Why President Trump is targeting the EU and not Brexit Britain

Two-charts Starmer? The 2 charts Sir Keir needs to stave off any idea of tariffs on the UK

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

Unlike the EU, the UK is not yet on the list of countries against which the US is imposing tariffs

In today’s report, the Facts4EU.Org think-tank summarises why it is the EU that is now being targeted by President Trump for tariff threats - the UK has only been caught up very marginally in a worldwide regime on steel.

This important report contains the following :-

Is the political landscape changing in the UK and Europe?
A summary of why Trump is targeting the EU but not the UK
The facts and figures comparing UK-US and EU-US trade
The ‘Project Fear’ merchants are back, peddling their wares on UK steel – Why they are wrong (again)

The four main issues on President Trump’s mind in relation to foreign policy are trade, defence, imported illegal migrants, and imported illegal drugs. It is the first two of these in particular which have relevance to the UK and Europe, because on each of these subjects the US President has long made accusations against the EU, dating back to his first presidency.

On each of these subjects it is important to differentiate between the US President’s statements about the EU compared with the UK.

Trade in goods

Whilst the EU has been singled out for what President Trump considers to be the EU’s unfair trade practices, the UK has not.

President Trump claims that EU27 countries subsidise ranges of their portfolios of goods and ‘dump’ products onto the US market. Furthermore, he has drawn attention to the one-sided nature of tariffs in EU-US trade in many areas. Below is one example.

Tariffs on imported vehicles - four times higher in the EU

EU vehicles imported into the US : 2.5%
US vehicles imported into the EU : 10%

Importantly, trade is one area where it is appropriate to discuss the EU as an entity and not as 27 individual countries. Trade is one of the areas of EU activity where the EU Commission is deemed to have ‘sole competence’. It is the Commission that sets tariffs, quotas, free trade agreements, etc, not Germany, France or any of the other EU member countries.

As a result of Brexit, the UK is free to follow its own independent trade policy. The fact that the various governments in power since the UK formally left the EU have failed to take full advantage in sweeping away swathes of tariffs inherited from the EU is regrettable. However the UK’s new independence means that this situation can only improve. This is unless - of course - the current Labour government continues with its policy of aligning more closely with EU policies and rules, instead of doing the precise opposite as it should do.

The trade balance with Trump’s USA – EU vs UK

With some high profile exceptions, (the US automotive industry is part of the nation’s pride), President Trump and his advisors will be looking at the overall trade picture between the US and its trading partners. Below we re-confirm why the President has set the EU in his sights whereas the United Kingdom has not been mentioned in relation to new tariff regimes.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Trade with Trump’s USA – EU vs UK

1. US trade balance last year, (Oct 2023-Sept 2024), goods & services, in $’s billions

With the UK : A surplus of +$15bn per year
With the EU : A deficit of -$150bn per year

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge
[Source : US Bureau of Economic Administration (BEA), latest figures, accessed 13 Mar 2025.]

2. Value of goods exports to USA : UK versus EU, 2023

(Most UK trade with the US is in services)

UK’s goods exports to US : $ 65.4bn ( $65,396m)
EU’s goods exports : $ 579.4 bn ($579,548m)

Trade tariffs are only on goods – and the USA’s trade deficit with the EU on goods is even worse

It is sometimes forgotten that trade tariffs only apply to goods and are only applied by the country importing those goods into their country. Our chart above shows the trade balance as a whole – for the total values of goods AND services.

If we look only at goods (where tariffs can be applied), then the EU’s surplus - and the US’s deficit – in that trading relationship is even worse for President Trump’s America. From a trade deficit of $150bn for gods and services together in 2023, this grows to a huge $201.6 billion deficit in respect of the goods-only trade.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The Goods Trade with Trump’s USA – EU vs UK

US goods-only trade balance last year, (Oct 2023-Sept 2024), in $’s billions

With the UK : A surplus of +$9.7bn per year
With the EU : A deficit of -$201.7bn per year

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025 - click to enlarge
[Source : US Bureau of Economic Administration (BEA), latest figures, accessed 13 Mar 2025.]

Steel and aluminium – Will this really affect the UK economy? If so, by how much?

To be clear, what has been imposed by President Trump is a worldwide US tariff on steel and aluminium imports into the US and this is not currently a matter for country-specific tariffs. The UK has not been targeted specifically, but may be ‘caught in the crossfire’, so how much are we talking about?

Media organisations such as the BBC have gleefully reported that the UK trade body, UK Steel, estimates the value of these goods exported to the US to be approximately £364m (c. $473m). However, this equates to only around 0.7% of total UK goods exports to the USA. The UK’s steel-making industry is a tiny fraction of what it once was, and with it now set to shrink even further it seems highly likely that any impact on the UK economy of Trump’s tariffs will be so small it will not even be noticed. Naturally this is not to belittle any impact on the firms concerned, and on those whom they employ, but we are simply putting things into context for the UK overall.

We have seen the usual alarmist reports from left- and EU-leaning think-tanks suggesting that even if the UK is not specifically targeted by President Trump, then the UK’s economy will nevertheless suffer. This has of course been reported by the likes of Sky News and they include forecasts of a drop in UK GDP of between 2.5% and 3% over five years. As with the anti-Brexit claim of a 4% drop in GDP over 15 years, this is merely another forecast and is based on no evidence.

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[ Sources: US Bureau of Economic Administration (BEA) | EU Commission ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Thurs 13 Mar 2025

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Reader Comments 10

1. LuxuryBalloon , Thursday, March 13, 2025, 08:52:

Good to see the UK willingly accepting any tariff that Trump imposes on us. Trump will like that.
Very naughty of Canada and the EU to put retaliatory tariffs up against Trump. Trump won’t like that.

2. Ashley Great Britain , Thursday, March 13, 2025, 09:35:

1 LuxBalloon.
-
Your hopeless man.
-
Even if we get slightly affected in the short term, Trumps tarrifs are good.
The EU needs to feel the real world too.

3. Gazzablack , Thursday, March 13, 2025, 11:39:

1, LB
.
The only tariffs impacting the UK are the tariffs on Steel and Aluminium.
These are tariffs levied on EVERY country, whereas the UK has not been included as a target for the punitive tariffs levied on the EU.
.
And talking of Canada, it now has a Prime Minister who isn't even an MP.
Carney, who hasn't been subjected to any kind of election from the Canadian electorate, rejects the idea of Canada being subsumed into a neighbouring state, in stark contrast to his opinion that the UK should.

4. Gazzablack , Thursday, March 13, 2025, 11:58:

3, me
.
The question:-
What have Canada and the EU got in common?
.
The answer:-
The occupant of the top job in both have been chosen without a vote from their respective electorates.

5. LuxuryBalloon , Thursday, March 13, 2025, 12:41:

4 Gazza … we need to kick Canada out of CANZUK asap.

6. Gazzablack , Thursday, March 13, 2025, 13:34:

5, LB
.
We need to review your meds cupcake

7. KB , Thursday, March 13, 2025, 15:26:

Trump views VAT as effectively being an import tariff.
That's 20% in the UK, and there are going to be reciprocal tariffs.
Anyone know what is going to happen there ?

8. gazzablack , Thursday, March 13, 2025, 22:29:

.
Scotch Whisky is the UKs largest food and drink export, and the US is the largest export market by value.
If the UK were still in the EU, that export market would have been obliterated today, with a 200% tariff due to the EU trade war with the US.
.
They'll be raising a celebratory dram at the Scottish distilleries over this.
Not to mention at the Gin, Rum, Vodka and Brandy distilleries in the UK
(And yes, there a few Rum, Vodka and Brandy distilleries in the UK)
And let's not forget those award winning English wines.
.
All will have a competitive advantage over their competitors selling into both the US and EU markets.
.
The only downside is the potential impact on Norther Irish Whiskey distilleries such as Bushmills.
.
.
By the way
Trump has cut off Russian oil sales to the European Union.
.
President Donald Trump ended the Biden policy that allowed sanctioned Russian banks to process EU payments for oil.
.
Huge blow to Russia as they shy away from temporary ceasefire and insist on "long term" settlement only.

9. Sparky , Friday, March 14, 2025, 05:34:

We didn't leave the EU to avoid tariffs, we left partly on the prospect of an FTA with the USA (we got CPTPP as a weak compensation). Judging by the way Trump has forced Ukraine (Russia not yet agreed, unless it has already been decided) to give up territory to Russia and allow USA to take minerals. How would a UK/USA FTA agreed with Trump look like? The NHS and food imports from USA would be high on the agenda for USA gains.
.
How will Northern Ireland be affected by any tariffs applied on the EU?
.
Trump is all over the place with tariffs, this week he has been criticising who signed the deal that allowed Canada to supply energy to the USA, it was Trump that signed the deal.
.
If the EU and USA get into a battle over tariffs which is likely to impact both economies, the UK will feel the impact.
.
Anyone considering buying a Tesla?

10. Gazzablack , Friday, March 14, 2025, 21:16:

9, sparkless.
.
An unexpected bonus then.
.
Like buying a scratch card because you've got nothing smaller than a tenner and the shop has no change.
You buy a scratch card just to make the transaction, then when you scratch it off you find you've won a few thousand.
.
It's a win we're delighted to bave
.
Nobody voted leave on the "expectation" of an FTA with the US
Hope he's expectation no.
And CPTPP is no "weak compensation"
.

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