New & Exclusive : The Facts4EU.Org ‘Immigration Dashboard and Tracker’ 2025

Revealed: The number of illegal boat migrants sailed through the 150,000 mark on Boxing Day

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2025

We call to account Sir Keir on illegal boat migrants, costs, etc – How is he doing versus Rishi?

As Sir Keir Starmer’s administration hits its six-month birthday this Sunday, he will no doubt have been relieved that no-one appeared to notice that the total number of illegal boat migrants entering the UK since the start of the crisis had just exceeded 150,000 on his watch. This happened on Boxing Day. Of course he may have had other things on his mind, while he was holidaying with his family in Madeira.

It seems an appropriate moment for the independent Facts4EU think-tank to release the second in its series of ‘Government Dashboards and Trackers’. Today we launch our Immigration Dashboard and Tracker, to complement those on the economy which we published on Tuesday (31 Dec 2024).

The launch of the Facts4EU.Org Immigration Dashboard and Tracker

We launch today with some key, benchmark measures which we believe the public will want to know, two of which involve direct comparisons between the last Conservative administration of Rishi Sunak and today’s Labour Government, led by Sir Keir Starmer.

We have decided to launch a limited version of the Tracker and to build on it over time as the information becomes available and more reliable. Today we are only publishing firm figures. (There is more about this below.) As with our 'Facts4EU Government Dashboard and Tracker : ECONOMY' which we published on Tuesday (New Year's Eve 2024), we will start with the quick view afforded by our 'Dashboard'. We have confined this to numbers which can be directly compared between the Sunak and Starmer administrations. These relate to Small Boat Illegal Migrants, as these numbers are reported by the Home Office daily.

The Facts4EU Immigration Dashboard – Year ending Dec 2024

Next up is the 'Facts4EU Government Tracker : IMMIGRATION', revealing more benchmarks for future comparisons

Whilst the Dashboard gives a good, quick feel for how things are going under Labour, most readers will want more. We have therefore developed our new ‘Facts4EU Government Tracker: IMMIGRATION’, containing the metrics in the Dashboard and adding in more, to create a table of 8 key measures by which to judge the Government’s ongoing performance. We will be adding to this over time, as explained further down.

The Facts4EU Government Tracker: IMMIGRATION – Latest data up to end Dec 2024

[Sources: Home Office | ONS | HoCL | HMRC.]

More details and explanations

Below we expand on and comment on some of the information in our Dashboard and Tracker. We fully understand that some readers might be frustrated at our inability to provide more details than those we have shown above. Our benchmarking exercise for immigration is a little different to the work we undertook on statistics for the Economy Tracker. This is primarily for three reasons :-

The official information frequently lags well behind, which makes it hard to track the new Labour Government’s performance at this time
In the last few years the official data has been in the middle of a major overhaul in the way it is collected and analysed, as the authorities have finally woken up to the fact that what we were being presented with could not possibly have been right, and
Bizarrely, immigration can be highly seasonal, making month-by-month or quarter-by quarter comparisons dangerous

Several years ago it was Facts4EU.Og that led the charge on the disparity between HMRC data for new National Insurance numbers (without which migrants can't claim benefits or work) and the information being produced by the Home Office and others. We argued that the Home Office data was unreliable and was severely understating the problem. Finally we have been vindicated and the ONS and Home Office are working with HMRC and the DWP to attempt to sort out the mess. The House of Commons researchers put it fairly succinctly in December :

Migrant population estimates paused

"As of November 2024, the latest detailed estimates of the migrant population of the UK were for the year ending June 2021."
"The number of migrants living in the UK – and the number of people living in the UK in general – cannot be counted exactly. There is no system in place such as a population register, which some other countries have, to provide us with an exact figure."
- House of Commons researchers, Dec 2024

Commentary

Here we highlight just a few of the measures above.

Total net immigration

Yr ending Jun 2020 : 111,000
Yr ending Jun 2021 : 254,000
Yr ending Jun 2022 : 634,000
Yr ending Jun 2023 : 906,000
Yr ending Jun 2024 : 728,000
5-year total : 2,633,000

“Net migration has been markedly high since 2021. Between 2021 and 2023, migration added roughly 2.2 million people to the UK population, which was around the same number as the total added in the ten years before that (2.3 million between 2011 and 2020).”
- House of Commons Research Dept

Total illegal boat migrants

Total Illegal Boat Migrants since the problem began in 2018: 151,137. Under Sir Keir’s watch, it exceeded 150,000 on Boxing Day (26 Dec 2024).

Costs of Housing/Feeding

2019 : £0.5bn
2023 : £5.1bn (+966% in 5yrs)
5-yr TOTAL : £14.4bn

The cost of housing and feeding migrants entering the UK has grown massively

In the five years from 2019, the costs associated purely with housing and feeding illegal migrants has soared by TEN TIMES from £0.5bn to £5.1bn. The situation has become so bad that the Government has been raiding the international aid budget to cope with it. As the House of Commons researchers say :-

“Under international aid rules, many of the costs of hosting refugees can count towards the aid budget for the first 12 months refugees are in the UK. This includes basic subsistence costs, such as food and accommodation.”
“A growing amount of UK aid has been spent on UK-based refugees... Other aid, such as on scholarships and administration, is also spent in the UK."
- House of Commons Library Research, Dec 2024

The table below shows the rapid rise in the amount we are spending on this. The numbers do not of course all the other costs, including Border Force, security and vetting, etc.

2019 : £0.5bn
2020 : £0.6bn
2021 : £3.8bn
2022 : £4.4bn
2023 : £5.1bn
5-year TOTAL : £14.4bn

In 2024 it is expected to cost in excess of £6bn to house and feed illegal migrants.

Illegal boat migrants in 2024 - Sunak compared to Starmer

Looking at the 2nd half of 2024 (under Starmer) compared to the 2nd half of 2023 (under Sunak), far from 'stopping the boats, the numbers are over 5,000 more for the directly comparable periods in 2023 and 2024.

It should also be remembered that Sir Keir Starmer's first act in government was to withdraw from the Rwanda deal. This may not have been perfect but it was at least acting as a deterrent. We know this from the numbers in the UK who decided to leave the mainland UK to head for Northern Ireland and who then crossed the border into the Republic, causing riots there. The migrants did this because they were worried about being deported to Rwanda.

Observations

These two sets of products cover two topics of great and growing interest to the general public - in particular that of immigration. Only a few years ago much of the mainstream media were uncomfortable reporting on immigration. Now they have been forced to do so by public demand – and by the sheer and growing scale of the problem.

There is nothing racist in the growing alarm amongst the public. Much of it relates to issues of societal cohesion, the stretch on public services, the depressing effect on wages, the shortage of public housing, the costs of temporary accommodation for illegal migrants, and of course the security threats, amongst other things.

As ever, we focus on quantifying the facts from the official bodies to inform the public debate. We hope that our new ‘Immigration Dashboard and Tracker’ will be the definitive source referred to by the media, politicians and by the public on social media. (To the media: In future, an advance copy can be made available to you a couple of days before publication, giving you an exclusive. Please contact us here to discuss a commercial arrangement.)

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We’re funded by donations from you – the public

The content :-

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Based on official data, statements and reports, analysed by us
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[ Sources: Home Office | DWP | ONS HoCL | HMRC ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Fri 03 Jan 2025

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Reader Comments 13

1. LuxuryBalloon , Friday, January 03, 2025, 08:15:

Between 5 July and 7 December 2024, a total of 13,460 returns of illegal immigrants to their home countries were recorded. The number of enforced returns from the UK rose by 25% compared with the same period in 2023.
Maybe this can be added to the dashboard?

2. Old Albion , Friday, January 03, 2025, 09:26:

"smash the gangs" comedy gold.

3. Parky , Friday, January 03, 2025, 09:49:

I'd like to try and clear up some terminology.
As I understand it:
Migrant - can be temporary
Immigrant - permanent, allowed to stay
Illegal immigrant - someone who stays without permission
Asylum seeker - awaiting processing, claiming to flee war/persecution
Refugee - has been processed and allowed to stay, assessed as fleeing war/persecution.
In this article the house of commons researchers refer to refugees.
Various terms are used in the article and the wider debate in general, I'm never sure exactly who we are talking about. Maybe someone creative should come up with a new word for the young men that game the system for financial gain or criminal intent.

4. LuxuryBalloon , Friday, January 03, 2025, 09:54:

When the previous government was in power, Facts4EU used to call the dinghy people ‘Macron’s boat migrants’.

5. Gazzablack , Friday, January 03, 2025, 10:01:

1, LB
.
None of whom crossed the channelI in a dinghy.
They were for mostly visa overstayers

6. terence patrick hewett , Friday, January 03, 2025, 10:52:

The only gang that Starmer is smashing, is his own gang of anti-British kamikaze warriors.

7. NH , Friday, January 03, 2025, 11:12:

1. LB
As far as I am aware all of the return agreements were signed by the conservative party and two of these Vietnam (Apr 2024) and Bangladesh (May 2024) were close to the election date so any returns would not show up in 2023 figures. It's difficult to be sure with the information available but it seems that they Labour Party were simply benefitting from these agreements.
.
The sad fact is the Conservative Party are the official opposition party but Elon Musk seems to be doing a much better job of highlighting the Labour party's incompetence, bias and corruption and holding the Labour Party to account.

8. Harry Potter , Friday, January 03, 2025, 11:39:

LuxuryBalloon: Unfortunately, none of those individuals are what you refer to as "Dinghy people." These are people who initially came to the UK on visas, but their visas have since expired. Many find work in restaurants and hotels, often being paid cash in hand. Some have been living here for years before they are caught in border force raids targeting such establishments. Deporting these individuals is much easier since they are already in the system. For example, shortly after Starmer and Labour won the General Election, they deported around 300 Brazilians who had overstayed their visas. Don’t be misled into thinking these are the so-called "Dinghy people." The Tories were also conducting similar deportations during their time in government.

9. Sparky , Sunday, January 05, 2025, 07:16:

Good piece in the Independent "The Damning Statistics that Reveal the True Cost of Brexit, five years on" looking back key statistics for the UK since January 2020.
.
Anyone wanting to buy a new Apple phone with a lighting charger such as iPhone 14. You won't be able to soon, why, because the EU have decided that all new mobile phones should use the same USB C charger. Sensible decision in my view but a decision that the EU has taken that will change your choices. BRINO.

10. Ashley Great Britain , Sunday, January 05, 2025, 08:11:

9 sparky.
-
You sound like your a bit annoyed that the EU are changing things against people's wishes, and that Brexit hasn't fully happened yet. Well, join the club.

13 comments, page 1 of 2

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