Observations

One swallow does not a summer make, and our report does of course cover mainly one poll. Polls do not usually represent what happens in General Elections, as US President-Elect Donald Trump can testify. Nevertheless, this latest poll confirms a trend in Reform UK’s gradual advance in the British political landscape.

Whether this continues and eventually becomes the largest upset in British politics since the First World War remains to be seen. Certainly those running Reform are very bullish and when looking at the trends it is easy to see why.

Some elements of the mainstream media have of course pointed out that a good percentage share of the votes doesn't equate to a similar share of parliamentary seats, but we understand Reform are heavily engaged in building the all-important infrastructure at local level and are already looking at focusing their efforts on winnable seats. This could make an enormous difference to their fortunes at the next general election.

If Elon Musk does indeed make a major financial contribution to Reform, as has been rumoured, then this could have a very significant impact on the Party’s fortunes, over and above what we are already seeing.

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