OFFICIAL : COVID-19 lockdowns cause EU27 economies to fall off a cliff

“The sharpest declines since records began,” says EU

GDP down by 3.8% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU – and this is just the beginning

Yesterday in Brussels the EU Commission’s official statistics agency released the preliminary flash estimate of GDP across the EU27 in the first quarter of this year.

Below we show the dramatic impact so far of the COVID-19 lockdowns across the EU on the economy. With the majority of Q1 of the year not even being affected by lockdowns, it is clear that Q2 2020 is going to be a great deal worse.

The results show that an economic tsunami is coming towards us at speed

From January to March this year, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 3.8% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU27 as a whole. These figures exclude the UK which left the EU in technical terms at the end of January. The UK’s Office for National Statistics will not be reporting its provisional GDP figures for Q1 until 13 May.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

EU27 Q1 2020 preliminary GDP results

GDP in the EU27 contracted by -3.5%
GDP in the Euro Zone contracted by -3.8%
These figures are the highest quarterly falls since these records began in 1995
The annualised fall in GDP for the EU27 is -13.2%

Huge impact on Q1 results, yet lockdowns only started affecting things at the end of the Quarter

It is important to recognise that the above are figures covering the whole of Q1 2020: from 01 January until 31 March. For the first two months of the quarter, there were no lockdowns anywhere in the EU, with the sole exception of a local lockdown in northern Italy.

It was only in mid-March - in the last two weeks of a 13 week quarter - that lockdowns were introduced in most EU countries, as well as in the UK. Despite this, the economy of the EU27 for the entire quarter has already been hit by a fall sharper than any seen since the EU started keeping these records.

“These were the sharpest declines observed since the time series started in 1995.”

- EU Commission Statistics Agency, 30 Apr 2020

Observations

In effect, the catastrophic falls in the EU27’s Q1 GDP took place in the last few weeks of the quarter – in March.

Readers might like to imagine just how much worse the numbers are going to be for the current quarter, when so much more of the period will be subject to the Coronavirus lockdowns. This is not going to be pretty.

In the approaching maelstrom, the EU really will need the UK's massive market for its goods, as well as the UK's dominant financial services sector in the City of London.

Do people know what's coming?

We believe that ordinary people have not been fully warned of what is coming by either the Government or the broadcast media. This is as true in the EU27 as it is in the United Kingdom.

Economies are tumbling over the cliff and a financial tsunami of epic proportions is heading for the coast at increasing speed and strength. The impact is going to be massive.

Sooner or later people will become aware of the increase in deaths wholly unrelated to COVID-19. If this coincides with catastrophic news for our economy and for the livelihoods of millions, then the ‘experts’ had better be ready with a plan to deal with the outrage.

The alternative would be to act now, which is what we would do.

As ever, may we appeal to you to support free speech and a reliable source of hard facts, distilled into punchy and widely-read articles? You don't have to like every word we write, but we hope you appreciate the serious research we carry out.

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[ Sources: EU Commission Statistics Agency | Oxford University COVID-19 Government Response Tracker ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Fri 01 May 2020

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Reader Comments 11

1. Mike, London , Friday, May 01, 2020, 06:57:

Luckily the EU headquarters has enormous reserves to work with.
First they can get rid of everyone in the EU machinery whose usefulness is questionable, to save on their salaries and grants.
Then pause all salaries and expenses going to all remaining EU bureaucrats. It’s only reasonable as obviously currently they don’t need 1st class travel- hotel- restaurant- clothing- etc costs and in any case their massive wealth will see them through until this is all over.

2. Sarah / ex-pat Englishwoman in Edinburgh , Friday, May 01, 2020, 07:25:

Once again I'm amazed I didn't read this anywhere else. I really hope you guys can keep going because we need you. I don't have much but I just sent you a little something. We need you to keep doing what you do. Thanks.

3. Joe , Friday, May 01, 2020, 07:29:

It's now seriously arguable that the lockdown and the way/extent it’s executed was really such a great idea. ‘Scientists’ and governments are stuck both with the decision (which they’re desperately trying to justify still) and the way out of it. Meanwhile looking at the overall short and long-term consequences on every aspect of people’s lives and health, the detriments of the lockdown more and more outweighing the benefits. Time to wake up and go to work!

4. Orn J , Friday, May 01, 2020, 08:36:

I don’t see the point of continuing trade talks with the EU - I can’t see the EU existing much longer.

5. Kevin G , Friday, May 01, 2020, 09:52:

WTO NOW...Save 7 Months and the best part of £39 Billion ( less legal commitments) ....SIMPLES.

6. Not4EU, London , Friday, May 01, 2020, 11:55:

This is just the start of it. There is then the inevitable knock on effect on EU revenue for its budget, mainly based on the GNI, VAT & Customs/Tariff takes from its members (the balance being fines, interest and 'contributions from third countries'), which will all be significantly smaller due to the perverse political actions taken of locking up healthy people and closing down everything bar food, health and (of course) the public sector.
The EU will have to either cut its budget (remember, they still voted to increase it despite knowing that its second largest contributor was leaving) which seems unlikely to be done in any meaningful way, or increase the call rate, the % demanded of a country's GNI, supplemented by increased VAT/tariff rates. All measures will hit the members hard, given they will be reeling from the results of their own political decisions in their own countries. Perhaps its members' people will start to see the EU for what it really is.
Of course, it is also a perfect cover to 'explain' the long expected collapse of the Euro & ECB. 'It was the virus. Nothing to do with incompetent management & the ponzi scheme', as the real cause of failure is buried & hidden. 'Nothing to see here'.
It all makes it more imperative that we have properly withdrawn, incl from liabilities of the ECB, from the cluster**ck that is the EU asap. We will have enough problems of our own. Yet we have still passed 445 pieces of legislation originating from the EU THIS year(248 regulations, 183 'decisions' and 14 directives).
https://www.legislation.gov...
The EU is now beyond saving & help. It can't come a moment too soon for me. I just wanted to leave the political construct of the semi-formed 'country' of the EU. If other countries' people wanted to participate then that was up to them. The unelected EU 5th columnists in positions of power in this country have demonstrated that we will only really gain our freedom if the EU is destroyed.

7. Guy R , Friday, May 01, 2020, 12:19:

Current forecasts for the uk for the whole of 2020 predict negative 2.6% GDP I haven’t seen any UK Jan to March so we have no comparison with the EU numbers.

8. andy from warwickshire , Friday, May 01, 2020, 13:18:

The UK scientists remain clueless, with or without there secret models and colourful charts, leading a Government acting like a rabbit caught in the headlights.

9. Worried about this western world , Saturday, May 02, 2020, 05:11:

I still have a feeling that this was all part of a plan. There was no lockdown during the second world war.
Everything about the last 5 months stinks of I don't know what, I just have a gut feeling that we are being tested and not by the virus. That is not to belittle the horrible effect on people especially for the ones hospitalised or who die.
First we had Great and the eco loons, now the virus to worry about - what's next?

10. Concerned , Saturday, May 02, 2020, 05:14:

6. Not4EU, I could not agree more with you! Especially with this "we will only really gain our freedom if the EU is destroyed" - cannot come soon enough.

11 comments, page 1 of 2

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