The latest “Great Brexit Britain” trade news

In 2019 UK exports to non-EU world grew NINE TIMES faster than to EU27

The UK had a massive trade SURPLUS with the world, but a massive trade DEFICIT with the EU

Brexit Britain’s future is bright and it’s out there in the World, not in the EU. Brexit Facts4EU.Org has analysed the latest trade figures published by the Department for International Trade, which came out on Friday (19 June 2020).

Below we present the starkest, simplest, and most revealing summary of the UK’s trade position you are likely to read this year.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The UK’s non-EU exports of goods and services are £100bn larger than our EU exports
and are growing NINE TIMES faster

UK exports of goods and services to the (non-EU) world: £398.3bn
Annual growth in non-EU exports: +10.7%
Non-EU exports: 57% of total, and growing fast

The UK’s EU27 exports are £100bn smaller than non-EU exports and are growing very slowly

Exports of goods and services to the EU27: £300.3bn
Annual growth in EU27 exports: +1.2%
EU exports: 43% of total, and falling

What about the balance of trade?
Where does the UK earn money and where does it lose it?

UK’s trade SURPLUS with the non-EU world: +£46.0bn
This increased by 27.1% in 2019 alone
UK’s trade DEFICIT with the EU27: £71.9bn
This worsened by 8.9% in 2019 alone

The UK’s largest trade SURPLUS in 2019 was with the United States, where we exported £47.1 billion more than we imported in goods and services. The UK’s largest trade deficit was with Germany, where we exported £19.3 billion less than we imported.

What about the balance of payments with the EU and with the rest of the world?

In 2019, the UK had a current account DEFICIT with the EU of £109.9 billion
That’s almost -£110 BILLION, IN ONE YEAR
The UK had a current account SURPLUS of £26.1 billion with the rest of the world

How many UK businesses actually export?

According to the latest information (for 2018) from the ONS:-

4.8% of businesses export goods globally (116,500)
6.0% of businesses export services globally (145,500)
9.6% of all businesses export goods or services (233,900)

Statistical note: All the above relates to goods and services for the calendar year 2019. All data comes from official sources, including the Office for National Statistics (ONS), HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), Department for International Trade (DIT), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Is the World ready?

In the last month serious negotiations have started with Japan, Australia and New Zealand, and they continue with the USA. These talks are in effect continuations of the talks started by the Rt Hon Liam Fox MP, when he was head of the Dept for International Trade.

The new boss there is Liz Truss, supported by Greg Hands.

Observations

What’s it really all about, Alfie?

During the 2016 EU Referendum, the official “Stronger In” campaign - backed by the Cameron/Osborne Government and the entire British and Global Establishment – sought to argue on economics. Well, that and an imminent World War Three, and plagues of locusts landing in the Home Counties.

In reality the argument which resonated with real voters was of course about the seemingly-inexorable dis-empowerment of the British nation by an over-reaching, dysfunctional, and unelected eurocracy of frankly mediocre and overpaid officials in Brussels.

Nevertheless, the official Remain campaign chose to focus on the economy.

How has the UK’s trade been with the EU27 over the last 10 years?

One of the great ironies of the last four years since the Referendum, during which the British people have had to endure the most appalling behaviour by ‘the elites’ in Westminster, in the media, in think-tanks, in the luvvie world and elsewhere, has been that the Remain side got it so wrong on one of the main areas they focused on – trade and the economy.

Amazingly, this battle is not yet over. Despite producing otherwise excellent figures last week, some civil servant at the Dept for International Trade still manages to write the following:

“The relative importance of the EU as an export market has declined slightly over the last decade. In 2019, the share of UK exports going to the EU was 43.0% compared to 48.3% in 2009.”

The figures are correct. The characterisation is pure Remainer drivel. To describe a fall in the EU’s share of the UK exports market from 48.3% to 43.0% as “slight” is not only absurd, it is a serious falsehood. It was very disappointing to read this, amongst so much good work.

The fight isn't over yet

When will Remainer civil servants and others finally give up the fight, admit they were wrong, and get behind Great Brexit Britain?

If you can help us to keep getting the truth out there, we need your assistance today. If you believe in freedom of speech and a fully-free and independent United Kingdom, please donate something, using the quick and secure methods below this article. Your support will be fully confidential unless you tell us otherwise and you will receive a friendly email from a member of our team. Thank you so much – we need you.

[ Sources: Office for National Statistics (ONS), HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), Department for International Trade (DIT), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Tues 23 June 2020

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Reader Comments 29

11. Sydney Ashurst , Tuesday, June 23, 2020, 13:39:

Diane,
Davey's Bill is not going anywhere, its as dead as the Dodo, overtaken by the decision in the Act of Parliament not to extend the transition period.
Davey like all LibDem lovey dovey's have no idea what is in the National interest. They will surrender to the EU's demands and give our independence away. Edward Heath was a Liberal not a Tory.
Today's subject, trade surplus, who stands to lose the most on the introduction of Tariffs. As a result of coronavirus we will all become canny buyers, there were queues outside Primark the day it opened. My guess is the trade surplus will dwindle.

12. Derek Lund , Tuesday, June 23, 2020, 14:19:

Hello again Diane, comment 10. Yes, the Brexit fudge as reported by Conservative Woman would be an ideal get out for someone who doesn't want to make a decision, leave others to sort out the mess and yet claim credit for a "deal" with the EU. The EU would be free to use its malign influence in many ways including hampering us when striking trade deals with other trade partners.
In an attempt to be optimistic, I would say that our government's overall attitude and negotiating stance so far has been encouraging and WTO is now indicated. Also, the CW article thinks that the Brexit fudge resembles the Chequers deal and this was the trigger for Boris Johnson's resignation from cabinet. 'Chuck Chequers' was his slogan. Therefore, if he remains consistent, Boris Johnson must reject any idea of a Brexit fudge. Also the emphasis from our government on global opportunities, trade talks and the UK's dynamism isn't consistent with Brexit fudge.
Yet why are we unsettled? Have the Brexit negotiatons just been a theatrical farce and was the WTO indication just a diversionary device? What else can we do after receiving the predictable, bland "we take Brexit seriously" reply letter from our MP? Is it time to fire up the Brexit Party again? Has anyone got Nigel's mobile number?

13. JonL , Tuesday, June 23, 2020, 18:26:

I would not be too quick to dismiss the usefulness of a Brexit fudge. If it gives the UK most of what we want, but allows the EU to save face, I can't see what's wrong with it. For example, to refuse to be legally bound to the EU's version of their level playing field, but to begin by being voluntarily aligned to it at our discretion, while conceding their right to raise tariffs on just those areas where we decide to diverge in future, is a good step. It avoids immediate trade disruption, it prevents legal EU jurisdiction and the future application of the EU ratchet, and it leaves the UK free to diverge in future, which would make most sense in areas of trade where the EU declines in importance and the rest of the World increases. To have the EU increase tariffs on contracting areas of trade while the UK and its other partners reduce tariffs in expanding areas, makes pretty good sense.
A sudden break with the EU will give some people considerable emotional satisfaction, but a more gradual adjustment that allows both sides to take credit for good sense, is a better basis for future relations. The long-term decline in the EU's share of UK trade is the clue; since it is happening anyway, we don't have to push too hard.

14. Derek Lund , Tuesday, June 23, 2020, 20:04:

Hi JonL, comment 13: I can see the attraction of the concept of gradual adjustment but I can also see boundless opportunities for complexity. How, for instance, would you assess the effect of a change to the level playing field in (say) corporation tax rates or capital allowances on (say) the area of trade that includes Scotch whisky? I would much prefer a clean break, not for emotional reasons but because it gives absolute simplicity and certainty, a certainty that we can pursue our own domestic and trade policies without having to figure out what the effect might be on the Brexit fudge agreement. This approach, I'll grant you, doesn't save faces.
You mention the decline in the EU's share of UK trade and it's an excellent example of the concept of gradual adjustment which is happening right now. The figures are somewhere here in facts4EU.
Finally, and to continue with the above Scotch whisky theme, a clean break would mean that, come 1 Jan 2021, I can stop fretting about the whole darned business and settle down with my bottle of Glenlivet 15 !! (Couldn't afford the 18)

15. Brexit means Brexit Essex , Tuesday, June 23, 2020, 20:08:

JonL there can be no Brexit fudge.The EU does not recognise any country outside their sphere of control.To enter into such an agreement with the EU would open a huge can of worms,remember this negotiation will be a treaty with the EU and there will be fines or tariffs imposed for perceived breaches of the treaty.The treaty needs to be clear to both parties.I understand that the much vaunted EU/Canada treaty has already gone into the disputes procedure by the Canadians because of "misunderstandings" of the interpretation of the treaty.The EU wants to shore up its membership, it has got to show that to leave their club, a country will be worse off.Hence the attempt to punish the UK for leaving,by offering trade rules and regulations that are not as good as they have offered other countries in trade agreements. Last week the EU Parliament voted decisively to reject any trade deal with the UK unless the EU had full access to UK fishing grounds as at present.No sovereign nation would accept that,so unless they back down,which would appear unlikely,no trade deal is possible.

16. Steve H , Tuesday, June 23, 2020, 20:44:

Wow, so exports to non-EU countries grew 9 times faster than exports to the EU while we were still a member of the EU eh? Who would have thought!
We could have increased our exports further to the rest of the world while still enjoying the benefits of membership through approx 40 trade deals we helped negotiate with over 70 countries AND have kept the enormous trading benefits members of the single market and customs union bring. A win win situation that Brexiters never seem able to understand. I've actually spoken to some Brexiters who are convinced we are not allowed to trade with anyone else apart from the EU while we are members... and they voted in the referendum!! Arrgh!
If Germany can export 4 times as much to China than we do while members of the EU, there has never been anything under EU membership stopping us doing the same.
Your non EU export argument therefore holds no weight whatsoever.

17. JonL , Wednesday, June 24, 2020, 01:40:

Derek Lund: thanks for the measured response. You ask how the effects of a divergence could be measured and converted into a tariff rise, and the answer is that there is no objective way of doing so, and therefore a formula would have to be negotiated in advance, as part of the FTA. I am not nervous of such a negotiation because I think that the UK employs excellent negotiators. The thing I am afraid of, and which I keep returning to, is allowing the EU any legal power over the UK - for example by a Treaty agreement to "obey" this, that and the other - because that sets up a situation where one side has all the negotiating power.
I don't know how helpful this is, but for a long time I have said that no-deal does not remain no-deal and an FTA does not remain an FTA. No-deal eventually leads to separate agreements in critical areas where both sides must trade, and an FTA eventually gets amended as trade in one area or another changes. The idea of voluntary alignment, followed by divergence, gets us to that situation sooner.

18. JonL , Wednesday, June 24, 2020, 01:44:

Brexit means Brexit: I note your points and I agree with you on EU motives. On your predictions, I doubt if we can currently prove them right or wrong, so I will be willing to wait and see.

19. Patrick F , Wednesday, June 24, 2020, 04:55:

The Daily Hero is worried. Very worried. As the number of cases of Covid 19 continues to fall so does the number of heroes in the UK. This is expressed as the H rate (source: Imperial College, "The H rate in the UK", authored by the SAGE and ONION committee)
Currently we have, on average, 15 new heroes a day. Unless there is a second spike, or a new virus, then we may have fewer than that.
If we have fewer than 10 new heroes a day, The Daily Hero will cease publication.

20. Michael B , Wednesday, June 24, 2020, 05:09:

And if the EU refuses to offer a workable free trade deal this trend will acellarate! They refuse to accept reality that they either compete or lose even more trade! A WTO Brexit will force their hand!

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