Brexit Britain set to soar above the flailing Eurozone – this year and next
Facts4EU.Org contrasts what we were told in 2016 and the reality today
Montage Facts4EU.Org 2021
Pro-EU IMF has to upgrade the UK, in its official Economic Outlook 2021
On Tuesday (27 Jul 2021) the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook Update, putting the prospects for the UK higher than those of the Eurozone and of the EU’s three largest economies: Germany, France and Italy.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
The IMF has to upgrade its economic forecast for Brexit Britain - again
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org - click to enlarge
The IMF wasn’t always so bullish about the UK economy
This year and next, the IMF expects Brexit Britain’s economy to grow significantly faster than that of the Eurozone and the EU’s three largest economies. However, readers who have been with us since before the EU Referendum will know that “’Twasn’t always thus.”
On 01 June 2016, just three weeks before the British people were due to vote in the EU Referendum, the IMF helpfully produced a doom-laden document which was seized upon by the arch-Remainer government of David Cameron and George Osborne. In amongst all the forecasts, tables, and charts, the IMF summarised things as follows:-
“In staff’s view, increased uncertainty and risk aversion in the short and medium run would result in a material hit to incomes. The net long-run economic effects of leaving would also likely be negative and substantial, though there is significant uncertainty about the precise magnitude. Reduced trade access would likely lead to lower output and investment. Permanently lower incomes would be associated with reduced consumption. Pass-through from a weaker pound would result in higher prices for imported goods; depreciation would mitigate economic losses to the UK somewhat by stimulating net exports, but not enough to offset declines in other expenditure categories. Fiscal savings from reduced contributions to the EU budget would likely be outweighed by lower revenues from expected lower output, resulting in a net fiscal loss.”
- Selected Issues paper on the United Kingdom, IMF, 01 June 2016
The IMF’s special report ran to 65 densely-worded pages and contained a large number of complex charts and tables. The IMF described it as a “Selected Issues paper on the United Kingdom” as “background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country.” The government of the member country concerned was certainly delighted to receive it, as it fed nicely into the Project Fear narrative which by then was reaching epic proportions.
At the time, the Facts4EU.Org team characterised the overall message of the IMF report internally as “Vote Leave, be poorer, suffer forever”.
Anyone remember the OECD’s report on the EU’s Single Market, in the same month as the IMF report?
In the same month that the IMF produced their special paper on a potential Brexit, another international organisation published an important paper.
This other report was about the EU’s Single Market and it was produced by the pro-EU Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The OECD were highly critical of the Single Market, calling it “unfinished and stalled" after 25 years. In effect the report criticised the EU across the board for its poor implementation and for the EU’s failure to address all the fundamental flaws in it.
Facts4EU naturally published many detailed articles on the OECD report, but there was almost no coverage from the mainstream media. The UK government never mentioned it, despite its release just weeks before the EU Referendum. It must be remembered that this was at a time when David Cameron, George Osborne, and all the massed ranks of the Remainer Establishment were busy extolling the virtues and indeed the absolute necessity of the UK being in the Single Market.
Feeling good on a Friday
We hope that our chart above will make many readers feel positive this morning. If the pro-EU IMF, (whose former Chief Executive Mme Christine Lagarde is now the Head of the EU’s Central Bank), are putting the UK’s growth so much higher than the Eurozone’s, then things must be looking very rosy indeed.
Some people will no doubt take us to task for drumming up memories of the very different forecasts being fed to the British people just before they voted in the EU Referendum.
Our answer to this is simple. No-one that we can think of in any position of power or influence has ever apologised for misleading the public to such an egregious extent. If we say nothing, what does this say about accountability in public life? And how can they know the British people expect and deserve an apology?
Furthermore, we throw a question back: If Brexit Britain’s economy had plunged off a cliff-edge as predicted by the Remainer Establishment, would we not be hearing about it on a daily basis on the BBC’s news bulletins?
We all know the answer to that one.
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[ Sources: IMF | OECD | EU Commission ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Fri 30 Jul 2021
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