The fall of the mighty Deutschland - the EU’s No.1 economy by far – continues

Meanwhile Brexit Britain defies the doom-mongers and continues to grow

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

Facts4EU.Org’s report on the latest official economic figures makes dismal reading for Rejoiners

On Monday Germany’s official statistics agency released its latest figures on the German economy for last year, 2023. These show an overall fall in GDP of 0.3%, reinforcing the reports we have been producing all year on the troubles afflicting the EU’s No.1 economy.

Meanwhile in independent Brexit Britain - whose economy was supposed to “fall off a cliff” if we voted to leave the European Union according to David Cameron and George Osborne in 2016 – GDP grew again in November by 0.3%.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Change in Germany’s GDP year-on-year, price adjusted

2021 : 3.2%
2022 : 1.8%
2023 : -0.3%

[Source : Destatis, official German statistics agency, 15 Jan 2024.]

The doom and gloom in Germany

We have been unable to find any reputable economic forecasters in Germany who are predicting a turnaround in Germany’s economic fortunes in the next quarter.

The headlines in Germany’s media recently have not made for comfortable reading if you are German. Here are a couple of examples on 15 Jan 2024 from Germany’s state broadcaster Deutsche Welle, showing the angst in Germany right now.

In Brexit Britain things are not perfect, but it’s a different – and better - story

GDP : UP (By 0.3% in Nov – latest figures)
Exports : UP
Employment : UP
Inward investment : UP
Inflation : DOWN

For Chancellor Scholz, things get worse…

Germany has state elections this year, as well as elections to the EU Parliament. Chancellor Scholz has similar problems to Rishi Sunak, in that his polling has been falling for months.

Rishi Sunak has Reform UK to worry about. Reform look likely to take a significant chunk out of the Conservative vote, according to the latest very comprehensive YouGov poll published on Sunday by the Telegraph.

In Germany, Chancellor Scholz has similar concerns about the AfD. Like Reform, the AfD are not an ‘Establishment’ party, and they are even more threatening to the Chancellor’s fortunes. Current polling is putting them on around 20%, double that of Reform in the UK.

The major difference is that Germany’s PR system means that the AfD are likely to pick up a considerable number of seats in the Bundestag, to say nothing of the EU Parliament.

Observations

The key message here is a very simple one.

The UK’s economy was supposed to have been destroyed by a vote for Brexit. We were threatened with all manner of catastrophes from the loss of up to 820,000 jobs to a housing collapse to an outbreak of gonorrhoea.

The reality has been the opposite. Compared to Germany the independent United Kingdom is doing relatively well. We are not doing nearly as well as we could be doing if we had taken full advantage of Brexit. Still, the UK’s economy has definitely not “fallen off a cliff”.

To some jaded readers who think we should not be talking about this seven years after the Referendum, we would simply point out that Rejoiners are still all over social media with anti-Brexit propaganda. They almost never quote any facts (how could they?) but this doesn’t stop them.

We stop them with facts. If we don’t, who will?

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[ Sources: Destatis | DW ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 20 Jan 2024

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Reader Comments 3

1. Ashley Great Britain , Saturday, January 20, 2024, 08:13:

The Uk isn't just going to fail despite what some people predicted or wanted.
Independent businesses and individuals will always try to improve their financial situation no matter what the predictions are.
The difference now is that we are partially free from EU constraints to our progress. This is visible with the policies and planning now in force across the nation.
A 0.3% rise isn't brilliant, But its far better than a 0.3% fall.
If only the government broadened their use of our new independent freedom's so that 0.3% would change to +1% and so on.
Unfortunately the Conservatives and Labour constantly demonstrate they aren't willing or capable.
I can't wait to exercise my vote with Reform UK.

2. Captain Thunderbolt , Saturday, January 20, 2024, 10:58:

Just have to look at the way things are going in the EU now the commission can borrow money on the international markets. Macron wants more free cash
-
Macron in favour of new EU joint debt, defence bonds
-
Who going to pay it back

3. jon iivesey , Saturday, January 20, 2024, 18:19:

One way to measure the size of computing and data centres is just to count the power they use. By this measure, London is out in front as a concentration of computing power in Europe, with France and Germany a significant way behind. For comparison, London is on a par with Tokyo and Singapore, and Worldwide Beijing and New York are pretty far out in front.
Computing remains the enabling technology of the future because so many fields that previously relied on experiment and trial and error can now use computational power to design directly, so the UK has to be competing with the big boys to remain significant. Computation has been a significant UK strength since the Forties, and we have to keep it that way, including keeping any regulatory measures under UK control.
In particular, we have to remember that a significant part of the EU's mission is to prevent other European economies from competing too effectively against Germany, even if that harms European competitiveness as a whole, and so we have to be alert for so-called social and environmental regulation that is disguised German protectionism.
The day you hear that UK computational or AI products have to be regulated from Brussels because they risk exposing the activities of German oligarchs, you need to be aware of what's really going on.

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