The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first half of 2022

Latest GDP figures for Brexit Britain confound the experts – yet again

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2022

Supposed big fall in economic output predicted by the ‘experts’ fails to materialise

As usual the BBC and others yesterday presented a negative assessment of the UK economy, following the latest GDP figures from the Office for National Statistics. This is despite the fact that the economy once again performed much better than the ‘experts’ had predicted.

Whilst the headwinds are certainly worrying, Facts4EU.Org sees no need to talk the economy down. The US has been in a technical recession for the last six months, but the BBC does not seem to want to talk about that. The UK economy might have contracted in June, but it has grown overall in the last six months.

As a counter to the negative news which readers will have been receiving from the BBC, Sky News, and ITN, we present some interesting information.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Latest GDP data from the Office for National Statistics, 12 Aug 2022

“Monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.9% above its pre-COVID-19 levels (Feb 2020)”
In the EU, GDP is still below pre-pandemic levels
UK GDP grew by 0.7% in the first half of 2022
UK GDP is 2.9% higher than Quarter 2 2021
There was a small fall of 0.1% in Q2 GDP, compared to Q1

“A decline in human health activities was the largest contributor as test and trace activity reduced further and vaccinations continued to tail off, following the spring booster campaign,” says the ONS.

[Source: Office for National Statistics, GDP estimates, 12 Aug 2022.]

Gross domestic product at market prices

2019 Q2 : £561.5 bn
2019 Q3 : £568.4 bn
2019 Q4 : £568.1 bn
2020 Q1 : £561.4 bn
2020 Q2 : £488.1 bn
2020 Q3 : £545.9 bn
2020 Q4 : £555.1 bn
2021 Q1 : £555.6 bn
2021 Q2 : £575.4 bn
2021 Q3 : £584.4 bn
2021 Q4 : £601.7 bn
2022 Q1 : £621.1 bn
2022 Q2 : £627.6 bn

How did the BBC choose to cover this?

Yes, the ONS says the economy fell by just 0.1% in Q2 in real terms. However the readers of the BBC website story have to scroll down quite a way until they find this:-

“However, that figure was much better than the 1.3% fall predicted by economists.”
- Office for National Statistics, 12 Aug 2022

So, the Brexit Britain economy performed far better than the ‘experts’ predicted.

Without the extra Bank Holiday in June for the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee it is clear that the Q2 results would have been in positive territory. Even the ONS recognised this:

“It is important to note that the Platinum Jubilee, and the move of the May bank holiday, led to an additional working day in May 2022 and two fewer working days in June 2022.”

They go on to say:

“Monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.9% above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels (February 2020).”
- Office for National Statistics, 12 Aug 2022

Observations

There is no doubt that the UK’s economy, just like many EU27 economies such as Germany’s, is facing difficult times.

With the Bank of England’s Governor this week telling the British public to expect a prolonged recession, it is hardly surprising if people start to cut back on non-essential expenditure. This in turn makes the prediction of a recession a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The Facts4EU.Org team’s view is that we all have enough to worry about with the rise in energy prices - caused mainly by Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine – and we certainly do not need the Governor of the Bank of England talking the UK’s economy down.

All we have had from the ‘experts’ since before the EU Referendum are prognostications of doom and gloom. More than six years of this and none of it has come true.

Now we genuinely face difficult times caused by global energy price pressures, the race to Net Zero, and the overreaction to the Covid pandemic. None of this is remotely connected with Brexit.

And in the first half of 2022 the UK economy grew overall. There may be trouble ahead but let’s not get too depressed, too soon.

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[ Sources: Office for National Statistics ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 13 Aug 2022

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Reader Comments 4

1. LuxuryBalloon , Saturday, August 13, 2022, 07:27:

Boris’ Brexit deal is working.

2. One eyed king , Saturday, August 13, 2022, 09:17:

Boris and his deal are dog eggs. Soon to be undone, not by seditious remoaners but through necessary adjustments. The few in America cannot control the many, it is coming and everything they touch hastening their demise.
Stand in the light and I will see you there

3. Michael Burnhill , Saturday, August 13, 2022, 11:41:

So not in recession unlike EU and the best efforts of government to destroy the economy. I've said before everyone I talk to in the real economy are run off their feet with work!

4. jon livesey , Saturday, August 13, 2022, 16:46:

I guess I don't know why anyone is very surprised by this. The entire premise of Brexit was that trade and political union are two very different things. Trade is done between companies, not countries - unless countries decide to sabotage trade - and once you have a Free Trade Agreement in place, trade then comes down to the right price, the right quality and the right delivery date and has nothing to do at all with membership of someone's "ever closer" union. A Free Trade Agreement makes EU membership irrelevant.
After five years of uproar, we are finally back to a stable state where we trade with the EU the way we trade with anyone else. But of course that means that as an exporting country, our exports and our prosperity depend on the prosperity of our customers. That is why we have to keep pushing for trade with the faster-growing parts of the World and avoid obsessing over Europe out of nostalgia.
All through the Brexit saga there has been a background truth that the share of our trade that is with the EU is declining over time simply because the EU grows so slowly compared to the rest of the World. That trend is going to continue, and it has pretty much nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with comparative growth rates between the EU and the rest of the World..

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