Prime Minister, we’re now less than half as likely to die of Covid than of ’flu
Our chance of dying from Covid is now less than 0.024% - why aren’t we free?
© Facts4EU.Org 2021
Facts4EU.Org puts the Covid ‘crisis’ into perspective and asks difficult questions
A Sunday Facts4EU.Org view on where we are now
Naturally every death is tragic for the loved ones of the person involved, no matter the cause. Members of the Facts4EU.Org team have lost loved ones recently. However this should not prevent examinations of the facts, to inform public debate.
The Covid pandemic is over in the UK
Last week Sarah Walker OBE, Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the University of Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Medicine, and Chief Investigator on the Covid-19 Infection Survey for the Office for National Statistics, said:
“We’ve moved from a pandemic to an endemic situation.”
ONS Chief Investigator, Covid Infection Survey, Prof Sarah Walker OBE, Apr 2021
According to this official source the virus is circulating at a low, controllable level in the community. Whilst all government scientists are cautious about saying anything definitive, the official line is essentially that the pandemic is over.
In this report Facts4EU.Org looks at the current state of the ‘Covid crisis’ in terms of overall numbers, and we analyse where Covid now sits from the perspective of previous years.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
Below we show some examples of the number of deaths from ‘flu and pneumonia
(Official figures from the ONS for England and Wales)
- 1976: 62,357 (the year of the ‘long, hot summer’)
- 1995: 55,828
- 2000: 56,623
- 2020 deaths ‘involving’ (but not necessarily ‘due to’) Covid: 80,830
- Total of all ’flu and influenza deaths in the 20 years from 2000-2019: 600,879
- Total deaths from all causes in England and Wales in the 20 years from 2000-2019 : 10,324,754
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org - click to enlarge
Next we show these deaths as a percentage of the population, with the very latest Covid numbers annualised, for comparison
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org - click to enlarge
- Current rate of deaths due to Covid (latest ONS figures): 0.024%
- This is extrapolated from the figures for week 15. This number has been tumbling for weeks.
This is less than half the average rate of deaths, as a percentage of the population, from ’flu and influenza in the last 20 years
In fact for most people the figures are much better
To make things simple, in our analysis above we looked at 'flu/pneumonia deaths and deaths 'involving Covid' in terms of the total population of England and Wales. In reality, because the vast majority of deaths have occured in the very elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions, the chances for most people of dying 'involving Covid' are now infinitessimally small.
Let’s talk about dying
Traditionally the subject of dying has always been an uncomfortable one for most people. It is certainly the case that the public seem to have been unaware that on an average day in 2019, pre-Covid, 1,454 people died (from all causes) in England and Wales. In annual terms, that’s more than half a million deaths in the year.
Listening to the BBC, it sometimes seems as though they didn’t think anyone died before Covid.
Vast numbers die of dementia, cancer, and heart disease – the top three killers – each year, and yet the amount of public money spent on combatting these conditions is a tiny fraction of what has been spent on Covid.
The counter argument is that if radical action had not been taken by the Government, Covid would have run rampant and would have killed many hundreds of thousands of people, instead of the 80,830 who died in 2020 with Covid being mentioned on their death certificate. (This is of course not the same as ‘dying from Covid’.)
The problem with this argument is the evidence now available from the countries and US states that did not lock down, or which employed only light or limited measures.
There’s no doubt that Covid-19 has been a vicious killer
For the avoidance of doubt, no-one on the Facts4EU.Org team knows anyone who is a ‘Covid denier’. There was a significant increase in the number of deaths last year, compared to previous years, almost all of it affecting the elderly. The average age of death ‘with Covid’ was 82.
Nonetheless it is perfectly reasonable to look carefully at the data, and what it might be telling us. We did this for many years over Brexit and we have not been proved wrong.
In the case of Covid, we believe that any rational person would be hoping for a proportionate response to the threat. Putting aside all arguments about the previous responses by Government in the past year, the simple fact is that the threat from Covid is now negligible. It is most certainly far below any threshold which justifies the continuation of draconian Government diktats and the curtailment of the normal freedoms in any democratic society.
But what about variants? What about a third wave?
We could of course go on like this forever.
Already we are seeing new job adverts for ‘Covid Marshalls’ from local councils who plan to spend millions on totalitarian-style local wardens, ready to start work when the Covid restrictions are supposed to be lifted in June. Just what will they be doing to your traditional freedoms? And why on earth are they necessary in a free society? If anyone breaks any laws, we have a body called 'the police' who deal with things like that.
Is this remotely right? What kind of world do we want to live in?
At Facts4EU.Org we are very well aware that the majority of the British public fully support lockdowns and all the other measures which have changed our lives so dramatically. We are equally aware that many readers are not comfortable with our analyses.
All we can do is present the official data, as we have above, and suggest that there might now need to be some proportionality, so that we can all return to our normal (not ‘new normal’) lives.
Where would we be without you, our readers?
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[ Sources: Office for National Statistics ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sun 02 May 2021
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