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BREXIT INTERVIEWS
~ INTERESTING PEOPLE TO LISTEN TO ~
Below are interviews which have appeared on our news pages
'EU INTENDS TO REPLACE NATO'
FACTS4EU.ORG EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW 
WITH FALKLANDS WAR LEGEND
QUESTION : WHO WOULD YOU RATHER TRUST ON DEFENCE?
MAJ GEN JULIAN THOMPSON, CB, OBE
“I’m quite clear that the intention of the European Union is to set up its own defence organisation which - I believe - they hope will eventually replace NATO.”
Distinguished Royal Marine officer who led 3 Commando Brigade and as British Land Commander led the amphibious assault to retake the Falkland Islands, now Visiting Professor at the Department of War Studies, King's College.
When it comes to defence of the Realm, who would you rather trust?
RT HON NICK CLEGG MP
“The idea of an EU Army is a dangerous fantasy that is simply not true.”
Former EU Commission bureaucrat, lobbyist, MEP and MP, who led his party to a crushing defeat in the 2015 General Election and was Party Spokesman who helped to lose the EU Referendum.
In November General Thompson spoke exclusively to the Editor of Facts4EU.Org about the EU and its plans for the future defence of Europe. Here are some highlights :-
FACTS4EU.ORG EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW
WITH MAJOR GENERAL THOMPSON, CB, OBE
Commander, British amphibious assault forces, for the retaking of the Falkland Islands
Q: What are your views on the intentions of the EU and its ‘European Defence Union’?
A: “I’m quite clear that the intention of the European Union is to set up its own defence organisation which - I believe - they hope will eventually replace NATO.”
Q: Do you think the EU has the capability - financial and operational - to fulfil that role going forward?
A: “They do not have that operational capability and in order to replicate what NATO provides, they would have to fill a 75% gap in the finance, which at the moment is borne by the United States of America. This would mean that members of this new organisation would have to increase their defence budget by a very large magnitude in order to fill the gap that would be left if they withdrew from NATO and tried to set up something which replicated it.”
Q: How do you feel the issue of defence was dealt with during the Referendum campaign? Did the British public get a fair view of the implications for defence of a Remain or Leave vote?
A: “I think defence was not talked about to the extent it should have been in the run-up to the Referendum. I believe this was mainly because the Remain side wanted to close down discussion on defence. They knew they couldn’t ‘win it’ and therefore they turned their energies to what they believed would really frighten the public, which were matters like the economy and employment. That’s why defence was given a back seat in the run-up to the Referendum.”
Q: How do you think the officers and men you commanded would react if we stayed within the EU in some form and became part of the European Defence Union? How would they feel if the United Kingdom combined forces, materiel, procurement, and command with other nation states within an EU structure?
A: “I can’t speak for others, but my view is that I’d be extremely worried because the European Union is run in such a way that those who run it are not answerable to an electorate. Men and women who have put their lives on the line want to feel that the people who send them into places of danger are answerable to the public whom they serve and not to some faceless oligarchs who are not elected by the public.”
Major General Thompson is a man you listen to. He impresses with his calm and measured tones, and it’s immediately obvious why our servicemen and women put their lives in his hands for over 30 years.
We know who we’d rather believe in a choice between Mr Clegg and General Thompson.
[Source : Exclusive Facts4EU.Org interview with Maj Gen Julian Thompson, CB, OBE – 22 Nov 2016 ]            23 Nov 2016
FACTS4EU.ORG 
Professor Patrick Minford CBE
THE MINFORD FILES               Roll the tape:
In late November Professor Minford kindly gave us an exclusive and far-ranging interview on the subject of Brexit.
The following articles come from our news pages in November and December.
Prof Minford is founder of 'Economists for Brexit' and has researched and written widely on the EU for over 30 years. He is Professor of Applied Economics, Cardiff Business School, having previously been a Member of the Monopolies and Mergers Commission and one of the HM Treasury’s Panel of Forecasters (‘Wise Men/Persons’) in the 1990s.
FACTS4EU.ORG 
EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH A BIG BREXIT BRAIN
Professor Patrick Minford CBE
"THE EU HAS GONE EX-GROWTH"
"We just have to accept that the EU is a ruinous project. The Euro itself is a ruinous project. The centralisation that’s going on in the EU in order to save the Euro will also be a ruinous project."
Yesterday we interviewed Professor Patrick Minford at length. Prof Minford is founder of 'Economists for Brexit' and has researched and written widely on the EU for over 30 years.
  • He opposed Nigel Lawson’s policy of shadowing the Deutschmark
  • He opposed joining the disastrous Exchange Rate Mechanism
  • He opposed adopting the Euro
  • He opposed the Social Chapter
  • The vast majority of his profession disagreed with him on all these things
  • Yet he's been proved right on all counts
COMING TOMORROW
We will be publishing the interview with Professor Minford in a series of articles, starting tomorrow morning.
He tells it like it is and is fascinating to listen to. You don't want to miss his views on Brexit, the opportunities ahead of the UK, how trade should be organised, how the EU has become a 'ruinous project', the manner in which we should leave the EU, the cost of EU immigration, and other topics.
[Source: Facts4EU.Org Interview With Professor Patrick Minford ]            27 Nov 2016
Professor Patrick Minford CBE
FACTS4EU.ORG EXCLUSIVE 
THE MINFORD TAPES - PART 1
Why are you a leaver? Why are most 'experts' Remainers?
Prof Minford is founder of 'Economists for Brexit' and has researched and written widely on the EU for over 30 years. He is Professor of Applied Economics, Cardiff Business School, having previously been a Member of the Monopolies and Mergers Commission and one of the HM Treasury’s Panel of Forecasters (‘Wise Men/Persons’) in the 1990s.
At the weekend Professor Minford kindly gave us a lengthy and exclusive interview on a wide range of subject matter connected with Brexit. This is Part One.
1.  'THE CIVIL SERVICE DOESN'T LIKE LEAVE'
Q: You’re Oxford-educated, you’ve worked as an advisor for the Treasury, and you’re now a university professor... Shouldn’t you be a Remainer? What went wrong?
A: “My opposition to the EU dates from the late 1980s when [then EU Commission President] Delors changed direction towards a single market, towards a uniform regulatory regime, towards setting up the Euro, and towards a superstate. I’ve studied all aspects of it since then...
... and I just said ‘Wrong, wrong, wrong.'
'This is completely the wrong direction for Europe to take.’”
Q: Why do the professions and the Civil Service tend to favour Remain?
A: “I think the economics profession attracts people who have the desire to change society in some way and have idealistic views about that. The EU is identified with becoming more and more interventionist in everyday life, pursuing socialist intervention in the labour market, climate change of course, anti-free market finance, quite pro-corporatism. The regulations coming out of Brussels always favoured large corporations and were essentially corporatist in nature. There was a general bias in the profession towards these policies and so they felt Europe was on their side and they tended to support everything Europe did.
"As for the Civil Service, it dislikes change almost by professional instinct...
... and so it has thoroughly disliked this idea of leaving the EU”
They really can’t get their minds around – or don’t want to get their minds around – what life would look like without it. They certainly haven’t been able to get their minds around the idea of free trade with the rest of the world and getting rid of EU protectionism. That’s the stumbling block."
Q: Will we truly leave the EU in your opinion?
A: “Yes I think we will. There’s no way in which they can deny the democratic outcome. If they were to try, there would be complete uproar in the country.
"There has been this tectonic shift in public opinion. The penny dropped with an awful lot of voters that by leaving they would get control of the impoverishing effect of this unskilled immigration. That really is very serious for a lot of these communities. The cost that I talked about – the £3,500 per year per adult immigrant [1] – falls on our poorest communities. That was a big issue economically.
[1] The Professor's comments about the cost of EU immigration are in another part of this interview.
"The other big issue is the cost of living and I think the penny dropped there too. The EU pushes up the cost of living. The exchange rate has fallen of course which has an inflationary effect but it will slowly drift back up. I would say over the next 2-3 years the exchange rate will go back up and when we come out you’d be left then with just the pure benefit of not having the EU's effect on prices.
"People are also clear about the sovereignty issue, the control of our lives, and laws.
"What you’ll get will be shows of resistance, there’ll be a lot of parliamentary committees asking questions which is all very healthy, and there’ll be lots of debate. But the government will get its way to do the negotiation."
[Source: Facts4EU.Org Interview With Professor Patrick Minford ]            28 Nov 2016
Professor Patrick Minford CBE
FACTS4EU.ORG EXCLUSIVE 
THE MINFORD TAPES - PART 2
The Single Market and the Customs Union
Prof Minford is founder of 'Economists for Brexit' and has researched and written widely on the EU for over 30 years. He is Professor of Applied Economics, Cardiff Business School, having previously been a Member of the Monopolies and Mergers Commission and one of the HM Treasury’s Panel of Forecasters (‘Wise Men/Persons’) in the 1990s.
At the weekend Professor Minford kindly gave us a lengthy and exclusive interview on a wide range of subject matter connected with Brexit. This is Part Two.
2.  'THE EU PRICES WE’RE PAYING ARE 20% HIGHER'
Q: What are your views on the single market and the customs union?
A: “The single market regulatory system is not a good project. It’s accompanied by all sorts of intrusive and growth-denying regulations.
"The research work that I’ve done with my co-authors has revealed that the EU is highly protectionist in the areas of food and manufactures. When we compared prices between imports from the most competitive supplier in the OECD and ex-factory prices at a border inside the EU...
... the EU prices we’re paying are 20% higher."
Q: What about the services sector?
A: “When it comes to services, the EU doesn’t have any commercial policy. The UK has always been very competitive and we’ve had very liberal entry into our services market. Fundamentally the EU has brought down the pre-existing national barriers in services but this hasn’t affected us, because we’ve been free market in services for a very long time.
Q: So your general thoughts are what?
A : "What all this talk about trade comes down to is that the big gains we make from leaving the EU are by going to free trade, by getting rid of these barriers that the EU has set up on our behalf.
"Going to free trade in food and manufactures, getting rid of the CAP, getting rid of the customs union, and either just abolishing our trade barriers or negotiating them down by free trade agreements...
... this all means consumer prices come down.
This is like a huge tax cut for the consumer and leads to more competition across the economy, particularly in food and manufactures, and also leads to some shift of resources away from these protected sectors into non-protected sectors.
Q: How important are free trade deals versus doing things unilaterally?
A : "There are many ways to get to that free trade outcome. One way is to go to unilateral free trade and just ‘walk away’ and not care what the EU does. You would still get that gain. The point we make is that in that long-term trade model, any protection that anyone puts on us just causes trade diversion – we would sell less to them and more to other people. That’s the result of free competition and free entry in the long run.
"In our long-term trade analysis we don’t really give a fig for the FTAs [free trade agreements] we might do with the EU and across the world. However, when you get to the short run – obviously there are many routes to this free trade outcome – there is less disruption of the economy if you can get less trade diversion.
"You can do FTAs with people, and this is perfectly fine. As long as it doesn’t interfere with our free trade with them. Our main object is to get to free trade with other people. If as part of this they can reduce trade barriers towards us then that’s a bonus because it reduces short-term disruption."
[Source: Facts4EU.Org Interview on 26 Nov With Professor Patrick Minford ]            01 Dec 2016
Professor Patrick Minford CBE
FACTS4EU.ORG EXCLUSIVE 
THE MINFORD TAPES - PART 3
The Cost of Unskilled Immigration
Prof Minford is founder of 'Economists for Brexit' and has researched and written widely on the EU for over 30 years. He is Professor of Applied Economics, Cardiff Business School, having previously been a Member of the Monopolies and Mergers Commission and one of the HM Treasury’s Panel of Forecasters (‘Wise Men/Persons’) in the 1990s.
Continuation of our lengthy and exclusive Brexit interview with the eminent economist Professor Minford.
PART 3:  'EACH UNSKILLED EU MIGRANT COSTS THE TAXPAYER AN
                AVERAGE OF £3,500 PER YEAR'
Q:   EU migrants are said by many experts to have a positive benefit for the UK economy. What is your analysis?
A:   "Firstly, no-one is arguing that we should restrict skilled immigration. The net benefits from skilled immigration would remain broadly the same and it would be unskilled EU immigration that would fall.
"The key question about immigration is what are the costs of unskilled immigration. We quantified this unskilled immigration from the EU. We calculated that ... "
"... the average adult unskilled EU immigrant costs the taxpayer £3,500 per year."
"That’s a revision of the paper we originally put out and it’s available on the Economists for Brexit site. That comes to a cost to the UK economy of about £6 billion a year."
Below we're reproducing one of the calculations from the Economists for Brexit site.
This shows how the full costs of unskilled migrants need to be taken into account. These include in-work benefits, housing, and other costs such as education and usage of the NHS.
Economists for Brexit looked at a great deal of data in producing their average cost per adult migrant figure of £3,500 per year. For example the high cost of migrants who are couples with children is mitigated by the much lower cost of a single EU migrant with no dependents.
It still results in unskilled EU migrants being a net cost to the UK taxpayer of £3,500 per year per adult migrant.
Their report on this is here.
[Source: Facts4EU.Org Interview on 26 Nov With Professor Patrick Minford ]            02 Dec 2016
Professor Patrick Minford CBE
FACTS4EU.ORG EXCLUSIVE 
THE MINFORD TAPES - PART 4
PRICE FALLS, GROWTH INCREASES, AND INDUSTRY
Prof Minford is founder of 'Economists for Brexit' and has researched and written widely on the EU for over 30 years. He is Professor of Applied Economics, Cardiff Business School, having previously been a Member of the Monopolies and Mergers Commission and one of the HM Treasury’s Panel of Forecasters (‘Wise Men/Persons’) in the 1990s.
Continuation of extracts from our exclusive Brexit interview with the eminent economist Professor Minford.
PART 4:  “PRICES FALL ON DAY ONE BY 8%”
Q:   How will Brexit affect prices overall?
A:   "The moment we leave the EU, and leave the CAP and the customs union, prices fall on Day One by 8% and in the long run after that works its way through the economy. This is the case even though we assume that over the next decade EU protection would have fallen gradually to half its current level. It’s still 8% because it lowers prices in the non-traded sector."
Q:   And how will Brexit affect growth?
A:   "We’ll get about 2% extra cumulative growth by 2020. In the long term, trade alone brings in another 4%, but of course this requires all the protectionism to be gone and time for things to work through. Then on top of that you get gains from having control of our regulations and you get further gains from controlling unskilled immigration."
"We estimated that the existing regulations brought in by the EU over the last 20-odd years have probably knocked 6% off our GDP. Of course we’ve adjusted to those and brought in some offsetting regulations, things like zero-hour contracts which have offset quite a lot of that EU interference in our labour market."
"Although that was what EU regulation did to us, we think about 2% of that could be rolled back."
Q:   So what are the prospects for our manufacturing sector?
A:   "I see manufacturing doing what it has done in the past, which is to go up the value-added chain, increasing productivity by going more high-tech. This would essentially preserve many parts of it, and it would take on more of the characteristics of the service sector. The kinds of things service industries do are skilled labour-intensive, not the pure production end of things."
Q:   What about the rejuvenation of the British car industry?
A:   "When you exert competition on an industry, it reinvents itself, going high-tech, and that’s exactly what cars have done. I always enjoy pointing out that 2/3rds of our car exports go outside the EU. It’s a highly competitive world market."
"Some of manufacturing will further contract but of course it’s already contracted massively, from 35% of employment in 1970, to 8% today, so there’s nothing new about that. I think gradually people have got used to this. Initially it was all shock-horror because politicians are used to paying huge obeisance to the idea of manufacturing and George Osborne was always talking about rebuilding and rebalancing towards manufacturing which was always complete nonsense of course. None of it happened. But there is this great taboo subject amongst politicians as I discovered."
"Now we’re in the business of Brexit they’re beginning to face up to it and see that it’s not as horrible as they thought. It was a bit of a shock to them when all the car manufacturing constituencies voted Leave!"
[Source: Facts4EU.Org Interview on 26 Nov With Professor Patrick Minford ]            03 Dec 2016
Professor Patrick Minford CBE
FACTS4EU.ORG EXCLUSIVE 
THE MINFORD TAPES - PART 5
PROSPECTS FOR THE EU27 AND THE EURO
Prof Minford is founder of 'Economists for Brexit' and has researched and written widely on the EU for over 30 years. He is Professor of Applied Economics, Cardiff Business School, having previously been a Member of the Monopolies and Mergers Commission and one of the HM Treasury’s Panel of Forecasters (‘Wise Men/Persons’) in the 1990s.
Continuation of extracts from our exclusive Brexit interview with the eminent economist Professor Minford.
PART 5:  “EU HAS GONE EX-GROWTH. IT'S A RUINOUS PROJECT.”
Q:   What are your views on the prospects for the EU27 and the Euro?
A:   "The point is that the EU is a political project, so it’s very hard to judge how much pain and disaster the EU27 will endure in order to stick with this political project. I’ve been appalled by how the Greeks, the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Italians, have been prepared to put up with mayhem in their economies simply to stay inside the EU structure. The Greeks in particular would not even leave the Euro because they saw that as so politically threatening, leaving the Euro and then maybe being ejected from the EU and being at the mercy of the Turks. With the Spanish, they’re terrified of their own politics. They think the EU disciplines their own politics. So these countries won’t leave the institution."
"People in the UK think that somehow in Europe they’ll throw over the traces and give up on the EU or give up on the Euro. I have to say I don’t think that’s at all likely. Unless there’s some big overturning of the existing order in say Italy, or in France if Le Pen were to win, but otherwise the elites of these countries have frightened their populaces into never leaving the EU institution..."
"... I’m just incredibly gloomy, I think Europe has gone ex-growth ..."
"... There’s so much overlay of bureaucratic intervention, regulation, centralising diktat in every area, and cover-up. You look at the Italian banks and everyone knows they’re in terrible shape, but it’s just being swept under the carpet the whole time."
"The EU will stagger on for political reasons because there’s so much invested in this project..."
"... We just have to accept that this is a ruinous project.
The Euro itself is a ruinous project ..."
"... The centralisation that’s going on in the EU in order to save the Euro will also be a ruinous project. The single market regulatory system is not a good project. It’s accompanied by all sorts of intrusive and growth-denying regulations. This is just going to go on and on."
"I’m afraid I’m just very pessimistic about the future of growth in Europe. It will probably just stagger on. It may achieve a bit over 1%, who knows if it will even achieve that. Italy is still 8% below its previous peak, it’s extraordinary. The unemployment is dreadful. The lack of ability to reform comes out of that. The EU will never reform."
"It’s going to become a backward area I’m afraid, in terms of the rest of the world. The growth is all going to be somewhere else."
[Source: Facts4EU.Org Interview on 26 Nov With Professor Patrick Minford ]            04 Dec 2016
Professor Patrick Minford CBE
FACTS4EU.ORG EXCLUSIVE 
THE MINFORD TAPES - FINAL PART
WILL WE LEAVE, AND HOW TO DO IT
Prof Minford is founder of 'Economists for Brexit' and has researched and written widely on the EU for over 30 years. He is Professor of Applied Economics, Cardiff Business School, having previously been a Member of the Monopolies and Mergers Commission and one of the HM Treasury’s Panel of Forecasters (‘Wise Men/Persons’) in the 1990s.
The FINAL PART of our exclusive Brexit interview with the eminent economist Professor Minford.
PART 6:  “GIVE THE EU 3 MONTHS, THEN WE'RE OFF.”
Q:   Will we ever truly leave the EU?
A:   "Yes I think we will. There’s no way in which they can deny the democratic outcome. If they were to try, there would be complete uproar in the country.
"There has been this tectonic shift in public opinion. The penny dropped with an awful lot of voters that by leaving they would get control of the impoverishing effect of this unskilled immigration. That really is very serious for a lot of these communities ...
"... The cost that I talked about – the £3,500 per year per adult immigrant – falls on our poorest communities. That was a big issue economically ..."
"The other big issue is the cost of living and I think the penny dropped there too. The EU pushes up the cost of living. The exchange rate has fallen of course which has an inflationary effect but it will slowly drift back up.
"I would say over the next 2-3 years the exchange rate will go back up and you’d be left then with just the pure effect of the EU on prices when we come out.
"People are also clear about the sovereignty issue, the control of our lives, and laws.
"What you’ll get will be shows of resistance, there’ll be a lot of parliamentary committees asking questions which is all very healthy, and there’ll be lots of debate. But the government will get its way to do the negotiation."
Q:   "What about the negotiations with the EU? Will they not drag things on for 10 years if we let them?
A:   "Yes I agree ...
"... Give them 3 months and if they’re not going to be sensible then we’re off ..."
"... Then we can do deals over important nuts and bolts things like the rights of EU people living here and British people living there. The biggest worry would be if they just kept us at the table for umpteen years.
"All we really want is our own unilateral free trade. If we can get it by multilateral action I’m not against that, as it brings in less short-term disruption but fundamentally that’s the big gain to be had here.
"I don’t think the EU is going to do a deal, but miracles may happen ..."
"... After all, Eastern Europe needs us for NATO, Bavaria needs us for car sales, so who knows? But I rather think it may not happen.
Q:   "AND FINALLY PROFESSOR, what would you do if you were in charge?
A:   "I would trigger Article 50 straight away. Then I would bring in the Great Repeal Bill. I would then press on very rapidly with the whole process ...
"... Give them 3 months to get their act together in terms of an FTA. If they can’t do that in 3 months I would simply say okay and press on. ..."
"... I would say maybe you’ll come to your senses, but go ahead, put up the tariffs against us, it’s 3.5% average, we’ll deal with it. The main thing is for us to remove our own barriers which you’ve erected on our behalf. We’ll have control of our regulations and our borders, with a sensible approach to unskilled immigration.
"It could be done very fast. There’s lots of nuts and bolts which have to be negotiated which would go on, to do with customs controls etc, which could be done over time. But I would get the main things done, and publish everything to give total certainty to everyone about what we’re doing.
"There’s been this uncertainty about a Soft Brexit – which is simply the status quo – or the Hard Brexit would bring all these benefits that we talked about. They would know it would be a Hard Brexit, they would then start thinking about the opportunities that would bring, and I think that would be tremendously positive for the economy.
"Then out of all that there would a whole reform agenda for how we become a competitive economy in the light of the competitive world we live in, get the tax system right, get all sorts of regulatory systems right."
"It’s an incredibly exciting agenda I think.
I think it’s like a second supply-side revolution."
[Source: Facts4EU.Org Interview on 26 Nov With Professor Patrick Minford ]            06 Dec 2016
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