Since 2016, UK exports to Trump’s USA grew 1.5 TIMES FASTER than exports to EU

Might they grow even faster with a pro-Brexit, pro-UK Donald Trump back in the White House?

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

The stark economic facts of life for Sir Keir Starmer - and the questions he now faces

Yesterday (Mon 11 Nov 2024) we showed that President-Elect Donald Trump’s USA bought £187 BN in goods and services from the UK last year. This next part in the Facts4EU.Org exports series is even more revealing. Since the EU Referendum, Brexit Britain’s exports to the US have grown over one-and-a-half times faster than its exports to the EU.

A Brexit Facts4EU.Org exports series
The independent UK selling to the world

PART I - Brexit Britain’s fastest growing export markets for goods and services, 2016 – 2024
PART II - Brexit Britain’s biggest customers last year (2023)
PART III (This report) - Post-Brexit, UK exports to Trump’s America grew 57% faster than exports to the EU
PART IV - UK now has EIGHT trade deals with US states - More to come in President Trump's America?
PART V - The future : Starmer's government fixated on pivoting back to the EU and missing a huge opportunity?

Using the latest official data from the Office for National Statistics, we demonstrate just how important it is for Sir Keir Starmer to start mending the relationship with ‘The Donald’ - a relationship which has particularly been affected by the rash comments of his new Foreign Secretary, David Lammy. Our analysis shows how the British economy has benefited from exports to the US, both while Donald Trump was President from 2016-2020 and up to last year.

Our report indicates a huge opportunity for the United Kingdom, now that a pro-UK and pro-Brexit US President will soon be back in the White House.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Exports of UK goods and services post-Referendum, 2016 – 2023

1. The EU’s exports of goods and services to the US compared to the EU27, 2016 – 2023

The chart below shows very clearly that the UK’s exports of goods and services to the US have grown by almost 70% since the Referendum in 2016. This rate is over 1.5 TIMES the growth rate of UK exports to the EU in the same period.

[Source: ONS, Nov 2024.]

2. Total 2023 UK exports to the EU27 and to the Rest of the World (RoW)

EU27 : £356.3 bn (41.4%)
RoW : £505.0 bn (58.6%)

[Source: ONS, Nov 2024.]

The independent UK has been able to sign trade deals since leaving the EU

International trade is what is known as “an area of exclusive competence” for the EU Commission. In practice this means that EU member countries are prevented from striking their own trade deals with countries outside the EU and instead must wait – in many cases decades – for the Commission to do this.

A good example is the trans-pacific CPTPP trade deal which is due to come into force in one month’s time. Facts4EU last analysed this deal here, and it was given prominent coverage by GB News. In a matter of weeks the United Kingdom will become the first member of this important trading bloc outside of those who were the founder members.

This will mean being part of a trading bloc containing more consumers than the EU’s ‘Single Market’. It also has the potential to grow far larger – and much faster – than the EU in the coming couple of years. The EU tried – and failed – to secure membership for many years. The UK achieved it in less than two years.

Brexit Britain and President-Elect Trump’s USA

Many readers will remember when the then-President Obama visited the UK back in 2016. At a press conference he stood alongside the then-British Prime Minister David Cameron, who smiled as Obama threatened the British people that they would go “to the back of the queue” for a trade deal with the US.

We are now eight years further on from those dark days. In practice since that time, the UK’s exports have grown faster to the US than to the EU, as we have shown above.

Observations

In January, President Trump will have a Republican-controlled Congress and it is possible that a UK-US free trade agreement could be done. In the meantime, the UK’s innovative approach to doing State-by-State trade deals, started by Dr Liam Fox and continued by Liz Truss, Kemi Badenoch and others, seems to be working.

In Part IV we will look at the state-by-state trade pacts in more detail and the information this report contains is extraordinary. Don't miss it!

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[ Sources: Office for National Statistics | World Bank | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Tues 12 Nov 2024

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Reader Comments 14

1. Sparky , Tuesday, November 12, 2024, 05:33:

As far as exports to the USA, Brexit has changed nothing. The US economy has outgrown the rest of the world because of their energy independence and massive increase in Govt support following Covid.
.
The EU and UK economy has been impacted by the energy shock as a result of the Ukraine war but what the charts do show is a clear flattening of UK exports to the EU since leaving the EU. Well done Facts4EU.

2. Ashley Great Britain , Tuesday, November 12, 2024, 07:05:

1 Sparky.
-
Brexit has clearly and certainly improved uk Exports to the US.
We have new state by state deals which outweigh many EU countries in terms of value.
There is also now the real chance of much better uk/us trade with Trump approaching.
As usual you chirp up hoping people will believe what you say, just because you are saying it.
-
There is no clear flattening of UK Exports to the EU. They are steady. The EU will always buy a certain amount from the UK.
Our world trade prospects are about to flourish, further cementing our position outside the EU. That's if Labour don't stuff it all up.

3. Have You Wondered , Tuesday, November 12, 2024, 08:11:

.
How will Starmer square the fact that the USA might want a trade deal to pull the UK away from the EU but Starmer wants an idealogical socialist integration with the EU?
.
What will win - the good of the nation with trade or idealism?
.

4. Sparky , Tuesday, November 12, 2024, 08:27:

2 AGB. Brexit has not done anything for UK USA trade. This would have happened anyway with the impact of Ukraine and stimulus given to the US economy. Up until 2018 UK exports to EU are clearly above USA then drop and flatten out as. Clearly this is following the referendum and flattening after the UK left the EU.
.
Can’t see Trump doing anything for UK, especially as Brexit has given us a Labour Govt and Trumps America first policies.
.
Good analysis on BBC of the mishandling of immigration by UK Govt which eventually led to Brexit but it was UK Gov making, not the EU.

5. LuxuryBalloon , Tuesday, November 12, 2024, 08:49:

It seems that export growth to the USA is back at the pre-COVID levels, while export growth to the EU has not recovered to pre-COVID levels.

6. terence patrick hewett , Tuesday, November 12, 2024, 09:17:

Rejoiniacs are as obsessive as Jehovah's Witnesses. And just as crazy.

7. NH , Tuesday, November 12, 2024, 10:28:

1. Sparky, "The US economy has outgrown the rest of the world because of their energy independence"
Complete nonsense !
The major growth sector in the USA, by far, has been the technology sector and very little of this is energy intensive. The EU has helped them with this by helping them to avoid paying much tax on their global earnings.
.
Tesla went from selling a few thousand cars a year to having a higher value than the whole European car industry because it invested in the correct areas. While they were doing this EU politicians where encouraging EU manufacturers to invest in diesel engines.
.
1. Sparky, "massive increase in Govt support following Covid"
If economic success was that simple wouldn't the rest of the world be the same !
You seem to have forgotten about the massive ECB stimulus programs and the huge new EU debt program.
.
5. LB, "while export growth to the EU has not recovered to pre-COVID levels"
EU growth rates have not recovered to pre COVID levels despite all the huge stimulus programs. Successful exporters focus their activities on growth markets for obvious reasons.

8. KB , Tuesday, November 12, 2024, 12:16:

Let me tell you what will actually happen.
Trump will impose import tariffs on EU goods imports.
The EU will respond by increasing import tariffs on US goods and putting in complaints to the WTO.
Here's the kicker: the UK will stand in solidarity with the EU. We'll also increase tariffs on US goods and support the EU case in the WTO.
Labour will do this, but don't forget the previous Tory government would have done the same thing.

9. David , Tuesday, November 12, 2024, 13:49:

Reply to Sparky re comment 1.
Trade and the economy was always the secondary issue about leaving the EU.
The primary issue was always federalism - the obsession of the Eurocrats to create a United States of Europe
and turn Britain into the North-West province of a federal United States of Europe.
If only the Eurocrats would give up their obsession with creating a federal United States of Europe and
just concentrate on a European Common Market - like all other trading organisations such as ASEAN
and CPTPP.
ASEAN is not trying to create a United States of South-East Asia and the CPTPP is not trying to create a
federal union of Trans-Pacific countries - these two trading organisations are just that - trading organisations only.
Leaving the EU means we have avoided (for the time being) becoming just a province of a federal United States of Europe.
Arguments over trade are completely subservient to the overwhelmingly important point that, outside the EU, the UK
remains an independent country, no longer subservient to EU laws.

10. John Jones , Tuesday, November 12, 2024, 18:33:

1. Sparky
".but what the charts do show is a clear flattening of UK exports to the EU since leaving the EU. Well done Facts4EU..."
In life, it's best to look at it as it really is - not how lille old Sparky would like it to be.
The challenge you have is to conflate goods & services - it's true our goods exports & imports are down since 2016 - partially this.is due to leaving the single market ( especially for food amongst SMEs and micro Fred/shed/dog enterprises) -
It seems that internal goods substitution by SMEs/micros ie selling into UK market because of its sheer size & resilience has helped enormously - what's surprising is the good health of our services exports to the EU which are holding up - indeed they seem to have increased, even accounting for inflation since 2021.
You need to recall & accept that pre Brexit our overall trade with the EU was increasingly lower - Brexit gives us now & over time significant flexibility in whom we trade with.
Recall, even without an FTA we trade c 3 times more with the USA than Germany - our biggest trading partner in the EU. It will be vitally important to keep our trade with the US going so 2 Tier ought to be nice to Big Don - I predict Lammy will be let go within 6 month's - so he can spend more time with his family.

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