‘Project Fear’ versus ‘Project Fact’? ‘Project Fact’ wins hands down

Brexit Britain now sells over 50% more to the EU than before the Referendum

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2023

Far from ‘falling off a cliff’, UK exports of goods and services are buoyant

Last week the Office for National Statistics released the latest official data for the UK’s trade with the EU and with the non-EU world. This includes both goods and services.

This is important because the UK is predominantly a services economy. The figures show that exports to the EU are up by more than 50% in the first half of this year, compared to the first half of 2016.

Brexit Facts4EU provides readers with the latest official trade data : June 2016 to June 2023

We often report on exports of goods because these statistics are released more frequently. What really matters, though, are exports of both goods and services.

In today’s report we contrast ‘Project Fear’ with ‘Project Fact’ – and ‘Project Fact’ beats ‘Project Fear’ hands down. Our summary of the trade figures over the past seven years demonstrates conclusively that the doom-mongers who talked of a “precipice” and a “cliff edge” could not have been more wrong.

Commenting on our report, the Rt Hon Sir John Redwood MP said :-

“Great news to see UK exports surging ahead now we are out of the EU.
As we thought growth is fastest with the rest of the world , but EU trade too has flourished. Where are the apologies from all those Remain campaigners who said our trade with Europe would decline?
Why did they produce idiotic models based on an inability to trade with more distant countries, when they now account for 58% of the total? ”
- The Rt Hon Sir John Redwood, MP for Wokingham, former Secretary of State and former Single Market Minister

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

UK’s exports of goods and services, first half of 2016 versus first half of 2023

Seasonally adjusted, in £’s billions

1. To the EU27

Jan-Jun 2016 : £118.9bn
Jan-Jun 2023 : £180.2bn (+51.5%)

[Source : Office for National Statistics, 26 Oct 2023.]

2. To the rest of the (non-EU) world

Jan-Jun 2016 : £159.6bn
Jan-Jun 2023 : £252.1bn (+58.0%)

[Source : Office for National Statistics, 26 Oct 2023.]

3. Share of the UK’s export market, first half of 2023

EU : 41.7%
Non-EU : 58.3%

[Source : Office for National Statistics, 26 Oct 2023.]

Observations

Once again we must call on ex-PM David Cameron and ex-Chancellor George Osborne – together with all the major national and international bodies who predicted a disaster for British exports if the British people were to vote Leave – to apologise unreservedly and admit they could not have been more wrong.

For nearly eight years Brexit Facts4EU.Org has been in the vanguard of ‘Project Fact’. Our reports, based on official statistics, have shown that the British people were right to ignore the doom-mongers.

Today’s report is no exception.

Brexit freedoms

The UK has barely begun to take advantage of its freedoms since exiting the EU. Indeed far from acting on these, the current Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has introduced a growth-depressing 31% hike in corporation tax, in addition to huge new taxes for the energy sector which make cheaper, home-grown energy projects in the North Sea unviable.

Ahead of his budget next month we invite Mr Hunt to wake up and smell the fresh, espresso coffee available to him in our ‘Independence Café’.

And finally, it's Sunday and tomorrow is Monday...

As regular readers know, on Sundays we like to end on a musical interlude. Today's offering is something upbeat, in keeping with our report above. We hope it puts readers in a good mood for all the challenges ahead. The video below features the late 'Mama' Cass Elliot who tragically died in a London hotel and who possessed one of the most remarkable female voices in pop history.

We must get reports like this out there

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[ Sources: Office for National Statistics ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sun 29 Oct 2023

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Reader Comments 21

1. Paul , Sunday, October 29, 2023, 07:48:

Remoaners/rejoiners can hum ode to joy as they read this, lol.

2. Ashley Great Britain , Sunday, October 29, 2023, 09:00:

How could Cameron and Osborne be so wrong.
Well they weren't wrong, They're not stupid, They just intentionally lied.

3. Sparky , Sunday, October 29, 2023, 09:10:

Amazing. The UK didn’t leave until end and of Dec 2020. This is comparing 7 years, 5 of which we were still in the EU. Look at the ONS data, it shows a dip after 2020 and pretty flat imports and exports since.
.
Interesting piece in the Times this morning, JPMorgan showing off their brand new Paris offices opened in 2021.
.
Judging by recent polls we probably won’t be hearing much from John Redwood after he loses his seat, I would put that down as a Brexit benefit.

4. Captain Thunderbolt , Sunday, October 29, 2023, 10:02:

3. Sparky , Sunday, October 29, 2023, 09:10:
.
Interesting piece in the Times this morning, JPMorgan showing off their brand new Paris offices opened in 2021.
.
What you didn't say they have had a presence in France since 1868 and the current enlargement comes with tax breaks of up to 50% and the right to exclude foreign assets from the French wealth tax for 8 years, why would they not open a new expanded office?

5. ste , Sunday, October 29, 2023, 10:27:

ONLY evil thrives with unelected unaccountable leaders

6. Sparky , Sunday, October 29, 2023, 11:05:

Looking back at this weeks Brexit Hot News it’s all about trying to persuade people that it was the right choice, still campaigning to leave or trying to fight a rear guard.
.
Brexit Documentary up to 1,600 views. Now only £46 per view.

7. NH , Sunday, October 29, 2023, 12:51:

3. Sparky, "Trade Data"
What exactly is your point ? The remain campaign said there would be economic collapse, immediately after the Brexit Vote, if we voted to leave. Before the Brexit votes our exports to the EU had stagnated for 4 years. After the Brexit vote our exports increased significantly each year (excluding 2020). Exports to non EU countries increased more than this. Do you believe that if people had know this in advance they would have voted to remain ?
.
After we left the EU they introduced a whole range of very expensive emergency plans which significantly increased the cost of EU membership. Do you believe that if people had know this in advance they would have voted to pay unlimited amounts to other countries ?
.
3. Sparky, "JP Morgan"
JP Morgan's regional headquarters for Europe, the Middle East and Africa is in London. In the UK they employ 19,000 people, 10,000 of them in London. We didn't pay them anything for this. The Paris office employs 800 people almost half of them where in Paris before they opened this office. The EU's attempts to relocate business from the UK to the Eurozone started a long time before the Brexit vote with changes to EU law. This was our punishment for refusing to join the Euro and it's been an ongoing saga ever since. Why you want to join an organisation that has continually tried to harm the UK is baffling ?

8. Paul j , Sunday, October 29, 2023, 13:19:

Sparky has lost the economic argument and is now getting desperate judging by his recent comments.

9. John Jones , Sunday, October 29, 2023, 13:31:

Interestingly the ONS is also quoted in Research/HoC library:
https://www.google.com/url?...
"The value of UK trade with the EU reached a record high in cash terms in 2022. UK exports to the EU increased by 24% in cash terms between 2021 and 2022, while the value of imports from the EU increased by 36%.... * ONS Caution is needed
when interpreting these figures. They do not adjust for inflation which was around 9% in the UK in 2022. Also the high rates of growth represent a return to more normal levels following Covid. .."
In other news from ONS/HoC library:
"The proportion of the UK’s total exports going to the EU has generally been declining gradually over the last 15-20 years - in 2006, the EU accounted for
54% of all UK exports, though by 2022, this had fallen to 42%. ..
This is good news implying less dependence on the EU as an export market - however we already know that UK will potentially lose even more access to EU financial services from Mid 2025 owing to Brussels forcing EU banks to move Euro clearing to the EU.
The news on imports is less attractive:
"..The picture on imports is slightly less clear. In 2003, 58% of UK imports were from the EU. Between 2008 and 2019, this remained above 50% until 2021, when it fell to 46%, before increasing to 48% in 2022..."
We still rely far too heavily on the EU for food imports - we really need to improve resilience with RoW for these imports including over reliance on Dover for RoRo lorries/transport.
Things will get slightly worse in 2024 when/if UK ever gets to use our right of Import inspections & customs controls at the UK border for EU goods exports - it's quite possible that France, in particular, will use even more tit for tat retaliation measures as we increase UK customs controls.

10. John Jones , Sunday, October 29, 2023, 13:38:

https://researchbriefings.f...
Please find link address for ONS /HoC research report

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