Brexit Britain is outperforming Eurozone, says influential Global S&P report

The Eurozone is tanking while Brexit Britain is banking it in

A Facts4EU.Org report on the latest S&P Global numbers shows UK far above Eurozone

The well-respected Standard & Poors global index for what is known as the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index - covering both manufacturing and services - rose to 52.1 for the UK in December, up from 50.7 in November.

This was the best performance of all the world’s major economies. A reading above 50 indicates growth.

Conversely the Eurozone as a whole continues to be in negative territory and is headed for recession – defined as two successive quarters of falling output.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

S&P Global PMI, December 2023

UK : 52.1 (indicating growth)
Eurozone : 47.6 (indicating recession)

[Source : S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index.]

Brexit Britain ended on a high at the close of 2023 but the Eurozone continued its fall

The United Kingdom’s economy outperformed that of the Eurozone throughout most of 2023 and indications are that it will continue to do so.

A ‘Purchasing Managers Index’ (PMI) might sound technical but it really isn’t. In short the respected S&P Global PMI gives early warning to governments and to the markets as to which economies are rising and which are expected to fall. It does not replace the official GDP figures for each country but it is usually a fairly reliable indicator of the direction of travel, ahead of the official figures.

Readers will know that there are perhaps rough seas ahead. This is no more true than in the Red Sea – the route to the Suez Canal - where Houthi militants backed by Iran are attacking allied shipping. This is forcing many major shipping companies to divert their container ships via the Horn of Africa, adding around 40 days to their journeys. The costs of this will impact all European countries.

Inflation is already rising again in the EU

Following the gradual reduction in inflation rates across Europe last year, many thought this trend would continue. Not so.

The latest official figures released this week for the EU’s Top 2 economies show :-

Germany : inflation up from 3.2% to 3.7%
France : inflation up from 3.5% to 3.7%

Observations

Our perpetually gloomy state broadcaster, the BBC, continues to depress the populace with its stories of doctors’ strikes, flooding, etc.

What it fails to mention is the state of play in the EU. Doctors are currently on strike in Germany and massive floods are affecting many regions there. The BBC doesn’t like to report on such things because it doesn’t suit their pro-EU agenda.

Doctors’ strike

We must say something about this. The BMA should be ashamed of itself. There is no question but that the current doctors’ strike will cost lives. These doctors swore an oath “to do no harm”. Quite how they can reconcile this with the deaths that will be caused by their unwillingness to work is entirely beyond us.

We all have a choice. We can work in our chosen profession or choose a different one. The country has invested huge sums in training the best doctors in the world. If they don’t appreciate this we suggest they pay back the money invested in their training and do something else.

We must get reports like this out there

Reports like the one above take far longer to research, write and produce than many people realise. If they were easy, readers would see other organisations also producing these daily. However, there’s little point in the Facts4EU.Org team working long hours, seven days-a-week, if we lack the resources to promote them effectively – to the public, to MPs, and to the media. This is where you come in, dear reader.

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[ Sources: S&P Global ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 06 Jan 2024

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Reader Comments 15

1. Sparky , Saturday, January 06, 2024, 06:51:

From HoC Library 5 Jan. UK GDP in Q3 2023 was 1.4% above its pre-pandemic level of Q4 2019. This compares with Eurozone GDP being 3.0% higher, with GDP in Germany up by 0.3%. The other G7 economies had higher growth than the UK over this period, including the US where GDP was 7.4% higher.

2. terence patrick hewett , Saturday, January 06, 2024, 07:53:

EU share of world trade: the Incredible Shrinking Willy.

3. NH , Saturday, January 06, 2024, 13:21:

1. Sparky , "UK GDP Comparisons"
I am not sure why anybody would want to compare data that started before we left the EU. The effects of the Pandemic and the Russian Invasion had nothing to do with Brexit. The HOC release clearly shows that in 2022 the UK had a much higher growth rate than France, Germany and the Eurozone (IMF and OECD Data). In 2023 the UK's GDP growth was higher than Germany, similar to the Eurozone and slightly below France. The decline in the UK's GDP growth in 2023 is not surprising as the Bank of England maintained very high Interest rates and initiated quantitative tightening in order to slow the economy down.
.
In November 2023 the EU revised it's own GDP forecast down and they stated that economic growth in many eurozone states has been driven by RRF (Recovery and Resilience Fund) spending. This is basically EU borrowing being consumed. This is not a sustainable growth policy they are just borrowing growth from the future and unfortunately they will have to finance and pay back these huge debts at some time. The PMI indicator is interesting because it's a lead indicator and usually gives a good indication of what's likely to happen.

4. LuxuryBalloon , Saturday, January 06, 2024, 14:07:

3 NH. Is The UK manufacturing PMI estimate in December 2023 was 46.2, down from 47.2 in November 2023. This is the 17th month in a row when the index has been below 50.

5. Sparky , Saturday, January 06, 2024, 15:04:

Guardian piece today with the header. Everyone cites Covid and Brexit’: number of UK businesses going bust rises 52% in two years

6. John Jones , Saturday, January 06, 2024, 15:28:

Today's post is a corker of epicaricacy ( our old favourite) and randomness.
Can anybody please highlight (albeit with hindsight) what today's post spanning a PMI index and a quote of the Hippocratic oath is really all about?

7. John Jones , Saturday, January 06, 2024, 16:32:

5. Sparky
It's the Guardian* - last bastion of the remainers & even they're faltering - what would you expect the Guardian to say? They'd say the sky was pink even if it was blue.
Don't believe everything you read in the Guardian - I'm shocked I tell you. 😂
* Never let it be said that Ukraine had anything to do with energy prices rising 70%-80% or had anything to do with food price inflation.

8. NH , Saturday, January 06, 2024, 17:18:

4. LB , "UK PMI"
This article is comparing UK PMI with Eurozone PMI. As it states composite PMI is 52.1 hence above 50. Manufacturing PMI is slightly below 50 which is believed to be due to higher borrowing costs. The BOE policies are hoping to slow the economy down to reduce inflation hence this is a deliberate policy.
.
5. Sparky , "number of UK businesses going bust rises 52% in two years"
Not all UK businesses are equal, many are incredibly small and have very little effect on the economy. The quote comes from Begbies Traynor who say it's a result of high interest rates. Begbies have been predicting a huge rise in insolvencies for several years now but their predictions have yet to come true.

9. jon iivesey , Saturday, January 06, 2024, 18:08:

1. Sparky , Sat-urday, January 06, 2024, 06:51: That's very funny, Sparky., You are comparing UK GDP with the US, which also is not a member of the EU. Did you even notice that, or were you just too focused on saying anything negative you could think of?

10. jon iivesey , Saturday, January 06, 2024, 18:26:

8. NH , "5. Sparky , "number of UK businesses going bust rises 52% in two years"" Yup, and this is a perfect example of Sparky proving that he simply cannot think. You just have to ask yourself if a Brexit vote in 2016 could cause a 50% rise in bankruptcies eight years later. Then you would probably say that there is no obvious mechanism to make that happen.
So what could make this rise happen? The answer is pretty clear, at least if you are not some obsessive dope trying to blame everything on Brexit. The answer is that interest rates declined continuously to 2008, then we entered a regime of zero interest, and on top of that the Covid period where Governments were supporting businesses with grants and subsidies. So business borrowing/financing was very cheap indeed. Historically cheap.
All kind of unsound and marginal businesses that would have failed in normal financial conditions manged to survive with cheap money. And this has been noted over and over in the Press. But then along came inflation and rising interest rates and unsound businesses that had managed to limp along began to fail.
But that isn't how Sparky works. He never says "Here is a phenomenon, so what could cause it?" Instead he says "Here is a phenomenon, how can I find some bogus way to blame it on Brexit?"

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