HGV driver shortage is not ‘because of Brexit’, it’s a problem across the EU too

The truth about truckers - Facts4EU.Org reveals the reality behind driver shortages

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We publish Government and global industry facts, demolishing yet another Remainer myth

In recent weeks some elements of the media and social media in the United Kingdom have seized on the shortage of HGV drivers as being proof of another kind of ‘Brexit apocalypse’. In this report we present the facts which Facts4EU.Org has obtained from the Government and from major transport organisations.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Government and industry association information about driver shortages

Large Goods Vehicle tests dropped by nearly 43,000 since Mar 2020, when COVID struck
CPC tests (needed by professional truck drivers) dropped by 98% (Q1 2020 compared to Q1 2021)
Only 48 CPC tests were conducted in the first three months of this year
Government is recruiting 27 new examiners to speed up the process

The global situation is not any better - there are driver shortages almost everywhere

Truck driver shortages globally expected to increase by 25%+ this year, says International Road Transport Union
Germany was already reporting 45,000 vacancies back in 2018, says British International Freight Association
No.1 reason for driver shortage was ‘drivers retiring’, according to (UK) Road Haulage Association survey in July

COVID, strikes, and the lack of HGV tests

As ever Facts4EU.Org started by looking at the raw data available from official Government sources and we begin with this. We reviewed the detailed data from the Dept of Transport’s ‘Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency’ (DVSA), who are responsible for certificating drivers of what used to be called HGVs.

Specifically we analysed the number of LGV tests (‘Large Goods Vehicle’ is the new definition for HGV and buses) and, critically, at the number of CPC tests. Certificate of Professional Competence (CPC) test passes are required in addition to Large Good Vehicle (LGV) tests in order to drive professionally, i.e. as the main purpose of one's job.

In the first three months of this year (Jan-Mar 2021) a grand total of 48 CPC tests had been conducted by the DVSA. 43 drivers passed, making an average of just 14 new drivers per month – and some of these will have been bus and coach drivers.

One of the factors involved in the plans to increase HGV tests is the ongoing industrial action being taken by members of the Public and Commercial Services Union at DVLA, who are unhappy at Covid-safety measures. To quote the PCS: "Our action to date has had a huge impact on the backlogs at the DVLA". This looks set to continue and is of course unhelpful at a time when all applications should be processed as quickly as possible. Instead the DVLA's website asks people not to chase them, despite the delays.

Meanwhile, two weeks ago the Government announced the recruitment of 40 extra examiners to address driver shortages. Facts4EU.Org looked at the recruitment documents and in reality only 27 new roles are being advertised - one-third of the 40 are not additions to DVSA staff, merely existing employees transferring from other duties.

Roads Minister Baroness Vere said:
"Our HGV drivers provide a vital service delivering food, medicine and other vital goods to where they’re needed. That’s why we’re committed to working with industry to address the shortage of drivers and have unveiled a package of robust measures."

The problem of driver shortages is not a UK phenomemenon - it's global

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Truckin' all over the World

1. The IRU - Truck driver shortages in 2021 expected to increase by over 25% worldwide

The International Road Transport Union (IRU) is the voice of more than 3.5 million companies operating mobility and logistics services in over 100 countries. Here is the IRU in June this year, following a member survey:-

“Truck driver shortages are expected to increase in 2021 by over a quarter on 2020 levels in almost all of the 23 countries surveyed in IRU’s recent global survey of road transport firms.
“Gaps are set to increase at a much higher rate in some countries, including by 150% in Spain, 175% in Mexico and 192% in Turkey… Almost 40% of road transport operators surveyed cite skills gaps as the number one cause of driver shortages, in markets as diverse as the Czech Republic, Norway and Romania to Russia, Ukraine and Mexico.”
“As we look beyond the pandemic, many operators will find it impossible to find drivers to meet future customer demand.”

2. British International Freight Association (BIFA) – European shortage of drivers reported in 2018

With some 1500 members, BIFA represents organisations engaged in the movement of freight to/from the UK by all modes of transport: air, road, sea and rail. Some members are also provide customs clearance and other cross border services.

Back in 2018 (before Brexit took place), BIFA cited the European Road Freight Transport report 2018, showing that in just six countries – the UK, Germany, France, Denmark, Sweden and Norway – the shortage of drivers added up to 127,500.

“The UK led the way with a shortage of 52,000 drivers, but was closely followed by Germany at 45,000 vacancies – with predictions that this could increase by a staggering 28,000 each year.
“France had a shortage of 20,000 drivers, while road freight associations in Sweden, Denmark and Norway reported shortages of 5,000, 2,500 and 3,000, respectively.”

And this was all in 2018, well ahead of Brexit. Since then, further industry intelligence reports have shown the driver shortages in the major EU countries to have risen dramatically. Some of the latest studies show shortages of over 400,000 drivers in the EU27.

3. The (UK) Road Haulage Association

In July this year (2021) the RHA conducted a survey about driver shortages. The No.1 reason given by the respondents was ‘drivers retiring’ (58.54%). The RHA also made it clear that there has been a problem in the industry for years.

“Prior to the pandemic, [and therefore – Ed.] we estimated a shortage in excess of 60,000. At that time UK road transport businesses employed approximately 600,000 HGV drivers, including 60,000 from EU member states”

As part of the survey the RHA also asked about the current impact of driver shortages : “On an average day last week, what proportion of your fleet was idle because there was no driver available?”

Almost two-thirds (65%) stated the proportion of their fleet that was idle due to driver shortages was below 10%. Whilst there are undoubtedly driver shortages, if this survey is right then the problem needs to be seen in proportion.

The RHA also highlighted the problems caused by HMRC’s new tax treatment of self-employed drivers, under what are called ‘IR35’ rules. This has caused drivers to leave the industry.

“The large hauliers say that IR35 is the main reason for the current driver shortage crisis.”
- RHA Report on the Driver Shortage, 21 Jul 2021

Observations

So, not all about Brexit then...

Once again, a sober look at the facts shows that the Remainer hysteria about Brexit causing a collapse in the availability of drivers in the United Kingdom is wildly exaggerated.

Firstly, according to the Road Haulage Association (RHA) only 60,000 out of 600,000 HGV drivers came from the EU. Secondly, many of these returned home because of COVID, not Brexit. As the RHA said in July this year: “Many drivers returned to their country of origin during extended periods of lockdown and restricted travel. The vast majority have not yet returned.”

Even more importantly, there are numerous reasons for the shortage of HGV drivers, not the least of which being the lack of new drivers being trained and the unattractiveness of the profession to young people because of historically low wages and the conditions under which they are forced to operate these days.

Thanks to COVID-19, there is a huge backlog of HGV drivers waiting to take their courses and tests. With a drop of almost 43,000 new drivers taking their test since Covid struck, it is hardly surprising that the industry is feeling the pinch.

Finally, as our research demonstrates, there is a shortage of HGV drivers worldwide, including in EU countries such as Germany and France. This problem is not confined to the United Kingdom.

What can be done about this?

It seems clear that the Government needs to act. For the number of HGV tests to drop so dramatically, and for the number of CPC competence certificates (allowing HGV drivers to work) to drop by 98% in one year is a scandal.

One of the other major factors is already being addressed by market forces. Wages now appear to be rising across the industry, in response to the shortage of drivers. This in turn will lead to more young drivers wishing to take the place of those who are retiring – but only if the Government sorts out the driver testing system.

In the short term we suggest that the Treasury and HMRC be leant on to provide transitional relief in respect of the new IR35 regulations. This could be done as an exceptional case for drivers and it should offer a pause rather than a deferred payment scheme.

All countries need to keep goods moving. Most countries are suffering from the same problem as the UK. We welcome the increase in wages for drivers but the Government must do their bit by getting HGV testing centres going again and by some form of transitional relief on tax.

Finally, it is good to see that more haulage companies are once again investing in training the British drivers of the future.

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Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Thur 02 Sep 2021

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Reader Comments 24

1. James Richard Hobson , Thursday, September 02, 2021, 06:59:

A lot of HGV drivers driven to worl Ltd as more companies employed them through agencies and the new government tax which crippled them and thousands of construction workers too not being able to claim expenses and lodgings etc. Also the emoluments of cheap foreign workers pulling down wages has all contributed to the shortfalls. Employers are now having to employ staff on PAYE but so employing 3 week wonder inexperienced workers to keep wages down. Long term tradesmen are seeking other employment as wages for experienced men are a joke. I myself in 90's was paying as much tax a week as wages paid today in construction.

2. Dr House , Thursday, September 02, 2021, 08:54:

Just wait until scare-mongerers declare that Covid too is a consequence of Brexit. I suppose if we couldn't have super-gonorrhea, we just have to make do with Covid for now.

3. brexit sceptic , Thursday, September 02, 2021, 10:02:

That's right brexiteers keep telling yourselves this, keep digging desperately for whatever distorted statistics support your nonsensical position.
Why in Northern Ireland are there nothing like the shortages we are seeing here in the mainland then? Being in the single market and with the new Atlantic convoy shipping routes between France and Ireland - it appears they are having no trouble at all getting the goods in.

4. ste , Thursday, September 02, 2021, 10:14:

dear Brexit skeptic , please keep TOTALLY MISSING the point of Brexit !!, why can you not accept that Brexit was about DEMOCRACY ?? can you perhaps tell us what countries that are run by unelected unaccountable leaders are better places for their citizens?, why cant you see that democracy matters more than anything ? ( except family of course otherwise china etc would be stuffed ) Just keep goose stepping?, i bet in 1930's Germany you would be praising the rise of the Nazi's if you were an enamel badge maker?

5. JRM , Thursday, September 02, 2021, 10:40:

“Many drivers returned to their country of origin during extended periods of lockdown and restricted travel. The vast majority have not yet returned.” This is because they can't under BREXIT rules!!!

6. Big Hat Harry , Thursday, September 02, 2021, 10:43:

I live in Spain. We've had covid, just like the UK. All our supermarkets' shelves are full, we have no supply chain problems in either the cities or villages. Talking to friends in Portugal, Germany, Poland, France, they have no problems either. So why does the UK?

7. Dee Tointon , Thursday, September 02, 2021, 10:49:

Doesn’t appear to be a problem here in France.
Those drivers who returned home during the start of the pandemic, majority will not return as they’ve missed the settled status deadline . The ones we know have said they’ll never return to the hostile environment of the UK

8. Catherine, Dollar , Thursday, September 02, 2021, 10:49:

@Brexit sceptic - perhaps you could kindly back up your claim with hard statistics? meanwhile, perhaps you could also consider this from the Irish Road Haulage Association: "The IRHA has written to Hildegarde Naughton, Minister of State at the department, to warn of the acute shortage of heavy goods vehicle drivers and ask for the shortage to be “addressed as a matter of urgency”." (July 2021)

9. Ian , Thursday, September 02, 2021, 10:58:

Hmm, well the UK national statistics office reports that since the UK left the EU there are now 19,000 fewer EU nationals who hold HGV licenses resident in the UK.
The RHA reckon there was a preexisting shortage of around 60k, there is about a 20k new entrants backlog due to Covid, and we lost 20k EU drivers.
So at least 20% of the shortage is due to Brexit.

10. Ian , Thursday, September 02, 2021, 11:04:

@Catherine Dollar A lot of Irish drivers go over to work in the UK so when you have a shortage and pay more it impacts us here, especially since Irish drivers are now the only EU drivers who can drive in the UK due to the CTA we don't need work permit/visa.

24 comments, page 1 of 3

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