Whichever way you look at it, the latest population and immigration data is astonishing

Will the UK soon be completely unrecognisable to our parents?

Montage © Facts4EU.Org

A Facts4EU.Org analysis and summary of the latest census information

There are so many shocking headlines contained within the latest census information released yesterday by the Office for National Statistics it’s almost impossible to know where to start.

Our report today is neither racist nor xenophobic. It simply describes what England and Wales looked like in 2021 according to the official figures and highlights the changes since the last census 10 years earlier. We only make some comments in our ‘Observations’ below the report.

Our caveats

Caveat 1 – Facts4EU.Org’s usual caveat on population and immigration figures applies: based on experience we don’t believe them. We believe they are significantly understated – see our fuller explanation in our ‘Observations’ below the facts.

Caveat 2 – These figures only relate to England and Wales and exclude Scotland and Northern Ireland. They were collected early last year and do not include changes in the last 18 months.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Population and immigration rises in England and Wales, 10 years to 2021

All information comes from the Office for National Statistics, 03 Nov 2022

1. General information

10 million usual residents of England and Wales (one in six) were born outside the UK
This is an increase of 2.5 million since 2011, and represents 16.8% of the population

Of the 10 million residents in England and Wales in 2021 who were not born in the UK, 4.2 million (42.4%) had arrived since 2011
680,000 non-UK born usual residents (6.8%) arrived between 2020 and Census Day, 21 March 2021
India remained the most common country of birth outside the UK in 2021 with 920,000 people
The population grew mostly because of immigration (57.5% of the increase), not because of the increase in births
545,000 usual residents had an address outside the UK one year before the census

2. The EU element

EU citizens made up 3.6 million (36.4% of all non-UK born usual residents) of the population
This is up from 2.5 million in 2011 and up from 1.2 million in 2001

Note: The ONS yesterday put the 2001 census figure for EU citizens at 1.4 million but we accessed the original, archived tables, which show 1,154,056. We believe the ONS are including nationals of countries which subsequently joined the EU, which paints the wrong picture.

5.9 million usual residents (9.9%) held a non-UK passport
The most common non-UK passport held was Polish (760,000)
The number of people who were born in the EU country of Romania grew by 576% since the previous census, from 80,000 in 2011 to 539,000 in 2021

3. London and the regions

London has remained the region with the largest proportion of people born outside the UK
In 2021, more than 4 in 10 (40.6%) usual residents in London were non-UK born
18 out of the top 20 Local Authorities with the highest proportion of non-UK born residents were in London
The areas with the highest proportions were Brent (56.1%), Westminster (55.6%) and Kensington and Chelsea (53.9%)
In contrast, both Wales (6.9%) and the North East of England (6.8%) had approximately 1 in 14 usual residents born outside the UK

4. The age profile

3.0 million non-UK born usual residents were under 18 when they arrived in the UK (30.2% of non-UK total)
4.3 million were aged 18 to 29 years, 2.1 million were 30 to 44 years
546,000 were 45 to 64 years, and 79,000 were aged 65 years and over when they arrived

5. Lastly, overall growth in net immigration since Tony Blair became PM

Finally, we show below the growth in net immigration since 1997, when Tony Blair became Prime Minister. It also covers the period of Prime Ministers Cameron, May, and Johnson, all of whom pledged to control immigration. Mr Cameron in particular pledged to reduce it "to the tens of thousands".

Observations

Readers will appreciate that each 10 year census contains an immense amount of information to analyse. Above, the Facts4EU.Org team has selected a range of key points of interest, based around the ONS’ own summary. For example, it wasn’t us who singled out the enormous rise in the number of Romanians – it was the ONS itself.

Section 3 of our report (“London and the regions”) perhaps goes some way to explaining why decision-makers in Government should get out more. There are now London boroughs where to have been born in Britain puts you in a minority. Naturally this will tend to skew the views and priorities of our Metropolitan ‘elites’.

Why all these figures should be treated with caution

The Office for National Statistics makes every attempt to present information as accurately as possible. That said, our experience shows there are frequently gross anomalies.

A good example of this is the number of EU citizens resident in the country. Several years ago we highlighted the fact that HMRC had issued far more National Insurance numbers to EU nationals than the number alleged to be in the country. At a time when the Government and the EU were talking about only 3 or 3.6 million, we conservatively predicted the number would more likely be between 4-5 million, based on the HMRC data. In the end even we were understating things. The true number turned out to be over 6 million, according to Home Office data from the EU Settlement Scheme.

Despite this, the ONS’ census data for England and Wales shows only 3.6 million EU nationals present. The shortfall isn’t remotely explained by the number of EU nationals living in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

One thing is clear. The impact of immigration on the populations of England and Wales cannot be ignored by our politicians any longer.

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[ Sources: Office for National Statistics, census 2021 | Final chart - numbers checked with Migration Observatory, Oxford University, to whom our thanks ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Fri 04 Nov 2022

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Reader Comments 18

1. Old Albion , Friday, November 04, 2022, 07:38:

I'm glad I'm in my twilight years. I remember England when it was English. Soon it will become a multi-identity nonentity riven by internal strife. If it isn't already.
Just sad my sons and grandchild will be saddled with it.

2. (BBBG) Broken Brexit Bruges Group , Friday, November 04, 2022, 08:33:

Half a million new citizens over 10 years (ie 1,000 per week) is an insignificant population increase. Way less than a 1 per cent increase. And literally hundreds of thousands leave the UK permanently, every 3 months. Completely made up problem - (BBBG) Broken Brexit Bruges Group

3. Buster , Friday, November 04, 2022, 09:40:

I love how multicultural my country is and the rich tapestry of people here. I grew up in the 1970s near Southall in London. We had a couple of Indian and Pakistani kids in my school and a few black kids as well. My late dad - who would have voted for Brexit - was more than a bit of a racist. He used a four letter word starting with P to describe anyone who wasn’t white. Sadly I see my dad’s attitude in most elderly Brexit voters I meet.
The EU is a union of countries made up mostly of white people. And they voted to leave it because they don’t like the number of non-white people here. Anyway, the good news is that very few younger people care. My friends come from all over the world. A white American, a black American, a second generation Indian family, a Swede, a French family, a few Kiwis, some Aussies, some South Africans and many more. My kids have even more multicultural friendship groups.
So when you all say you feel sorry for your kids and grandkids - we actually feel sorry for you for. Think of all the wonderful friendships you missed out on because you couldn’t get over where someone was born or what colour their skin is.

4. Ashley Great Britain , Friday, November 04, 2022, 09:50:

2.Buster.
(Broken unhinged shit stirrer)
Immigration from all parts of the world has been far to high for decades.
The Uk can't cope with such an influx.
New entrants should number in the couple of thousands a year, And they should be skilled people with a job.
Allowing hundreds of thousands, many of which barely work is insanity.
Add that to the millions of able bodied people on benefits who choose not to work and there is little hope.

5. Buster , Friday, November 04, 2022, 10:12:

We can cope fine - or we could with a competent government. Those of you who hate our country are welcome to leave. You won’t be missed.

6. Ashley Great Britain , Friday, November 04, 2022, 10:43:

5. Fully agree with the last part of your statement.

7. KB , Friday, November 04, 2022, 11:18:

The official view is that the 6 million EU citizens granted settled status is no measure of the number of them who are actually resident in the UK. It's the same story with the number of national insurance numbers issued. Just because they have a NI number does not mean they are normally resident here.
I would like some analysis of this situation. On the face of it, it seems bizarre that someone would apply for settled status when they have no intention of living here. But perhaps there are reasons?

8. Andy Prosser , Friday, November 04, 2022, 11:34:

It's unrecognisable now.
Look at any city.

9. Buster , Friday, November 04, 2022, 11:55:

It isn’t bizarre applying for settled status if you qualify but don’t live here. If you have settled status you effectively retain free movement not only across the EU but across the UK. This puts you at an advantage when it comes to jobs and careers and makes you more employable. It is why so many Brits have applied for Irish passports - they retain this right too.
For the rest of us we have to make do with the second class citizen status Brexitsts have imposed on us.
PS: I guess it’s all those white people from Europe wandering around our cities that make them unrecognisable to you all?

10. jon livesey , Friday, November 04, 2022, 15:07:

While Buster does his Greta act on immigration, Starmer admits that there is little difference between Labour and Conservative policy. This is how Labour operates. A lot of self-righteous Busters screeching,to get headlines but when it comes to voting they take note of what loses votes.

18 comments, page 1 of 2

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