Will the Scottish people really vote for economic EU-reunion?

Not if they are given the facts before any new "IndyRef"

The numbers don’t even stack up for the EU to accept a Scottish application to join

In the final part of our three-part series on Scotland and the EU, Brexit Facts4EU.Org looks at the basic economic consequences of a newly-independent Scotland trying to join the European Union.

We also interviewed a prominent Scottish politician for his views.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Scotland and the EU

  • 60% of Scotland’s exports go to the rest of the UK
  • Only 18% of Scotland’s exports go to the EU27
  • Scotland’s economy is a long way from being acceptable to the EU
  • Scotland’s deficit is 7 times that of the UK as a whole, and more than double the EU’s criteria
  • Before applying, Scotland would need huge expenditure cuts, a currency, and a central bank
  • It would also need a hard border with England, and a border in the Irish Sea
  • It would have to commit to joining the Euro and accepting the Schengen open borders policy
  • It would have to apply EU tariffs on goods entering from the rest of the UK

Just how valuable to Scotland is the EU, for exports?

Below we show the latest figures available (for 2017) from the Scottish Government, for total exports from Scotland.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Scotland's exports

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org - click to enlarge

  • The rest of the UK is by far the biggest export market for Scotland
  • 60.1% of Scottish exports go to the rest of the UK
  • The rest of the world is the second-largest export market, with 21.6%
  • The USA is the largest non-UK and non-EU market, with £5.5 bn of total Scottish exports going there
  • The EU27 countries trail in last place, with 18.3%

Here is what the EU itself says about countries wishing to join:-

“Member States are expected to co-ordinate their economic policies and are subject to the Stability and Growth Pact on fiscal surveillance. New Member States are also committed to complying with the criteria laid down in the Treaty in order to be able to adopt the euro in due course after accession.

“Until then, they will participate in the Economic and Monetary Union as a Member State with a derogation from the use of the euro and shall treat their exchange rates as a matter of common concern.”

Just one of the EU’s many criteria – having government spending under control

We will look at just one of the essential economic criteria referred to above. Protocol 12 of the TFEU (Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union) stipulates:

“3% for the ratio of the planned or actual government deficit to GDP at market prices”

Scotland’s Net Fiscal Balance 2018-19:

  • Deficit of £12.6 billion - 7.0% of GDP - including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue
  • For the UK,a deficit of £23.5 billion - 1.1% of GDP

Scotland’s Current Budget Balance 2018-19 (excluding capital expenditure):

  • Deficit of £7.9 billion - 4.4% of GDP - including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue
  • For the UK, a surplus of £18.1 billion - 0.8% of GDP

- Source: Scottish Government: “Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2018-2019”, 21 Aug 2019

For Scotland to meet the EU’s membership criteria it would have to make
savage cuts in the devolved government’s public expenditure.

The Scottish National Party (SNP)

The SNP is Scotland’s largest political party. It has 62 MSPs (Members of the Scottish Parliament) in Holyrood, Edinburgh, which gives it three short of an overall majority.

In the United Kingdom Parliament at Westminster it has 47 MPs. This makes it the third-largest political party in the UK Parliament, although it must be said that Scotland is significantly over-represented there by population.

The SNP manifesto 2019 on Brexit

“We will work with others across Scotland and the UK to escape from Brexit. In a UK context, we will support a second EU referendum with Remain on the ballot paper. And if it is the only alternative to a ‘no deal’ Brexit, we will support the revocation of Article 50.

“The SNP believes the best future for Scotland is to become an independent member of the EU.”

Brexit Facts4EU.Org interviewed an experienced Scottish politician

Interview with MEP and former MSP Brian Monteith

Brian Monteith MEP is currently Chief Whip of the Brexit Party at the EU Parliament. Prior to that he served eight years as an MSP in the Scottish Parliament, including four as Convenor of the Public Audit Committee.

Here is what he told us about Scotland and the EU:-

“Some of the things Scotland could expect: it would need to resolve the problem of establishing its own currency with its own Central Bank so that it could agree to joining the Euro at some point in the future (both are pre-requisites to joining the Euro).

“How would Scotland establish the reserves necessary for a Central Bank when it is already carrying a huge annual deficit and running up public debt every year?

“It would be expected to join Schengen - automatically creating the need for a physical border to process individuals travelling between England and Scotland; by accepting the single market and customs union it would anyhow require a border for goods. There is no Irish sea between Scotland and England to fudge the issue.

“Scotland would be a net contributor. Scotland's valuable fisheries would be brought back within the Common Fisheries Policy, hitting Scottish fishing communities who were expecting to take back control. And there are many other issues.”

Observations

Brexit was never about trade or economics. It was always about freedom, democracy and sovereignty. This is something the Remain campaign never understood.

When it comes to Scottish independence, we understand that for many Scottish people the issues are not economic, just as they weren’t for Brexiteers in the EU Referendum.

That said, there are some fundamental facts which the Scottish people deserve to know. Above we have tried to highlight some of these because they are so overwhelming.

In this three-part series we have tried to demonstrate some of the basic issues which would face Scotland in the event of another independence referendum, only five years after the one which the leader of the SNP called a “once in a lifetime decision”.

The big question for Scotland

The biggest question of all, of course, is why any of the pro-independence Scottish people would ever wish to gain independence from the rest of the UK, only to cede this very same independence to the unelected bureaucrats of Brussels.

This is the SNP’s avowed policy, and we will never understand the rationale for this. We suspect the majority of the Scottish people will not either, but we have learnt from the last four years of the UK’s Brexit machinations that state-backed propaganda is a powerful weapon which must be countered with a professional campaign.

Please donate to us today if you find our research and articles useful. Without members of the public donating, we will have to scale back our efforts dramatically in this very important year. Secure and quick donation methods are below. Thank you.

[ Sources: Scottish Government | EU Commission | Brian Monteith MEP ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, 01 Jan 2020

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