Observations

After tomorrow our world will start changing

Clearly Keir Starmer’s Labour will win tomorrow and he will become Prime Minister. The scale of his victory is less certain. Yes, it will be a landslide but we suspect the numbers will be less than the pollsters predict. Experience tells us that Labour supporters often don’t make the effort to actually vote – particularly in this case when they know Labour will win anyway.

We must stress that the Facts4EU.Org 'Poll of Polls' does not represent our prediction of the final result. We would call it very differently. It is merely an indication of what pollsters think might happen, but some of their results vary wildly from each other.

Reform versus the LibDems

We believe that Reform UK might perform better than the pollsters are predicting. Whether this translates into seats is down to the way their vote is distributed. We will certainly have the LibDems in Parliament with far more seats than a party (Reform) which gained a much higher vote share.

We may have a situation where almost one in six voters (who vote Reform) feel disillusioned and disenfranchised, which is not healthy for democracy. Some will say “’Twas ever thus” but this time the contrast and resentment might be more sharply defined. Whatever the results in the early hours of Friday morning, if we end up with Reform getting a 40% higher share of the vote than the LibDems, but ending up with less than 10% of the LibDems' number of seats, this is not a good look for democracy in the UK.

And what of the Tory wipe-out?

The really big question is whether the size of the Conservative Party’s annihilation in Parliament provokes a fundamental realignment in British politics. The rump that will be re-elected will consist of a great many One Nation Tories on the ‘social democrat’ fringe, wholly unrepresentative of the population at large. Many true Conservatives will lose their seats.

This leaves the door wide open for the initial discussions - which we know have taken place between Reform and certain senior Conservatives - to accelerate. Watch this space after the election…..

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