They came, they integrated, they paid tax… and now, they’re packing up
Auf Wiedersehen! Germany Loses Its Best Migrants – What That Means for Britain
New German study reveals one in four skilled migrants is considering leaving the country
Germany’s own data reveals: the most qualified, best integrated migrants are looking to leave.
Meanwhile, those who cost the system most are staying.
What does this say about EU migration policy — and could Britain face the same?
In this latest research-led piece from Facts4EU.Org, we examine a newly‑published German government study from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the research arm of Germany’s Federal Employment Agency.
The findings are stark: more than 1 in 4 skilled migrants are considering leaving Germany. Among those who have been in the country longer — particularly those in work and earning well — the proportion seriously planning to leave rises sharply. Many cite growing hostility to immigration and a lack of long-term stability.
Chart copyright Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025
Even more striking is who is leaving: not those who are struggling to integrate or living on welfare, but the ones with jobs, language skills, and high qualifications—exactly those Germany hoped to keep.
Meanwhile, in the UK…
Nigel Farage, Leader of Reform UK, on why Britain must retain its wealth creators
Whilst not directly related, yesterday Reform UK was talking about the tax take from non-Dom's and from those who might leave the UK. Their new “Britannia Card” plan offers a flat £250,000 charge for non-doms, granting them 10–20 years of tax exemption – with that money handed directly to Britain’s lowest-paid workers. It’s being promoted as a pro-growth, pro-fairness plan to keep top contributors in the UK. Critics, however, warn it may cost up to £34 billion over five years and risk uncoupling tax revenue from those best able to pay it. |
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A UK Perspective: When the Smart Ones Leave
The implications for the UK are twofold. First, this underlines a broader challenge across Western Europe: retaining economically productive migrants who are mobile, well-educated, and increasingly disillusioned with life in the EU. Second, it raises serious questions about sustainability. The UK too has looked to immigration to fill NHS gaps and sustain tax receipts. But what happens when those very people see better prospects elsewhere — whether in the US, Canada, or even going home?
The UK does not publish equivalent data on migrants’ intentions to leave, but research into NHS leavers and visa patterns suggests similar pressures may be building.
Germany’s Economic Engine Is Losing Its Oil
Germany has long relied on immigration to patch its demographic shortfall — especially as the post-war baby boomers retire in vast numbers. But the IAB report hints at a structural failure in that plan. If the most economically productive migrants leave, Germany faces a double economic whammy:
- Loss of Tax Base
Skilled migrants contribute significantly more in taxes than they draw in public services. If they go, the revenue stream narrows — just as the welfare demands of an ageing population rise. - Worsening Dependency Ratio
Germany already has one of the oldest populations in the developed world. The Bundesbank warns that by 2035, there will be just two workers for every pensioner — down from four in 2000. Migrants were supposed to fix this. If the working, paying ones leave, the system buckles. - Productivity Drag
Integration challenges aside, Germany’s productivity growth is already stalling. Removing skilled, integrated workers — often with multinational experience and strong STEM backgrounds — adds to the pressure on employers, particularly in engineering, IT, and healthcare. - Public Spending Paradox
With fewer contributors and more dependents, the government faces higher social spending — not only on pensions and healthcare but also on integration programmes for migrants who are not in work and do not speak the language. In short: they’re spending more on those giving back less.
Chart copyright Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2025
Integration Blowback: When the Model Fails
This isn’t just about spreadsheets. Germany’s famed integration model — language schools, vocational training, fast-track employment schemes — was supposed to turn newcomers into net contributors. But the IAB study quietly reveals a harsh truth: for many, integration failed — and for the ones it succeeded with, the incentives to stay are disappearing.
Why?
- Rising anti-immigration sentiment
- Bureaucratic red tape
- Sluggish career advancement, especially in public sector roles
- Lack of permanent residency pathways or family security
The result: a policy that retains the least productive while alienating the most.
Observations
- Germany's immigration model was meant to secure its economic future — but this data suggests it may be doing the opposite.
- The story of migration is no longer just about integration, but about retention — especially of net contributors.
- What happens in Germany often signals where the EU as a whole is heading.
- Farage’s proposal, while different in scope, is part of the same wider debate: how to keep your most productive citizens from leaving.
In the UK, however, entirely the opposite problem is at the top of most people's minds - how to stop both legal and illegal immigration. This is yet another example of how it is impossible to be part of a bloc that tries to deal with everything.
It the EU stuck simply to being a trading bloc, then most people would have no problem with that - certain to some conditions. Introduce immigration policy, and similar policies, however, and membership of such a bloc is entirely inappropriate for the UK.
[ Sources: AIB | Destatis ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Wed 25 June 2025
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