Brexit gets lost in turmoil of three PMs in seven weeks

Few people are mentioning this week’s second deadline – and it’s all about Brexit

Montage © Facts4EU.Org

After today’s 2pm cut-off in the Tory leadership race, there’s another fixed deadline on Friday

Today Facts4EU.Org looks at a major Brexit impact of the current leadership turmoil.

Whatever happens at 2pm today, a second deadline four days later at midnight on Friday is rushing up and current indications are that it will be missed. This will then further delay a full Brexit for the entire United Kingdom… Again.

We explain this second deadline, review the possible scenarios, and consider the consequences for Brexit of the continued turmoil at the top of Parliamentary Conservative Party.

What happens at midnight this coming Friday?

Power-sharing in Northern Ireland must resume by Friday, with a working Stormont administration, or the Government is obliged by law to dissolve the N.I. Assembly and call a new election in Northern Ireland. This will be its second in just seven months.

All of this arises out of the special arrangements in Northern Ireland for power-sharing, enshrined in UK law following the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement.

How does the Tory leadership contest affect this?

The absence of effective government at Westminster since the ‘mini-budget’ meant that important issues such as the N.I. Protocol were pushed to one side.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The election and the summary of Brexit scenarios

Scenario 1

Rishi Sunak wins today, Penny Mordaunt fails to reach 100 votes cast, and Mr Sunak will be on his way to the Palace to see King Charles III.

He will then have just four days to resolve a crisis that has been going on for six years.

Scenario 2

Rishi Sunak wins, but Penny Mordaunt receives more that the necessary 100 votes. The decision then goes to the Conservative Party membership. The member ballot is due to open tomorrow (Tues 25 Oct 2022) and close at 11am on Friday (28 Oct 2022). Due to the tight deadlines, this will be a fully online ballot.

The winner – Mr Sunak or Ms Mordaunt – will then have just 13 hours to resolve the crisis.

Scenario 3

Chris Heaton Harris, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, quickly discusses a deal with current PM Liz Truss, leadership contender Rishi Sunak, leadership contender and Leader of the House Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the Lords, the Chief Whip, and possibly the Chairman of the 1922 Committee.

This would involve rushing primary legislation through both Houses before the deadline at midnight on Friday, to extend the current arrangements so that no election in Northern Ireland has to be called.

Scenario 4

Everyone simply ignores this and the UK Government is then obliged to call an election in N.I..

Scenario 5

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) – fearing an even worse election result than they achieved earlier this year – buckles. At the last minute they agree to go back to the Assembly and resume power-sharing for the time being.

This would avoid the need for another election.

What do some of the key players say?

"It's actually a legal requirement to call it then at 12.01am on Oct 28."
- Northern Ireland Secretary, urging the DUP to return to the Assembly, 23 Oct 2022

"An election that happens because an ask that is impossible to deliver in the timeframe that we have, between now and next Friday, seems a very unreasonable basis to force an election in Northern Ireland."
- Simon Coveney, Irish Foreign Minister, speaking to RTE yesterday

Background to the current dispute and its effects on a full Brexit

The DUP walked out of the Assembly earlier this year, refusing to share power with Sinn Fein unless and until problems with the EU’s N.I. Protocol have been fixed.

These mostly relate to the way trade has been diverted as a direct result of a border being placed down the middle of the Irish Sea. This had the effect of breaching the Act of Union and of breaching the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement.

Crucially, it has effectively siphoned off part of the United Kingdom, where those citizens now have to obey the laws of a foreign power, with no say and no vote.

Observations

The EU first started weaponising Northern Ireland in late 2016, with the enthusiastic encouragement of the government of the Republic of Ireland. It is clear from all the events which have taken place since, that the EU Commission did this out of spite, to punish the UK for voting to leave its sclerotic empire.

Since then we have had to endure years of Westminster infighting, with large numbers of MPs refusing to respect the decision of the British people to leave the European Union.

Once the Remainer PM Theresa May had gone, many hoped that Brexit would finally be achieved. Sadly this was not to be. In July 2021 when Liz Truss was Foreign Secretary in Boris Johnson’s government she promised ‘imminent’ action on Northern Ireland.

Yet here we are, more than six years after the EU Referendum, still waiting.

Facts4EU.Org needs you today

We are a 'not for profit' team (we make a loss) and any payment goes towards the actual work, not plush London offices, lunch or taxi expenses, or other luxuries of some organisations.

We badly need more of our thousands of readers to become members, to support this work. Could this be you, today? Maybe you've been thinking about it, but just haven't got around to doing it? If so, let us reassure you. It's quick and easy and we use two highly secure payment providers. And we do NOT ask you for further support if you pay once - we just hope that you keep supporting us. Your membership stays anonymous unless you tell us otherwise.

Please don't assume that other people will keep us going - we don't receive enough to survive and we need your help today. Could you help us?

Most of our readers are well-informed and appreciate our fact-based articles, presented in a way you won't see anywhere else. We have far more to do in researching, publishing, campaigning and lobbying Parliament than we have in terms of the financial resources to fulfil these tasks. We badly need funding to continue - we rely 100% on public contributions from readers like you.

If you believe in a fully-free, independent, and sovereign United Kingdom, please join now. It’s quick, secure, and confidential, and you can use one of the links below or you can use our Support page here. You will receive a personal, friendly ‘thank you’ from a member of our team within 24 hours. Thank you for reading this.

[ Sources: DUP | N.I. Office | RTE | Conservative Party website ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Mon 24 Oct 2022

Click here to go to our news headlines

Please scroll down to COMMENT on the above article.
And don't forget to actually post your message after you have previewed it!

Something to say about this? Scroll down for reader comments

Since before the EU Referendum, Brexit Facts4EU.Org
has been the most prolific researcher and publisher of Brexit facts in the world.

Supported by MPs, MEPs, & other groups, our work has impact.

We think facts matter. Please donate today, so that we can continue to ensure a clean Brexit is finally delivered.

Any credit card user

Quick One-off

From £5 - £1,000

Monthly

From £3 per month

Paypal Users Only - Choose amount first

Quick One-off

Monthly

PLEASE NOTE IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO COMMENT : You can write your comment under any existing comments below. After you have clicked to preview your comment, you MUST then click on the CAPTCHA system and send you comment, for it to be published. Thank you!

Reader Comments 16

11. Buster , Monday, October 24, 2022, 21:25:

The Northern Ireland Protocol is Brexit. This is the deal Brexitists asked for - having rejected a more sensible (but still silly) suggestion from Theresa May. Boris Johnson told Brexitists it was a great deal. An oven ready deal. And they were dim enough to believe him and they voted for it at the general election in 2019.
Brexitists in Parliament, led by Iain Duncan Smith, campaigned and voted for MPs not to be allowed to scrutinise the NI Protocol. They knew what was in it he said.
Then almost every Tory MP and half a dozen Labour Brexit loons then voted for the NI Protocol in Parliament. Farage and his clowns voted for it in Strasbourg.
Plenty of us told you the NI Protocol was crap. We were shouted down and branded traitors or Remoaners for pointing out your deal was, well, similar to what comes out of a dog’s bum. We know you were mostly too thick to understand it. We know you voted leave because you don’t like brown people. And now you have one as PM. And you have a border down the middle of your own country. Lol.

12. Mike S , Tuesday, October 25, 2022, 06:23:

8 Bramnisia:- Opinion polls mean squat! It's too easy to get the desired results by quite simply polling more of the 'right' people. For example, you can ask, say, 100 people do you prefer option 'A' or opinion 'B'. You're choice is, say, option 'A' so, all you need to do is knowingly ask 60 like minded people over 40 people who prefer option 'B'. You do that, & you'll get the desired results everytime. Polls mean nothing.

13. Sparky , Tuesday, October 25, 2022, 07:19:

The Brexit effect: how leaving the EU hit the UK | FT Film - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/wat...

14. Ashley Great Britain , Tuesday, October 25, 2022, 07:24:

11 Buster.
Everyone knew the deal was crap but it was the best thing we could get at the time.
It was crap because of people like you in parliament and all institutions.
The mentalist EU lovers tried their hardest to stop brexit, And the result was a crap half assed deal being ratified .
If it wasn't signed leaving the EU wouldn't have happened. (shouts of glee from you)
It was clearly always expected that we would try and make the withdrawal agreement better over time.
Of course that always depends on who's pulling the strings regardless of what the majority voted for.

15. Ashley Great Britain , Tuesday, October 25, 2022, 07:41:

13 sparky.
The Financial Times!!
Anyone can make a damming biased report to fit their agenda.
It's institutions like the FT that we're very happy with EU membership because of what the could gain.

16. Sparky , Tuesday, October 25, 2022, 18:21:

The WA is crap because the leave campaign was very clever not to define what brexit was, apart from slogans and unrealistic promises. Remain voters are not happy, leave voters made up their own version of what brexit was going to be so are not happy either.

16 comments, page 2 of 2

Add comment:

Please note: Your email address is never published unless you choose to enter it.