It takes months or even years to form EU national coalition governments and they frequently fall apart

How do UK elections and voters compare with their EU counterparts? – Part III of our election special

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2024

EU27’s average turnout for their last national parliamentary elections : 7.5% higher than UK’s

In Part I of this Facts4EU.Org series on parliamentary democracy, we reported that the 2024 UK general election had the second-lowest voter turnout in 100 years. In Part III today we compare this to the EU27 countries, who have a significantly higher voter engagement than in the UK.

A Brexit Facts4EU.Org Series

Part I – Is Keir Starmer’s Government the most unrepresentative since women got the vote?
Part II - “What democratic legitimacy does Keir Starmer really have?”
Part III – this report - It takes months or even years to form EU national coalition governments and they frequently fall apart
Part IV – Do we ever know what we’re voting for? Politicians: Long-held views, reversed to win votes, then back to ‘business as usual’ when in power?

We also look at three examples from major EU countries where proportional representation (PR) has only made forming a government and keeping it going a tortuous process. In the process, the voters in the EU rarely seem to end up with the leaders and governments they want.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Voter turnout at general elections - EU27 and UK

UK 2024 : 59.7%
EU27 avg : 2019-2023 : 67.2%

Belgium : 88.4%
Luxembourg : 87.2%
Malta : 85.6%
Sweden : 84.2%
Denmark : 84.2%
Netherlands : 77.7%
Germany : 76.6%
Poland : 74.4%
France : 73.7%
Cyprus : 72.5%
Slovenia : 71.0%
Czechia : 70.3%
Hungary : 69.6%
Slovakia : 68.5%

Finland : 68.5%
Spain : 66.6%
Austria : 65.2%
Italy : 63.8%
Estonia : 63.5%
Ireland : 62.8%
Greece : 61.1%
United Kingdom : 59.7%
Latvia : 59.4%
Portugal : 58.0%
Croatia : 55.2%
Lithuania : 47.8%
Bulgaria : 39.1%
Romania : 31.8%

[Sources : OWID / House of Commons Library / OECD.]

As usual with the EU, there is a large variation in the percentages for voter turnout from country to country. The highest turnout was in the EU Commission’s home country of Belgium (88.4%). Voting is compulsory in Belgium. The lowest was in Romania (31.8%).

Compulsory voting

Voting is compulsory in only four EU member countries – Belgium, Bulgaria, Luxembourg, and Greece – where the legal obligation to vote applies to both nationals and registered non-national EU citizens.

In Greece voting is not compulsory for voters over the age of 70 or for voters who are over 200 km from their nearest polling station on election day. All we can say is that there can’t be many local polling stations in Greece, as Greek turnout at the election last year was 61% - only marginally better than the UK’s where voting is discretionary.

Proportional Representation (PR) versus First-Past-The-Post (FPTP)

All EU27 countries use one or other type of proportional representation (PR) systems to elect their MPs. Some of these would require a degree in political science to understand them fully – and their implications for the results under different scenarios. It would be fair to say that not many ordinary voters understand the intricacies.

In some cases (eg France) the electorate is asked to vote twice, a week apart, and the rules change between these two votes. It goes far beyond the scope of these summary reports to elaborate further.

In the UK life is simpler. Generally the FPTP system produces an overnight winner, as it did in the 2024 election. The last example of a coalition government having to be formed was the infamous Con-LibDem coalition following the 2010 election, with David Cameron becoming Prime Minister and Nick Clegg, leader of the minority LibDems partner, becoming Deputy PM. This did not go well for Nick Clegg or his party. They were decimated in the 2015 election, with Clegg losing his own seat and having to resign as Leader.

Three examples of the problems caused by proportional representation voting systems in the EU

1. Ungovernable France – PR has not solved its problems, it has made them worse

The French people voted at around the same time as the British, on 30 June and 7 July.

Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally party comfortably won in both rounds of the elections. She had to be opposed by coalitions of parties working together to try to defeat her. In some cases the members of these coalitions looked highly unlikely to be able to work together in any government they formed.

The breakdowns of these electoral coalitions into the constituent parties reveals that - when looking at votes and seats for each individual party - Marine Le Pen stormed to victory. We will be reporting on this in due course.

Is Le Pen now French Prime Minister? No, and nor does she have any chance of this happening. The reasons are two-fold. Firstly she was up against coalitions of parties. In some cases the individual member parties of these coalitions look highly unlikely to be able to work together in government. Secondly, even with a form of proportional representation, Le Pen’s party came third in the tally of the number of seats won, even though she had a higher vote share than either of the No.1 or No.2 coalitions.

It is now almost seven weeks since the French people voted. They still do not have a new prime minister or government, and nor is there a reasonable prospect of this happening any time soon.

2. Germany – PR has given the country a Chancellor whom the Germans don’t want

Germany is led by its Chancellor (roughly, Prime Minister), the socialist Olaf Scholz. His party won only 26% of the vote in their general election of 2021 and he was forced to form a coalition government with the Greens and the neo-conservative Free Democrats. Since then his popularity has dropped significantly to around 15%.

In short, PR has given Germany a Chancellor whom the vast majority of its people don’t want.

Currently Scholz is fighting to keep his coalition government alive – again. The arguments are on fundamentals such as the budget, Net Zero, the health service, dealing with the cost of living, defence, and immigration.

3. Netherlands & PR : A year between one coalition government falling and a new one being agreed

The Dutch coalition government of Mark Rutte collapsed last year (July 2023) due to coalition party disagreements, forcing a new general election. This was comfortably won by right-wing Geert Wilders and his anti-immigration and eurosceptic Party for Freedom.

Wilders easily beat the second-placed europhile party of Frans Timmermans, who had resigned as EU Commission Vice President in order to fight the Dutch elections.

It then took nearly seven-and-a-half months of coalition negotiations before a new government was formed, only last month (July 2024).

Is Geert Wilders now Dutch Prime Minister? No, of course not.

(An unelected civil servant has been made PM, as he was the only one the parties could agree on.)

Observations

PR produces long delays after elections, fractious coalitions, frequent breakdowns, and difficult governance

As a result of the PR voting system in EU countries and the plethora of smaller parties having some MPs, it can often take many months before a coalition government can be formed. The people do not even know who will be their prime minister. In some cases, e.g. the Netherlands this year, the leader of the most popular party (Geert Wilders) could not become prime minister because his minority coalition partners would not accept this.

When coalitions are eventually formed, they are frequently fractious. Smaller coalition partners in particular have a tendency to quit these types of government. This even happens during the many months it takes to form the coalition.

It is difficult to see the benefits of having a PR system as opposed to first-past-the-post, as in the United Kingdom.

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[ Sources: OWID | House of Commons Library | OECD ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Fri 23 Aug 2024

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Reader Comments 14

1. Sparky , Friday, August 23, 2024, 06:12:

Interesting analysis. Another imperfect system. FPTP looks better.

2. Have You Wondered. , Friday, August 23, 2024, 06:52:

.
So what's the answer?
.
Obviously, some voters do not count in UK democracy.
This 2024 election proves the fundamentally undemocratic voting system.
9m votes for Labour 411 seats
4m votes for Reform 5 seats.
.
How can that be democratic?
.
Maybe - votes in the constituency elect the candidate but the total votes for each of the party are added nationally to determine the party with the most votes and consequently the governing party who then convene to determine the Cabinet and leader?
.
That way - each vote counts to achieve and respect the local wishes and a majority of party votes then determine the National Govt.?
.

3. Andy , Friday, August 23, 2024, 11:02:

There is, alas, no perfect system of election. It's a disgrace that Labour got 411 seats with so small a vote, and that Reform - who polled more votes than the LibDems - gained so few seats with so many votes.
Our system has evolved: it is the King's Government but now the convention is whomever forms that Government must command a majority in the Commons. If you bring in PR this will inevitably mean coalition Governments, which usually means the smaller party is able to 'wag the dog' as we clearly saw in 2010 when the LibDems wielded power out of all proportion to their vote share and were able to prevent policies being implemented that had greater support amongst the electorate, whilst at the same time insisting on policies which lacked support amongst the public. This is the curse of PR. It really means that the political class can do what they like as the electorate are basically powerless to prevent it. It also enables the permanent bureaucracy which is increasingly a huge problem.
If you have PR then you have coalitions, but who would facilitate their formation ? The only person who could do that would be His Majesty the King, through the Privy Council, but would everyone be content with such a system ?

4. LuxuryBalloons , Friday, August 23, 2024, 12:46:

People are not so much switched off by our election voting system … people are switching off as Brexit has delivered very little to them. For many people sticking up two fingers to the political elite through the 2016 referendum was a highlight. But Brexit has not delivered regarding reduction of immigrants, protection of British workers against globalisation, improvement of the NHS, increasing foreign investment in the British economy, improving state education or Making Britain Great Again.
Not everyone who voted for Brexit is excited about the new underwhelming trade deals, the blue passports or the crown mark on pint glasses. Not everyone who voted for Brexit is excited that Project Fear did not materialise.

5. terence patrick hewett , Friday, August 23, 2024, 13:47:

@LB
Brexit doesn't deliver anything: it's a political policy. It is politicians who fail to deliver: as the Tory Party found to its cost. And as the Labour Party are about to find out to their cost.

6. Llwyd , Friday, August 23, 2024, 15:57:

Luxury Balloon 4. And it would appear that not everybody understands Brexit

7. LuxuryBalloon , Friday, August 23, 2024, 20:23:

6 Llwyd … and when you say that you just sound like one of those political elite who were running our country prior to the 2016 referendum.

8. David , Friday, August 23, 2024, 22:15:

First Past the Post is undoubtedly simpler to understand and usually produces a government that
does not need to form a coalition.
There are exceptions of course - the most notable of recent times being the Tory/LibDem coalition of 2010 to 2015.
FPTP can of course produce very unfair results. The last election presented a very good example
when Reform Uk got only 5 seats from 4 million votes, whilst the LibDems got 72 seats with half a million
fewer votes.
However, despite this obvious unfairness, I think our FPTP system is better on balance as it is simpler
and rarely leads to unstable coalitions.

9. Gazzablack , Saturday, August 24, 2024, 00:00:

With PR, governments are formed by a series of horse trading rather than by mandate.
Participants quickly fall out and the government's collapse.
Resulting elections deliver big changes in vote share for each party
Whereupon the horse trading takes place again, resulting in the exact same government irrespective of the vote.
.
Then:
Rinse and repeat.
.
.
Closer to home
Within a month 'Captain Hindsight' has transitioned into 'Major Disaster'
.
.
Off topic
Reported by Visigrad24
4 out of 10 German manufacturers are considering moving their business abroad, or limiting production in Germany due to high energy costs and crippling bureaucracy.

10. Sparky , Saturday, August 24, 2024, 15:05:

9 G Off topic
.
Ministers are preparing advice to tavellers through Dover on how to cope with 15 hour delays when new the new entry/exit system is introduced.
.
UK holidaymakers to Europe will have to pay for ETIAS authorisation.
.
UK holiday makers will be receive additional charges when using mobile phones in Europe on some networks.
.
A pet food business in Suffolk, Nestle Purina, will no longer supply to Northern Ireland due to Brexit
.
The number of overseas applications for health and social care visas has fallen by 80% due to tighter restrictions causing a shortage of workers in the industry.
.
Loads more available on Davis Downside Dossier

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