Economic growth – It’s better than the BBC and the Bank of England are telling you

UK economy slows but still grew faster (1%) in real terms in last 12 months than EU average

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

Facts4EU.Org looks at the official raw data, revealing the news is better than you’re being told

Last Friday (15 Nov 2024) the Office for National Statistics released its figures for the economy in relation to the third quarter of 2024: July, August and September. These showed a 1.0% increase in real terms compared to the same quarter a year ago.

In absolute terms (‘current prices’), the economy grew by 3.4% on the same quarter in 2023.

Instead of reporting this, the BBC chose in its headlines to focus on short-term movements, which have proved to be unreliable and which are frequently corrected in an upwards direction. The Brexit Facts4EU.Org think tank has delved into the raw data to bring readers a different - and more responsible - perspective, looking back over the last year.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

1. GDP in absolute terms (‘current prices’)

Q3 2023 : £685.2 bn
Q4 2023 : £677.2 bn
Q1 2024 : £688.1 bn
Q2 2024 : £702.9 bn
Q3 2024 : £708.8 bn

Increase in Q3 2024 GDP (current prices) compared to same period a year ago : 3.4%

[Source : Office for National Statistics, 15 Nov 2024.]

Despite the above, here is how the BBC reported it

Technically the details in the BBC's report are correct but once again it fails to present the bigger picture. It focuses on the 0.1% increase in real GDP over the last quarter. It therefore places the UK fifth in the G7 international league table. What it does not do is to show the growth in real GDP since the same quarter a year ago.

Monthly and quarterly GDP results are notoriously unreliable and are always revised by the Office of National Statistics. Instead of looking at the change based on the last quarter, below we are showing the international league table of the G7 over the last 12 months. This shows an increase in real GDP of 1% - 10 times the growth rate suggested by the BBC's headline - and puts the UK in third place, not fifth.

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International comparisons – UK is 3rd and beats EU27 average

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

% change in real GDP on a year ago – G7 countries and the EU27 average

USA : 2.7%
France : 1.3%
UK : 1.0%
EU27 avg : 0.9%
Italy : 0.4%
Japan : 0.2%
Germany : -0.2%
Canada : Yet to report

[Source : Office for National Statistics, 15 Nov 2024.]

Increase in Q3 2024 real GDP compared to same period a year ago : +1.0%

Here is how the ONS summarised Friday’s results

"UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024, following growth of 0.5% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024.
"GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.0% in Quarter 3 2024, compared with the same quarter a year ago.
"Within the output approach to measuring GDP, the services sector grew by 0.1% on the quarter; the construction sector grew by 0.8%, while the production sector fell by 0.2%.
"Within the expenditure approach to measuring GDP, there was an increase in net trade, household spending, business investment, and government consumption in expenditure terms in the latest quarter.
"Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.8% in Quarter 3 2024, mainly driven by increases in compensation of employees and other income.
"Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 3 2024, and is flat, compared with the same quarter a year ago."

Observations

The latest growth figures from the ONS are certainly not any cause for celebration. That said, the UK's economy still grew faster in real terms than the EU27 average over the past 12 months, and significantly faster than Germany, which has slumped.

With the new Government continually talking down the country's economic prospects, and with the BBC seemingly delighting in reporting any bad news, the Facts4EU.Org team thought it might be helpful to present a more balanced picture, based on a more realistic period: the last 12 months rather than comparing the latest quarter to the preceding one.

It is of course perfectly reasonable to report on the latest developments in the economy. We would simply prefer that this be tempered with the longer-term picture and that it be put into perspective: "UK economy slows but still grew faster (1%) in real terms in last 12 months than EU average."

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[ Sources: ONS | EU Commission | House of Commons Library | OECD | IMF ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Thurs 21 Nov 2024

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Reader Comments 6

1. Have You Wondered , Thursday, November 21, 2024, 08:52:

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I tend to forget all the statistics and prophecies that are manipulated, I prefer the reality on the ground.
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In support of this article, here is a snippet from todays news, the actuality that repeats itself almost daily - the economic reality in the sunlit uplands of the EU - and all because of Brexit?
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"......some countries are frustrated about Brussels’ glacial pace of inking fresh trade deals. "
.
"....European Central Bank (No less!) warned on Wednesday......“Elevated debt levels and high budget deficits, coupled with weak long-term growth- potential and policy uncertainty, increase the risk that fiscal slippage will reignite market concerns over sovereign debt sustainability,” the Bank said in a semi-annual Financial Stability Review. "
.

2. Have You Wondered , Thursday, November 21, 2024, 09:35:

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No wonder the EU are in economic trouble. "Under the new rules floated by the Commission president, countries would have to implement key economic reforms in exchange for access to their share of EU funding."
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So - work this out - nations are obliged to pay into the EU coffers, suffer the sclerotic trade deals and then have to sing and dance to the tune of Berlaymont ‘cash-for-reform’ dictats to get it back? And now attacking the foundations of trade and prosperity "EU FUNDS FREEZE BITES HUNGARIAN UNIVERSITIES."
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All this - less admin costs, off the books and other expenses, suffering with democratic opacity like the Covid texts debacle.....all seems contrary to the alleged EU tenet of 'trading apples and pears for peace'. Would you want them to run an economy?
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Why would any nation want to join or rejoin this circus (or the Strasburg circus?)
.

3. Sparky , Thursday, November 21, 2024, 10:48:

Headline of this piece is 3.4% growth in GDP which is then hidden with the teams real and current prices. When taking inflation into account GDP is 1.0%, yes it’s growth, slow, still growth but a significant difference to the 3.4% headlines, only fractionally above EU and behind France.

4. LuxuryBalloon , Thursday, November 21, 2024, 12:19:

Can’t see Adam Hiley’s social uprising against Starmer happening as this article shows Brexit Britain is booming.

5. Andy , Thursday, November 21, 2024, 16:11:

Just to add a bit of perspective. Where I live in Greece our economy is dominated by tourism. It has been a disastrous year with a slump in numbers and cash spent. It is approximately 25% down on last year. Not only did we have a reduction on staying visitors, as there was spare capacity evenin late July and August, but there was also a notable reduction in the number of cruise ships and the size of ships which visited. On Assumption Day (15th August) last year there were 5 ships which overlapped acoss the day: this year not one.

6. Adam Hiley , Friday, November 22, 2024, 17:34:

We should be thriving but We are stuck with this Government and economic illiterate Chancellor I hope the next administration will be the SDP or Reform the LabCon Uni party has had its day

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