The EU can add Ukraine and 5 more candidate countries and yet still be smaller than when the UK was in it

An exclusive Facts4EU.Org analysis shows how the EU plans to become poorer

Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2022

Adding six countries, EU will still have fewer people and less GDP than when UK was member

As predicted by Facts4EU.Org last Sunday, the EU Commission officially announced yesterday (17 June 2022) that it was proposing Ukraine to be a “candidate country” to join the EU, along with Moldova. Georgia will follow provided it makes some changes.

Once rubber stamped by the EU Council - which it will be - this will take the number of official candidate countries to seven. The other five are Turkey, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania, and Serbia. As previously reported, Turkey has been a candidate country since 1999 and there is no current prospect of it joining so we have discounted Turkey in this analysis.

What would be the effect on the EU if Ukraine and Moldova were admitted?

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The effects on the EU if six of the seven candidate countries (excl. Turkey) were to join

EU27 population : 447,007,596
EU33 population : 502,890,418 (+12.5%)
EU27 GDP : $17,094.2bn
EU33 GDP : $17,407.2bn (+1.8%)

How does the “EU33” compare to the EU27 plus the UK, if it rejoined?

In order to give some sense of proportion, Facts4EU.Org compared the “EU33” with what the “EU28” would look like today, i.e. if the UK were to rejoin before any candidate countries became members.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The EU with the UK compared to the EU with six candidate countries

EU33 population : 502,890,418 (with six candidate countries added)
EU28 population : 514,088,830 (i.e. with the UK as a member, no candidate countries added)
The EU’s population would be 2.2% bigger with the UK than with the six candidate countries
EU33 GDP : $17,407.2bn (with six candidate countries added)
EU28 GDP : $20,281.8bn (i.e. with the UK as a member, no candidate countries added)
The EU’s GDP would be 16.5% bigger with the UK than with the six candidate countries
Per capita, the EU’s output would be smaller by 12.3% with the candidate countries than with the UK

The ‘EU33’ will still be smaller than the EU28, when the UK was a member

Our analysis clearly shows that the EU can add as many small and relatively impoverished nations as it wants, but it will still be smaller than with the United Kingdom as a member. This is true of total population, total GDP, and GDP per person.

In short the EU wants to increase the land mass of its empire, further threatening Putin’s Russia, and knows it will become poorer as a result.

The EU gets dressed up in yellow and blue, but it won’t wash

Yesterday saw the bizarre sight of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen dressed in a bright yellow suit with a bright blue blouse, making a public announcement.

As so often, the statement was written in ‘EU-Speak’ – equivocal and designed to sound as if the EU is doing something. Whilst the recommendation for Ukraine to become a candidate country seems certain (but still subject to conditions), the citizens of Moldova and most certainly Georgia will be left bewildered. We invite readers to read the statement for themselves.

Observations

Yesterday, while UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was in Kjiv talking to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy about further UK military support, the EU Commission’s President was making a flamboyant statement in Brussels about growing its empire.

Certainly President Zelenskyy was in no doubt who his true friends are, tweeting:

“Many days of this war have proved that Great Britain's support for Ukraine is firm and resolute. Glad to see our country's great friend Boris Johnson in Kyiv again.”

We use the word ‘flamboyant’ about the EU Commission President's statement not for its content, which was obscure to say the least, but because of its presentation. Perhaps the EU apparatchiks thought that Frau von der Leyen’s new outfit would distract from the EU’s poor performance in supporting Ukraine, compared to that of the United Kingdom.

Our report shows that the EU's desperate attempts at a "UK replacement therapy" will leave it worse off. Bigger in land mass, certainly, but poorer overall. For those looking for the benefits of Brexit, this is yet another one for the records.

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[ Sources: World Bank | UN | IMF | President Zelenskyy's office | No.10 | EU Commission ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 18 June 2022

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Reader Comments 16

11. jon livesey , Saturday, June 18, 2022, 23:41:

10. Tim B. I don't think I do have a very different view of the EU to most people here. I have posted many times that I think they are currently acting in bad faith. But I have also posted many times that my - or anyone else's - opinion is less important than facts.
It is a fact that trade and political integration are different things. We don't have to be EU members to trade with the EU. Indeed, that is one of the bases for Brexit. But the flip side of that is that we can leave the EU without permanently handicapping our trade with them. We can leave the EU and then treat them as an export market, without bothering too much about our opinion of them, just a we can with any export market.
And where trade is concerned, Free Trade Agreement are useful things. Trading without tariffs is preferable to trading with tariffs. It would be odd to want an FTA with Australia but not with the EU, or at least it would call for some explanation.
All trading on WTO terms gets you is tariffs. It does not allow you to export goods and services to the EU that do not meet EU standards, for example. It just means that they levy tariffs on our exports and we levy tariffs on imports from them.
That said, the threat to abandon the FTA and break connections with EU institutions is a realistic threat, because tariffs tend to reduce overall trade, and the EU runs a trade surplus with us, so a reduction in trade costs them more. And we should put that threat into action when we decide that the EU is beyond negotiation, which it isn't yet.

12. Jigsaw Puzzle , Monday, June 20, 2022, 10:35:

3. John Hardman
Clearly, jigsaw puzzles belong in the list of things you're not good at, along with seeing the bendy-bananas from the trees.
This has nothing to do with the EU being right or the UK being in the EU.
That horse bolted at dawn while you were still in bed.
The EU now has a clear, realiseable path to ensure it's survival;
it no longer requires or desires UK membership or agreement - only compliance to our obligations as a signatory of an international treaty.
You may see Brexit as a happy exit, to them this may too be a serendipitous removal of a thorn in it's side:
- an army is all but agreed, which the UK would have vetoed.
-dissenting members have all but forgotten their own exits
- expansion of membership is resuming, again, something you think little of, although one candidate state has one of the largest gas reserves
With the only potential barrier to it's plans having voluntarily opted to step out of the way,
simultaneously weaked it's own economy by imposing sanctions on itself, lowered it's own diplomatic status & conceded land in the process.
Brexit is not going swimmingly, except for the happy fish.
That's not all, having done all that, the UK are stepping, with no plan yet again,
into the problems that come with having a formidable adversary next door,
one which will no doubt seek parity or to eclipse us economically & militarily. Survival tends to stir such feelings.
I was going to suggest a book for you - if you like tragedies,
but it is still being written, "How to make enemies out of friends" - by Brexiters

13. Jigsaw Puzzle , Monday, June 20, 2022, 11:11:

4. Adam
Ukraine will be re-built as an energy & food storehouse for EU members - however long it takes.
Hint, the EU will be around to pop champagne corks on that day.
It may also have a potential future border with Russia, so you can guess that the USA will prop up the EU in any
way it can without directly engaging Russia. Ala, the 52nd state, after Israel.
Such a move suits the USA as they can turn their eye elsewhere in Asia & leave Europe to it's own problems.
The Tories simply ceased upon the "Opportunity which is Brexit", which you & others voluntarily handed to them.
The reason why there are no Brexit Opportunities is because the only opportunity in Brexit has been ceased.
Your dog's dinner is someone else's trough. They're feasting while you fast & have a long way to go before you realise that "the milk is gone."
Now that they have what they sought, all you're left with the bitterness of one who has been used, once again.
One would mistakenly think you'd have all had an epiphany by now - or listened to even one warning that this might happen.
You can't even admit any of it, so expect more of it - at least until the lesson is learnt.

14. Jigsaw Puzzle , Monday, June 20, 2022, 11:49:

5. jon,
Having an antiquated world view that can only be summed up as " the sun never sets on the empire", - you might see it that way.
Times have changed since then, the world is smaller & inextricably interwoven - the Ukrainian border is just 9 hours away by public road
& anyone can access the internet on a phone. Countries are reducing tariffs by signing agreements - while we gleefully abandon them.
The Butterfly Effect, if it were ever in doubt, is being demonstrated very clearly for all to see after Brexit,
the pandemic, shortages, inflation & the new war - except for Brexiters who see something else entirely, though they will not say what.
But we must take it on trust that they absolutely know what they're doing, disregarding the fact they didn't
demonstrate that ability when given the chance to in high school.
Throughout Brexit up until today, we've heard talks about plans but failed to see any materialise.
We still have no in-depth explaination of what those plans actually are - besides "get it done" & a lot about foreigners.
A mission which by it's methods, mean it will never accomplish it's ever shifting goals.

15. Jigsaw Puzzle , Monday, June 20, 2022, 11:54:

7.
When the lion sleeps, the jungle thinks not to wake him.
Sleep on brave lion, sleep on.

16. Jigsaw Puzzle , Monday, June 20, 2022, 12:08:

8.
Acting from a compromised position was the plan.
Who can blame you entirely if no one could have made it work anyway.
If anyhing, your supporters will heap praise on you for at least trying.
They all knew what signing meant - everyone else did & warned them.
Brexiters sold out the UK - who bit it hook, line & sinker - not just the fishermen.
The best way to cover up a loss, according to Brexiters, is to pretend there was no loss at all.
Admitting to, holding those responsible to account or repairing the damage doneis just too embarrassing it seems.
By threatening to break the agreement we signed, the EU treated us a potential defaulter & the world seemed to agree.
A lot of goodwill, like helping Ukraine, needs to be done before the worldwide consensus is that we're a trusted partner.
Given our history & currrent leadership - the odds are stacked against us.

16 comments, page 2 of 2

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