Shame EU can’t negotiate as fast as Ed Davey’s 10-Minute Rule Bill to rejoin Customs Union

EU’s 25 years negotiating South American deal… And French want to sink it – again

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

And the LibDems want to go back into THIS?

Last week a ten-minute rule bill was introduced by Ed Davey’s LibDems to rejoin a modified form of the EU Customs Union. The Bill passed on what might be described as a technicality when the vote was tied and Madam Speaker cast her vote in favour. Ten-minute rule bills are of course not binding but it had the effect of re-igniting the issue.

Ironically this came the week before the EU re-ignited a trade deal which the UK would be part of, if it rejoined. This is not, however, a deal which the EU can be proud of, if it ever gets signed.

A world where it takes 25 years to negotiate a trade deal - which still isn't agreed

If the UK were to rejoin the Customs Union, it would be accepting a world where it takes 25 years to try to negotiate a trade deal - and yet the deal in question still it looks like going into its 26th year.

We have lost count of the number of times the EU Commission has announced the signing of this particular deal, called Mercosur. Unless you have been a regular reader of Facts4EU over the past 10 years you will not have heard of Mercosur. The grouping contains the following four countries:

Argentina
Brazil
Uruguay
Paraguay

Ursula von der Leyen’s pre-Christmas trip to Latin America looks in jeopardy

Everything was set up for a grand signing on this coming Saturday, 20 December. The latest negotiations were ‘agreed’ on 06 December. Unfortunately, no-one appears to have remembered the ‘revolting’ French farmers. They have been involved on previous occasions and this time, it seems, is no different.

The EU Commission President is still hoping to visit Brazil following the Mercosur summit which will take place in the Brazilian city of Foz do Iguaçu. In order to do this, she will have to satisfy the French during a week when the entire Commission and the 27 members are trying to reach agreement on the Ukrainian deal – by no means certain.

The French and their farmers

This comes against a background where the French Government of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu and President Emmanuel Macron are desperately trying to sound tough for their farmers.

Faced with the anger of these farmers, the government is probably trying to offer itself a reprieve.

On Sunday, December 13, Emmanuel Macron estimated “that at this stage the deal is not there to protect French farmers. The French requirements have not been met.”

Also, in putting forward the position of the government, he asked the President of the Commission to postpone the examination of the agreement of Mercosur, according to the entourage of the President of the Republic.

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His comments followed on from his Prime Minister’s views, as expressed by the Matignon (No.10) spokesman:

“France is calling for the December deadlines to be postponed to continue the work and obtain the legitimate protection measures of our European agriculture.
"While a Mercosur summit is announced for 20 December, it is clear in this context that the conditions are not met for any vote (of the States) on an authorization to sign the agreement.”
This does not sound promising from the Spokesman for the Matignon. Pictured, France's latest Prime Minister.

What if the deal IS actually done?

One year ago, it was again thought that a deal was about to be signed. At the time we compared it with the UK doing a deal to join the CPTPP trade partnership.

The UK was the first country in the world to join the CPTPP since its formation and was the first member from Europe. The EU’s approaches to the CPTPP have so far been abortive and are likely to remain so.

The CPTPP is very different to the EU. This is a free trade agreement, not a customs union or a single market.

CPTPP members can pursue independent trade policies with non-CPTPP members, as the UK has already done
It does not require the UK to obey its laws, nor its foreign or defence policies
Nor does it require a massive annual membership fee to subsidise the smaller and poorer member countries
The CPTPP does not have political institutions such as a parliament or an unelected Commission, as is the case with the EU
The CPTPP deal does not separate Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom, as the EU has done

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

UK’s agreed deal with 11 Trans-Pacific countries vs. EU’s failed deal with a few South American countries

GDP of EU’s failed target market compared to GDP of market UK joined last New Year

GDP of UK’s new trading bloc countries : $11.256 billion
GDP of EU’s failed trading bloc deal : $2,689 billion

[Source : World Bank data for 2023.]

Combined GDP of CPTPP countries is over FOUR TIMES that of GDP of EU’s hoped-for trading bloc

It is worth looking back over previous times it was announced that the EU’s Mercosur deal was done. Back in 2019, here is the former EU Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, six years ago.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

25 years of talks – now on hold again?

"It takes two to tango in South America"

In 2019 this deal was triumphantly announced by the EU Commission, then led by Jean-Claude Juncker, after 20 years of talks. Bizarrely the announcement was made in Osaka, Japan.

“We stand before you as the proud co-owners of a trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur.
“I like to use words with care but this is a truly historic moment. This agreement has been two decades in the making. The negotiations started 20 years ago yesterday – on 28 June 1999 in Rio de Janeiro! They have been long – and often tough – and we've come close before, but today we finally delivered.”
- EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, Osaka, 29 June 2019

Up until the end of 2023 the EU Commission’s website continued to parade the following :-

“The EU has concluded a trade agreement with the four founding members of Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) as part of a bi-regional Association Agreement.”
“On 28 June 2019, the European Union and Mercosur reached a political agreement for an ambitious, balanced and comprehensive trade agreement covering issues such as tariffs; rules of origin; technical barriers to trade; sanitary and phytosanitary measures; services; government procurement; intellectual property; sustainable development, and; small- and medium-sized enterprises.”

Jean-Claude Juncker and his EU Commission spoke too soon. It simply was not true that they had concluded a trade deal. This constituted gross disinformation.

Observations

Even if some last-minute accommodation is made with the French, the Mercosur negotiations are hardly a shining light of what it means to be in the EU’s Customs Union. For it to take 25 years to agree a trade deal with four countries on the other side of the Atlantic is not what one would call impressive. That said, the LibDems have always had a curious view of the EU, where everything in the garden is rosy.

For 10 years Facts4EU has been presenting the facts on all aspects of the EU, but facts are not what the LibDems have ever been interested in. The embarrassing farrago of long drawn-out, on-again off-again negotiations are typical of its trade negotiations.

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[ Sources: EU Commission | The Matignon | The Elysée Palace | French media ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Tues 16 Dec 2025

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Reader Comments 11

1. Ashley Great Britain , Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 08:18:

Trade deal still not signed!
The EU have a habit of lying to try and cover their ineptitude.
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If the deal was good for south America then it would probably already be in effect. No doubt though the EU wants far more than just trading apples and pears. Give us stuff, pay us, sign all these papers..
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The Lib Dems and the legacy parties can do one. We don't want a one sided detrimental customs union.
It's quite unbelievable how after voting to leaving the EU, they want to just blatantly sign us back up.
We hold them in utter contempt.

2. Have You Wondered , Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 08:39:

.
25 yrs and a lot of money and still no result?
.
Published on 17/07/2023 Brussels to invest €45bn in Latin America and Caribbean by 2027
The announcement came as leaders from both sides met in the Belgian capital for the EU-CELAC summit on Monday.
The European Union has committed to investing up to €45 billion in both Latin America and countries in the Caribbean by 2027.
"What we want to discuss today is how to further connect our people and our businesses, how to reduce risks and strengthen and diversify our supply chains, and how to modernise our economies in a way that reduces inequalities and benefits all," von der Leyen said on Monday.
"All of this is within our reach if we get the EU-Mercosur agreement over the finish line, and we are committed to resolving any remaining differences as soon as possible."
.
Via Chat GPT:
.
What has been discussed regarding money and Mercosur
Investment and cooperation plans linked to broader EU strategy
The EU’s Global Gateway initiative is a large investment strategy aimed at partner regions worldwide. Up to ~€300 billion could be mobilised globally between 2021-2027 under this initiative, and about €45 billion of that has been discussed as part of planned investment in Latin America & the Caribbean — not a direct payment tied to the Mercosur deal itself
Before the latest negotiations, the EU already provides around €200 million in cooperation funding cumulatively to Mercosur partners (e.g., Argentina ~€50 m, Brazil ~€70 m, Paraguay ~€80 m). Analysts said the EU offered to increase this significantly — potentially more than triple — but still only to the range of several hundred million euros.
.
Another bullet dodged by the Brexit vote !?
.

3. Mr Sceptic , Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 09:50:

David Frost was asked on 2022 what evidence in future would convince him Brexit had failed. He said: “One piece of evidence of failure would be if we are still debating this in parliament in five or six years’ time in the same way.”
Brexit continues to divide the country. And a divided country is a weakened country. And it is difficult for a weak country to stand up for democracy, free speech, its constitutions.

4. Have You Wondered , Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 09:56:

. 3. Mr. Sceptic : Bottom line - Why does the UK (or any other nation) need another level of corruption and malfeasance above that which the UK has already?
.

5. Mr Sceptic , Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 10:34:

4 Have you Wondered …Bottom-line: if you want to reduce the democratic rights of minorities … you need to divide and weaken the country first. And then claim that the weakening of the country is the fault of the minorities whose democratic rights you want to reduce.

6. Gazzablack , Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 11:14:

3, septic
.
Do you really think that if the vote had gone the other way that "Brexiteers" would have had a Damascene conversion and suddenly become deliriously happy with EU membership?
.
Do you really think that if we had not been given the opportunity to vote on our relationship with the EU that the pressures to hold such a vote would not have intensified?
.
Do you not believe that there would have been a political (and maybe even societal) backlash if our vote had been ignored?

7. Sparky , Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 12:06:

CPTPP! That old chestnut. Not heard anything about for some time so obviously making an impact. We wanted to join because USA were members but they left shortly before we joined. Canada and Mexico still haven’t ratified UK membership.
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At least the UK got favorable terms with the USA thanks to Brexit. What, Trump has suspended the US-UK Tech deal!!!!
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A Customs Union with the EU is more or less what was suggested would be the outcome of leaving the EU, although it was never specific, VoteLeave focused on the campaign not on the strategy (there never was a strategy)

8. KB , Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 12:07:

What exactly is this "modified" customs union ?
If we get a modified customs union, everybody else would want one too (so there will be no modified customs union).
What planet are they on ?

9. NH , Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 12:08:

This is not a serious proposal the Lib Dems are just trying to gain votes from the frustrated remainers. The Customs Union mainly deals with tariffs it does not remove "non tariff barriers" which are the main problem for trade within the EU.
.
In addition to giving them an undefined payment we would need to send most of the income from UK tariffs, from imports from the rest of the world, to the EU. In 2023 this income was £5.8 Billion and we would have had to have sent £4.35 Billion of this to the EU. With present EU tariff levels this could rise substantially.
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Prices would also rise for imports from non EU countries. If you wanted to buy a Chinese car the tariff imposed would rise from 10% to up to 33%. If you wanted to buy a German car the price would also be higher because there would be less competition to keep prices competitive.
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The worst thing that happened to the Lib Dems was when they became part of the Government. They had to admit that their manifesto promises were unaffordable and their support collapsed.

10. NH , Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 12:49:

7. Sparky
The USA £30 Billion tech investments announced as part of the "US-UK Tech Deal" had started before the Labour Government were elected. Most had already been through the long planning approval stage and other agreements had already been signed. The UK was apparently an attractive location because we are not subject to the EU's strict AI regulation.
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Labour resorted to the the normal political practice of announcing existing agreements as "new agreements" !

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