How will Sir Keir impress Trump in the US on Thursday, against numbers like these?

Russia now spends 3 times as much as the UK on defence, as a share of GDP

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

Starmer is expected to hike UK spending by a pitiful 0.2% to 2.5% of GDP, while Putin is spending 7.1%

Today (24 Feb 2025) is the third anniversary of the illegal invasion of the sovereign country of Ukraine by President Putin’s Russian forces. A military operation which was expected to take four days and result in the capture and toppling of the government followed by the installation of a Soviet puppet regime has proved to be rather more difficult than the Russian President thought.

With President Trump actively engaged in achieving an end to the war by negotiating with the Russians, without Ukrainian, British, or EU involvement, the Brexit Facts4EU think-tank is publishing the results of our latest research to inform the ongoing debate.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Report Summary

What Sir Keir’s up against : Putin’s spend on defence in last five years
Starmer’s visit to see President Trump on Thursday
How is the UK doing on defence and how does the EU shape up?

1. What Sir Keir’s up against : Putin’s massive uplift in defence spending in the last five years

In light of Sir Keir’s expected announcement in Washington on Thursday (see below) of a planned increase in the UK’s defence spending as a share of GDP, Facts4EU presents an assessment of the military equation in relation to the UK, the EU, and Russia. Specifically we have analysed the latest data on Europe’s military spending in the last five years, compared to Russia’s.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Defence spending, the UK and Russia, 2019-2024

1.1 Russia now spends 3 times as much as the UK on defence, as a share of GDP

Russia’s percentage, 2024 : 7.1%
The UK’s percentage, 2024 : 2.3%

1.2 Russia’s % share of GDP spent on defence since just before the war has increased by almost three-quarters

Russia's increase in % of share of GDP on defence : 73.2%
Over the same time, the UK’s has risen by : 4.5%

Russia’s defence spend as a proportion of GDP has grown 16 times faster than that of the UK

1.3 In currency terms, (not adjusted for inflation), Russia’s defence spend has soared by almost 90% since it invaded Ukraine

UK : 22%
Russia : 89.5%

2. Starmer’s expected announcement in Washington

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is visiting Washington on Thursday for talks with President Trump. Originally billed as the first visit by the leader of a western country, we now know that President Macron of France has beaten him to it. Today Macron is in Washington, although quite what he can say or promise to President Trump when the EU Commission effectively controls French security, foreign and trade policy is yet to be seen.

It has not been announced what Keir Starmer will say or promise to the US President on Thursday, but thanks to Brexit the independent UK now has a free hand, unencumbered by EU policies and by vetoes on these by any of the 27 EU member countries. It is currently rumoured that the PM will promise an uplift of UK defence spending from 2.3% to 2.5%, by a date yet to be stated but rumoured to be 2028.

The word from Washington is that if Sir Keir wants to make an impact, he will have to guarantee an increase in expenditure on defence to at least 3% of GDP. We comment on this in our ‘Observations’ below.

3. How does the UK shape up against the EU?

For many years we have reported on the appalling state of affairs in the EU, where those EU countries who are also NATO members failed to come close to meeting the NATO minimum defence spending target they agreed to in Cardiff in 2014 at a NATO summit.

The target most readers will be aware of is for member countries to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defence and below we show how countries are performing against this. This is the ‘headline target’. Then in section 3b below we look at a little known secondary target.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

3a. The NATO target of 2% of GDP on defence

3b. The NATO target of 20% of the 2% to be spent on capital expenditure

The secondary target which is rarely mentioned but which we have often reported on, is that a minimum of 20% of this should be capital expenditure, i.e. military hardware. This is of course vital, as there is little point having personnel, headquarters, training, etc, for an army, navy, and air force, if they have no guns, ships, or planes with which to go into combat.

Below we show the performance against this 20% capital expenditure target of the EU NATO countries compared to the performance of the UK.

NATO’s ‘20% of the 2% on capital expenditure’ target

Observations

Sir Keir Starmer's meeting with President Trump in Washington on Thursday is significant on a great many levels. For the interests of the UK there are two key issues.

The first is securing a let-out for the UK on the large tariffs which Trump plans to impose on the EU for imported goods. Whilst this is far more important for the EU and particularly Germany and its manufacturing industry, it nevertheless matters that the UK gains an exclusion.

Secondly there is the question of a trade deal, blocked by Joe Biden when he was President. The US is the UK's largest export market by far, much larger than any EU country including Germany. For the UK to secure a trade deal which assisted the service sector would be very helpful.

Defence is obviously on the President's mind at the moment. On this third anniversary of Putin's illegal invasion of Russia, Facts4EU felt it would be timely to remind the Prime Minister of just what Putin has done. His enormous increase in spending on his military - which we will not call defence spending as it is used in his aggressive behaviour towards surrounding countries - is very worrying. The UK government has had years to respond, by increasing its defence budget but instead has overseen a fall in the UK's defensive capabilities.

For 10 years the Facts4EU think-tank has advocated for an increase from around 2% of GDP, where it has been for some years, to 3.5%. Now that we have lost so much time, and given the increasing global threats in Europe and around the world, a step change is now called for.

We await Sir Keir's announcement in hope more than expectation.

Please, please help us to carry on our vital work in defence of independence, sovereignty, democracy and freedom by donating today. Thank you.

[ Sources: NATO | SIPRI | EU Commission (Eurostat) | UK Office for National Statistics ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Mon 24 Feb 2025

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Reader Comments 12

1. Sparky , Monday, February 24, 2025, 08:45:

Starmer should be talking to Trump in the language he understands. The USA may be spending much more on military than others but sales of USA military hardware to UK and Europe increased by 49% in 2022 to $205 billion. The USA has benefited massively from the war in Ukraine.
.
The best Minister for Defence we have had for some time Ben Wallace was on QT this week and highlighted how UK spending on defence has been increased by tinkering of the books, including Ukraine support as core military budget and including VAT receipts in defense spending.

2. Gazzablack , Monday, February 24, 2025, 10:02:

Two Tier will lie, it's what he does.
He'll get short shrift from Trump.
.
Trump though should be mindful of the words of a couple of the USA's founding fathers:
.
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
- Thomas Jefferson
.
He who would trade freedom for security deserves neither freedom nor security
- Benjamin Franklin
.
Trump should also be mindful that the only time that NATO article 5 has been invoked was by the US, which ultimately propelled it's European NATO allies into expensive military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.
.
As for the question of elections in Ukraine, the fact that 20% of the country is under Russian occupation, and an estimated 3 million Ukrainians are living under Russian occupation, would surely be enough to invalidate any elections.

3. LuxuryBalloon , Monday, February 24, 2025, 10:24:

I am a bit confused about graph 3a whose header states it is for 2024 and the source of the data is from SIRPI. The online SIRPI Military Expenditure Database only covers the period 1949-2023.
My confusion was further compounded by Germany’s government claim on 20 Jan 2025 that it had met NATO 2% defence spending target in 2024.

4. Ashley Great Britain , Monday, February 24, 2025, 11:43:

How embarrassing that Kier Starmer is the UK envoy and the face of Britain to present to Trump. Hope Trump really lays into him over EU appeasment, immigration, woke ideology, freedom of speech etc etc etc.
It's very telling that we put more faith and trust into a US president than a UK prime minister. Labour don't even have the uk's best interests at heart.

5. NH , Monday, February 24, 2025, 12:08:

1. Sparky
You make some strange comments. All major defence companies are international companies, if they are not it's because they are no good. BAE sells over 40% of it products to the USA and over 30% of it's employees are in the USA. Rolls Royce also sells over 30% of it's products and services to the USA with much of it in the defence sector. The USA accounts for over 50% of the addressable world defence market which is open to all NATO countries. All defence companies have benefited from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
.
The object is to provide to provide a strong defence deterrent so we do not have to go to war. If the USA has the best equipment it's because they have invested more over many years. All we are seeing in the EU is the normal dysfunctional system with each country pursuing it's own national interest. The UK and the USA have the same national interests and it's imperative we maintain our strong defence relationship.

6. KB , Monday, February 24, 2025, 12:51:

I don't know why there is so much emphasis on how much money you chuck at it. Surely what we should be targeting is amounts of hardware and numbers of personnel.
I don't even think all countries calculate GDP the same.
Here in the UK it is fictional. A percentage of GDP is a notional amount assigned for the rental that owner-occupiers would pay if they were renting their home. No money is exchanging hands but it contributes to UK GDP. What a fiddle.
I don't know what level of fiction other countries' GDP calculations are, but they are not all the same.

7. KB , Monday, February 24, 2025, 13:24:

On Active Personnel the UK is 36th in the world (144,400), behind Italy, France (270,000) and Germany (183,500), and only slightly in front of Greece, Spain and Poland, which have smaller populations.
On Main Battle Tanks (227) we are behind Poland, Spain, Germany and Greece, and slightly ahead of France (222)
On Combat Aircraft the UK (145) is behind Spain, France (282), Germany (209), Italy (221) and Greece.
We DO have TWO aircraft carriers, more than anyone else in Europe, but not many aircraft on them.
I think we need to be asking where all this 2.3% of GDP is actually going before we do anything else. It seems very strange that we question throwing money at the NHS and then think of simply throwing money at the defence budget.

8. terence patrick hewett , Monday, February 24, 2025, 14:56:

@KB
The UK's Standing Army has never been big because the UK's European adventures have always been in the nature of 'Expeditionary Forces' ever since the 100 Years War. The Navy has always been paramount, and latterly the RFC/RAF. And so it will remain.

9. NH , Monday, February 24, 2025, 15:02:

3. LB, "Germany’s government claim on 20 Jan 2025 that it had met NATO 2% defence spending target in 2024."
As far as I am aware after the invasion of Ukraine Germany allocated some off-budget "special funding" to defence which is not part of their "defence budget" and is due to expire in 2027. They have also included items such as road and rail transport work, Foreign office, Ministry of Finance etc in their defence costs which are not normally accepted as defence costs. This seems to be why they dispute the official NATO spending figure.

10. NH , Monday, February 24, 2025, 15:25:

7. KB
I agree that the UK defence capability is severely depleted at the moment and it needs serious investment. However it's not about the quantity it's about the quality. Defence is now very technical and changing very rapidly. The defence industry is presently being reshaped by our experience of Ukraine as battle tanks are being quickly destroyed by drones. Defence specialists say approximately 4000 battle tanks and 6000 other fighting vehicles, from both sides, have been destroyed by drones in Ukraine. It's now far more important to have intelligence, cyber security, defence shields, jamming techniques, drones etc. etc. than tanks and planes that can be destroyed easily.

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