Anti-Brexit IMF releases new UK forecast and doesn’t blame Brexit once
Instead they blame Government policies and energy costs for downgrade
Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2023
Always wrong, the IMF’s forecasts are put into perspective in our report
As usual they are pessimistic about the UK – no change there
If you watch or listen to the BBC you would be forgiven for concluding on Tuesday (31 Jan 2023) that the UK is the worst-performing economy in the developed world. The BBC seemed delighted to cover the latest economic forecasts released by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) that day.
With that being the third anniversary of the UK’s supposed exit from the EU, the timing of the IMF’s report was ‘interesting’.
The IMF appears to blame the Sunak government
IMPORTANT : Nowhere does the IMF mention Brexit. It explains its downgrade in its growth forecast for the UK as being due to “tighter fiscal and monetary policies and financial conditions and still-high energy retail prices weighing on household budgets.” In other words, it blames Rishi Sunak's and Jeremy Hunt's economic policies, and energy prices.
What the IMF said about the UK
“With inflation at about 10 percent or above in several euro area countries and the United Kingdom, household budgets remain stretched.”
It’s disappointing that the IMF doesn’t seem to know its facts. Inflation in the EU is running at 10.4% whilst in Brexit Britain it is 9.2%. 9.2% is certainly not “about 10 percent or above”.
“Growth in the United Kingdom is projected to be –0.6 percent in 2023, a 0.9 percentage point downward revision from October, reflecting tighter fiscal and monetary policies and financial conditions and still-high energy retail prices weighing on household budgets.”
Source: International Monetary Fund, 31 Jan 2023
So, not one word about Brexit. Further down we show how the IMF has consistently got its forecasts wrong and has always been unduly pessimistic about the UK in particular. The IMF's final brief mention of the UK was:-
“In some advanced economies, recent data show that households are still on net adding to their stock of excess savings (as in some euro area countries and the United Kingdom) or have ample savings left (as in the United States).”
That’s it. That’s all the IMF said about the UK in its report. The downgrade in the IMF's forecast is not attributed to Brexit in any way whatsoever.
1. The IMF’s track record of inaccurate and misleading forecasts
We start with the IMF’s forecasts for UK economic growth. These have been consistently wrong. For example, in October 2020 the IMF predicted growth in the UK in 2021 would be 5.9%. This was 3 months before the start of the year in question.
Then in October 2021 when the UK was already nine months through the year, and after already having to upgrade its forecast for the UK, the IMF only upgraded its last forecast to 6.8%. In fact UK growth turned out to be 7.4%, beating all other G7 countries.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
The IMF’s unreliable economic forecasts for the UK
- Oct 2020 forecast for 2021 : 5.9%
- Oct 2021 forecast for 2021 : 6.8%
- Actual UK outcome for 2021 : 7.4%
[Sources : IMF World Economic Outlook, 2020 and 2021.]
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2023 - click to enlarge
2. Critical statements by head of IMF, an ex-EU Commissioner from Bulgaria
The IMF’s Managing Director is Кристалина Георгиева who hails from EU member state Bulgaria, where she secured a postgraduate degree from the Karl Marx Institute, as it was then called. For those readers whose Bulgarian is a little rusty, the anglicised version of her name is Kristalina Georgieva.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
The IMF’s Managing Director was a Bulgarian EU Commissioner
Bulgaria became a member of the EU in 2007. Its population is just 6.5 million and its economy is ranked No.71 in the world. Bulgaria's economy is just 2.7% of the size of the UK economy, according to the IMF itself when we last checked late last year.
Ms Georgieva was EU Commissioner for International Cooperation, Humanitarian Aid, and Crisis Response in the Juncker EU Commission.
In October 2021 Ms Georgieva was on the wrong end of a damning report prepared by the law firm WilmerHale for the World Bank's board, where she had worked before moving to the IMF. The allegations were that Ms Georgieva had put “undue pressure” on World Bank staff in their preparation of a major report, in order to boost China’s rankings. That report subsequently had to be withdrawn.
Following a subsequent IMF investigation Ms Georgieva was allowed to stay on as the IMF’s MD, after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the report raised "legitimate" concerns, but "absent further direct evidence" no action would be taken.
It was Ms Georgieva who made the critical comments about the UK’s new economic strategy under Liz Truss’s administration last year, albeit not specifically mentioning the UK by name. Everyone knew to whom she was referring, though.
Observations
Ms Georgieva has spent a large part of her working life in academia and the EU, focusing on ‘humanitarian’ and ‘environmental’ matters. In that sense she fits in perfectly with the globalist mentality which prevails in all these institutions.
When it comes to the IMF, in the years since the EU Referendum every time we have studied the IMF’s reports we have detected an anti-UK bias.
In qualitative terms when looking at the texts this is hard to quantify and our opinions are just that, albeit that we do not write things we do not believe to be true. In quantitative terms, however, the IMF’s forecasts have consistently been negative and just plain wrong, as we have demonstrated above. We cited one example of many.
It is almost as if the former EU Commissioner who now runs the IMF has it in for Brexit Britain. Surely that cannot be the case?
We must get reports like this out there
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[ Sources: IMF | EU Commission ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Thurs 02 Feb 2023
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