Going on your hols with Rachel from Accounts? (With her at home as Chancellor, that is)

As the pound falls faster than her tears, you may have to make budget cuts too

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

Facts4EU contrasts the six months leading up to this year’s summer hols with last year’s

The Chancellor’s tearful state at PMQs on Wednesday did not only dominate the media, it had a mournful effect on the markets too. The hike in the bond markets is not something the average person has at the top of his or her mind, but if you are soon to be going abroad on holiday, the state of the pound is much more likely to be of interest.

Placed in the context of currency market fluctuations which tend not to move too wildly, the pound fell off the proverbial cliff yesterday, within minutes of the sight of Rachel Reeves appearing to be on the edge of a fully-fledged emotional breakdown.

Clearly a very bad time, but this was the worst possible place

It goes without saying that if the Chancellor had indeed received some truly bad personal news, then any normal person will have sympathy for her. Sadly, most of us have been there. That said, we are compelled to say that in that state she should under no circumstances have appeared before the cameras. And certainly not at the Prime Minister’s side. For her to do so at the most-watched event in the weekly parliamentary calendar shows an extraordinary lack of judgement.

Rachel Reeves must know by now that a Chancellor need only sneeze for the markets to catch a cold. Her visibly broken state was bad enough, but Sir Keir then compounded the error by failing on three occasions to confirm his Chancellor’s position was safe, in response to questions.

We will explain the importance of this last comment after looking at what happened to the pound.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The pound/euro exchange rate in the first six months of last year (2024),
contrasted with
The pound/euro exchange rate in the first six months of this year

1. Jan-Jun 2024 (Chancellor: Jeremy Hunt)

This year the pound has been volatile and the trend has been in a distinctly downward direction, as can be seen in our chart below. In the last few days the pound has tumbled as the Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre has been chipped away to nothing by the PM’s three progressive U-turns on cutting the scandalous benefits bill. Yesterday’s drama at PMQs then sent it into the vertical.

2. Jan-Jun 2025 (Chancellor: Rachel Reeves)

The sunlounger effect

On the first trading day last year, 02 Jan 2024, the pound stood at €1.1536 and on 02 July it had risen to €1.1799 (€1.18, as near as make no difference). If in January you were planning your summer holiday on the Med, by the time you were stretched out on a sunlounger you could perhaps afford to call over the ludicrously expensive beach waiter and order two more glasses of chilled Sauvignon Blanc, without it denting your budget.

On the first trading day this year, (01 Jan 2025), it stood at €1.1946 and on 02 July it had fallen to €1.1552. With your holiday pound not stretching as far as you had thought in January, you might be lying on a beach towel, having foregone the expense of a sunlounger completely. And all because of some tears before question time.

Without you, there's no us... We could make so much difference to getting our country back
But we can't do it without some serious help

Any credit card user

Quick One-off

From £5 - £1,000

Monthly

From £3 per month

Paypal Users Only - Choose amount first

Quick One-off

Monthly

It’s hard to believe, but Ms Reeves is the best they’ve got

In recent days, Facts4EU, Stand for Our Sovereignty, and a large proportion of the public have been deeply concerned at the erosions of UK sovereignty taking place with increasing rapidity under Sir Keir Starmer and his Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

GB News was the only major media outlet to cover this story as it developed, and then to cover the aftermath.

Meanwhile, a large proportion of media coverage has focused solely on the rebellion the PM has been facing by more than 100 of his backbenchers. This has left the more centrist and (relatively) spendthrift Chancellor sidelined.

The £5 billion bill to quell dissent

The overall effect of this has been to wipe out the £5 billion in budget cuts the Chancellor was expecting to gain from the changes to benefit arrangements. Put together with some other negative headwinds she has been facing – many of her own making – Rachel Reeves is now in a very difficult place if she wants to maintain her self-avowed belief in fiscal prudence.

The problem is that if she goes, there will be plenty lining up to replace her who come from the traditional, Denis Healy “Squeeze the rich ‘til the pips squeak” school of Marxist thinking. Add in a dose of the 1960s pools-winning Viv Nicholson’s “Spend, spend, spend” approach to pre-bankruptcy profligacy in public spending, and the UK’s economic prospects will start to look worse than France or Germany’s.

Observations

Now more than ever, Sir Keir needs his apparently unstable Chancellor to act as his shield while he attempts to put right his absence abroad on what seems like a semi-constant basis. In fact, if he leaves the country more often he may even qualify for non-doom status. History is full of examples of what happens to Prime Ministers whose backbenchers start to feel not only unloved but almost orphaned.

We very much hope this will put his mind firmly back on the country he is supposed to be running, rather than a country whose component, sovereign parts he seems to want to dispose of. He needs to spend more time in the Commons tea rooms and less on the plane that seems to be always fuelled and ready to jet him off on some international errand or another.

For this to work, he must hold on to his Chancellor at least until after her budget statement in October, for which she can then take all the flak.

As we approach “Two Year Keir”, here’s something to think about

Firstly, let's put today's report to one side as it's not the kind of report we are about to refer to. This year Facts4EU has either broken - or was in the very first vanguard of - every important story for the future of our country months before each became mainstream news.

Our latest is the Stand for Our Sovereignty campaign, which has exploded on social media. It seems we have once again anticipated events and the public mood. In the two days leading up to the Commons vote on surrendering powers to the EU, we hit more voters than in an average two month period. And that was with virtually no media coverage - or the first week we were on our own. Now some of the media are starting to cover our work on this.

If you have never donated to us, and you would like us to be here tomorrow, please do something right now. With the dangers this country is facing, we believe it would be a disaster if we did not continue to highlight these well in advance and start to do something about them. This simply can’t be done without funding. Has anyone got £300,000?

Please, please help us to carry on our vital work in defence of independence, sovereignty, democracy and freedom by donating today. Thank you.

[ Sources: Ban of England Spot Daily rates ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Fri 04 Jul 2025

Click here to go to our news headlines

Please scroll down to COMMENT on the above article.
And don't forget actually to post your message after you have previewed it!

Something to say about this? Scroll down for reader comments

Since before the EU Referendum, Brexit Facts4EU.Org
has been the most prolific researcher and publisher of Brexit facts in the world.

Supported by MPs, MEPs, & other groups, our work has impact.

We think facts matter. Please donate today, so that we can continue to ensure a clean Brexit is finally delivered.

Any credit card user

Quick One-off

From £5 - £1,000

Monthly

From £3 per month

Paypal Users Only - Choose amount first

Quick One-off

Monthly

PLEASE NOTE IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO COMMENT : You can write your comment under any existing comments below. After you have clicked to preview your comment, you MUST then click on the CAPTCHA system and send you comment, for it to be published. Thank you!

Reader Comments 16

1. Have You Wondered , Friday, July 04, 2025, 06:43:

.
Where were the tears from politicians when:
.
Farmers are committing suicide over Govt. reforms.
The Postmasters committed suicide
Delayed payout for Postmasters for their pain and injustice
The elderly suffering in the cold - WFA
Depriving justice to Rape Gang victims
Deliberate migrant obfuscation preempting UK social decline.
Deliberate payout obfuscation by every PM since since 1952 for Nuclear tests on personnel.
Grenfall
Cannot look after our forces who come back scarred and injured
Hilsborough cover up
Waspies
Maternity failures
MRSA scandal
Multiple Met Police issues
Thalidomide payments and scandal
Hemophiliacs payments and scandal
Covid
Windrush
.
Not least - the injustice in the exploitation of carers.
.
And you think Westminster has your welfare at heart?
.

2. Sparky , Friday, July 04, 2025, 14:27:

1 HYW. And all of those are home grown. I thought all our ills were the EU’s fault?

3. Sparky , Friday, July 04, 2025, 15:02:

Interesting analysis. The size of fluctuations is not significant but the trend is clear.
.
However: let’s look back to compare pre referendum to today.
GBP to Euro
Oct 2015 £1.40
Oct 2016 £1.11
Today £1.16
GBP to USD world reserve currency
Oct 2015 £1.54
Oct 2016 £1.22
Today £1.37
And this despite £445bn of QE in 2016 following ref result.

4. Gazzablack , Friday, July 04, 2025, 16:40:

3, sparkless
.
And the pound almost hit parity with the Euro in 2008
.
plus the pound to dollar exchange rate was a little over $1.25 in 1985
.
Care to explain cupcake?

5. NH , Friday, July 04, 2025, 18:29:

3. Sp.
What are you on about ?
The referendum was on June 23rd 2016 not October 2016 !
Your just selecting your own low points. (Eg. on Jan 2018 £1 = 1.41 Euro).
.
End June 2016 £1 = 1.17 Euro
Jan 2025 £1 = 1.21 Euro (pre Labour as shown above)
.
End June 2016 £1 = $1.34
Today £1 = $1.36
.
The effects of QE are to reduce the value of the UK pound not to increase it !

6. Sparky , Friday, July 04, 2025, 19:06:

4 G. 2008 was the financial crisis or did you miss it. 1985 too far back and several recessions since then
.
5 NH. Selecting points away from the ref and a settled period. And as I’ve said above, despite QE.

7. Gazzablack , Friday, July 04, 2025, 19:37:

6, sparkless.
.
Your missing the point.
Currency exchanges fluctuate, and people on the whole do NOT live their lives ruled by those fluctuations..
.
And just to note, the UK wasn't unique in being hit by the 2008 crisis.
.
1985, 2008, 2015, 2025
Too far back? I don't think so,
Economics still apply
.
And in your reply to NH, you ignore the fact that the EU indulged in QE (on steroids).

8. Have You Wondered , Friday, July 04, 2025, 21:34:

.
2. Sparky - Happy to send you my extensive library of EU corruption together with my observations, posted above, well illustrate my mantra:
Why does the UK (or any other nation) need another level of corruption and malfeasance above that which the UK has already?
.

9. NH , Saturday, July 05, 2025, 08:38:

6. Sp.
Between the referendum vote and when our trading relationship with the EU changed the £ / Euro rate varied between 1.09 and 2.0. There was no settled state, you have deliberately picked one of the lowest points to try and misrepresent Brexit. Since our trading relationship changed with the EU the £ has risen against the EU to the peak of 1.21 shown above.
.
The Labour party are not just effecting the value of the pound they are keeping inflation high, mortgage and rent rates high, car finance and other finance costs high, energy prices high and creating business failures and unemployment. Since being elected they have created huge uncertainty which has destroyed business confidence and investment. The recent problems have created even more uncertainty as Kier Starmer has demonstrated he can not lead the party and they no longer have an economic policy.
.
You have previously bragged about voting for the Labour Party. If you had any integrity at all you would admit that you were wrong about the Labour Party just as you were wrong about Brexit.

10. Sparky , Saturday, July 05, 2025, 09:50:

Re post 3. I could have selected July 2014 before a ref was announced. At that point GBP to USD was £1.69 and GBP to Euro was £1.42. Whichever way you look at it the GBP rate against the USD and the Euro dropped after the ref and apart from Covid and Liz Truss has hardly fluctuated. Again this is despite the QE.
.
9 NH. I haven’t bragged about voting Labour. I said I was a natural Conservative but after the chaos of Brexit couldn’t vote Cons at the last election and as you will have guessed there is absolutely, absolutely, absolutely (that should be enough absolutely’s) vote for Nigel Farage. It was Nigel that has given us Brexit by making immigration the key issue.

16 comments, page 1 of 2

Add comment:

Please note: Your email address is never published unless you choose to enter it.