France just became a democratic desert – Are we seeing the end of the Fifth Republic?

Macron’s new ‘6% Prime Minister’ – Akin to King Charles appointing UK’s Green leader as PM

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

Deeply unpopular French President appoints deeply unpopular (and anti-British) Prime Minister

France woke on Friday to the shock news of an ardently anti-Brexit French Prime Minister having been appointed by President Emmanuel Macron, following the French general elections held two months ago. Macron’s appointee as French PM is none other than the bête noir of the EU Commission’s Brexit negotiations with the UK : Michel Barnier.

Barnier’s ‘Les Republicains’ party secured just 6% of the vote in the French general elections.

And yet he becomes French Prime Minister, by Presidential decree.

This is what now passes for democracy in France

British and international readers might ask how it is remotely possible for President Macron to ignore the democratically-expressed wishes of the French people by appointing an unloved bureaucrat as Prime Minister, from a party so unpopular that it could only achieve a level as low as that of the Greens in the UK general election (6.4%).

In the intervening months since the French elections, ithe French people have continued to be governed by President Macron’s own party - with no democratic mandate - headed up by Gabriel Attal who resigned as PM immediately after his group’s disastrous showing in the elections. Macron refused to accept Monsieur Attal’s resignation and kept him on until Thursday.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Deeply unpopular French President appoints deeply unpopular French Prime Minister

Round One – when all candidates and parties were available to French voters

President Macron’s own party secured a vote share of under 20%*
Michel Barnier’s party secured only 6.6% (5.4% in Round 2) of the vote
The French people clearly don’t want either of them
And yet these are the men they have as President and Prime Minister

* Note : Macron’s Renaissance Party votes can’t be separated from the total for the coalition he formed, which won 20.0% of the vote. We can therefore say with some confidence that because a proportion of these votes were for other parties in his coalition, Macron’s own party’s vote share was in the teens.

[Source: French Interior Ministry.]

“Oui, oui, mon ami, but how does this affect the British people and the United Kingdom?”

Below is a photo of Monsieur Barnier with his team when he was Chief Negotiator for the EU against the British following the UK’s Referendum on European Union Membership in 2016.

Michel Barnier and some of the EU Task Force for Relations with the United Kingdom - © EU Commission

Here is the architect of misery for all Brexiteers after the largest democratic mandate in British history, who incessantly repeated the totalitarian mantras of the EU and entertained the anti-democrats of the UK Parliament and their hangers on in Brussels on many occasions after the Referendum.

Barnier is the man who was responsible for imposing the most draconian and unreasonable demands on the United Kingdom - demands which no world leaders such as the current US President Biden would ever have accepted for their own countries.

Who won the French elections and why isn’t their leader Prime Minister?

In the first round of voting (when electors had a choice of all candidates and all parties before some of these were eliminated or withdrew before Round Two), Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National party won, with 29.3% of the vote. Including her ‘loose’ coalition with another party increases this vote share to 33.2%.

Comparison between UK's PM Starmer and France's PM Barnier

Sir Keir Starmer's Labour won 32.1% of the UK vote
This is a lower percentage than Le Pen's ticket (33.2%)
Barnier's party achieved less than ¼ of the success of either Le Pen or Starmer, and yet became French PM

The truly shocking face of French democracy in 2024

It might be said that the French people were presented at their general elections with a false prospectus.
They were given coalition groups to vote for at the elections.
Some of these coalitions had no chance of becoming governing coalitions, as we predicted at the time.
Since the elections the wrangles have been tortuous and often bitter and no consensus has been reached.

This coalition gerrymandering was done to stop the single most popular party in France from gaining power – that of Ms Le Pen..
The person whose party received the most votes in Round One – when it was still possible to vote freely as no-one had been eliminated – was Marine Le Pen.

Under the French Constitution President Macron has the sole power to invite an MP to form a government and become PM.
The people may have spoken through the ballot box but this means nothing.
Macron has not asked Ms Le Pen, merely (we understand) calling her to see if she will support other potential PMs.
Instead, two months after the elections, he has now appointed the person representing the party that came FOURTH on 6.6% of the vote.

In UK terms, this is the equivalent of HM King Charles asking either Carla Denyer or Adrian Ramsay, (co-Leaders of the Greens), to become Prime Minister, despite having only won 6.4% of the vote.

‘Le grand déficit démocratique’

We end with the words of Olivier Faure, Leader of ‘Le Parti Socialiste’, and broadly the equivalent of the UK’s Sir Keir Starmer in party political terms.

Olivier Faure, Leader of ‘Le Parti Socialiste’

“We are going through a real regime crisis. The French can legitimately ask themselves the reasons why they are being called to go and vote.
In all European democracies, one starts by calling on the group that came out on top to govern. But not in France.”
- Olivier Faure, Leader of Le Parti Socialiste, 05 Sept 2024

Observations

Are we seeing the end of the Fifth Republic?

Plucked seemingly out of nowhere by President Macron in an act of desperation, 'Bosun Barnacle' Barnier is now sticking to the hull of the Macron supertanker as it ploughs on against rising political seas.

Amongst many phrases France has given the world, ‘coup d’etat’ is perhaps one of the best-known worldwide. Literally a ‘blow of the state’, it is perhaps the perfect way to describe the latest move by Emmanuel Macron.

In the mid 2020’s, the French people now have a deeply unpopular President they cannot remove until 2027, and a new and deeply unpopular Prime Minister whom 94% never remotely voted for and with whom the various coalition parties, (which far outperformed his), are unlikely to cooperate.

What does this mean for Sir Keir Starmer’s plans to ‘stop the boats’ and to ‘align closely’ with the EU?

In Barnier, Keir Starmer now has a silver-tongued, white-haired, ex-diplomat and failed Presidential candidate with whom to negotiate. As things stand, Monsieur Barnier has far more pressing matters requiring his attention than Mr Starmer’s desire to “stop the boats”. Not the least of these is his need to survive his first vote in the new French Parliament – that of “No confidence”.

Should Barnier lose this vote, France will continue to be ungovernable and Mr Starmer will continue to have no-one at his level with whom to press the case for more action on illegal migrants.

Should Barnier win the no confidence vote, finally Starmer will find out what it was like for Brexit’s negotiators to deal with Barnier in the dark days following the EU Referendum, when Barnier imposed a brutal exit agreement on a weak UK government.

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[ Sources: French Interior Ministry | EU Commission | Les Republicains | Midi Libre | EESC ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Tues 10 Sept 2024

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Reader Comments 14

11. Diane , Wednesday, September 11, 2024, 10:59:

Daily T 08/9/24 'Comment' - a few interesting points from a good piece by the French correspondent Ms Moutet: The Melenchonista Left ( & their cowed Socialist and Green allies ) are incandescent that, after they swore to table a no-confidence vote on any P M picked out of Macron's hat, the embattled president discounted them altogether and started horse-trading with the one silent partner that was amenable, Marine Le Pen. (and with 11 million votes, she would have won more MPs than Keir Starmer under the UK's first past the post system ) Endorsing M Barnier MLP said she wanted a prime minister who would not "despise" her voters and her party. M Barnier during his short-lived run for the presidency in 2022 ran on a strong anti-unchecked immigration platform. At that time he called for a four year moratorium on legal entries onto French soil, as well as a referendum to ask the French what number of legal immigrants they would agree to. Also "made noises" on possibly altering European laws that allow free movement within the Schengen space so that no doubt carried weight. As one might expect there was obviously pressure to install him from other quarters. Macron's chief of staff is mentioned as having been sounding out over weeks prior, French business and civil society grandees and gaining their approval for the appointment. It remains to be seen if he brings the stability being sought.

12. John Jones , Wednesday, September 11, 2024, 17:52:

9. NH
"..What I do know is that the EU has a huge problem with getting France to comply with Euro stability rules without making the EU even more unpopular in France. It's very likely that this will be a major consideration in who Macron appoints..."
So,no evidence but supposition.
The Eurozone aka Euroland is inherently unstable - it's only a monetary union not a fiscal or economic union.
Italy and Greece are way outside the financial and budgetary stability pact to give it its proper name. Barnier can do sq root of FA to bring France back into its ambit in 12 or 24 months.
Barnier is a technocrat a stooge - a functionary at the fag end or past the fag end of his career. He's what is called a useful fool - a compromise candidate whom M Le Pen can get rid of at the snap of her finger's. He'll do what Macron tells him to do whilst on borrowed time.
Sure the Commissar's of Brussels are likely to welcome his appointment. But like you've no evidence, IMHO he's the least worst candidate who buys Macron, a lame duck president 6 month's at most. Just a feeling in my water.

13. Parky , Wednesday, September 11, 2024, 21:57:

The decision to form an Economic and Monetary Union was taken by the European Council in the Dutch city of Maastricht in December 1991, and was later enshrined in the Treaty on European Union (the Maastricht Treaty).
Convergence criteria for countries interested in joining the EMU include reasonable price stability, sustainable and responsible public finance, reasonable and responsible interest rates, and stable exchange rates.

14. John Jones , Wednesday, September 11, 2024, 22:49:

13. Parky
Sure, without a capital market union, debt market union or fiscal union the idea of full Economic and Monetary Union is a pipedream.
Sure, it might happen in 20-30 years at the slow rate they are currently going.
Oh , the Euro monetary system has to converge too - it's for the fairies. As is so much of the EU dream.

14 comments, page 2 of 2

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