“Who needs a trade deal with the EU?” - A Brexit Facts4EU.Org report

Latest EU report shows EU trade deals overall are of little value

EU trade from its Free Trade Agreements barely increased last year, compared to global trade

In the EU Commission’s report published on 12 November, the EU claims that “The 4th Annual Report on the Implementation of the European Union's Trade Agreements in 2019 shows the benefits of our expanding global trade network.”

We look at the overall position, based on this latest EU Commission report.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

EU goods exports in 2019 - to FTA countries and to all countries globally

Growth in EU goods exports to all countries globally: 3.5%
Growth in EU goods exports to countries covered by ‘the 36 major preferential EU trade agreements’: 4.1%
Difference in growth between EU's trade deal countries and all countries globally: 0.6%
Growth in UK goods exports to all non-EU countries last year: +14.1%

Sources: EU Commission | UK Department for International Trade | UK Office for National Statistics

EU’s growth in exports is small compared to the UK

One of the jobs of the EU Commission, which has sole and exclusive responsibility for negotiating trade deals for the EU’s member countries, should be to grow exports. As an EU member the UK was prevented by the EU from negotiating its own trade deals and was forced to rely on the work of the Commission.

The EU Commission is careful to talk about ‘trade’, meaning imports and exports. When focusing in on exports, the position for the EU is even worse than its headline figures.

The EU's trade agreements make negligible difference to exports

The report talks about its “36 major preferential EU trade agreements” (FTAs) covering 65 countries – not the 100 it continuously boasts of having. Incredibly the report says that EU exports to these major FTA countries only grew by 0.6% more than the EU’s exports to all the countries around the world.

To put this into context, the UK’s goods exports to non-EU countries grew by 14.1% last year, as British exporters started looking globally instead of focusing on the EU27 markets.

What about trade in services, the UK’s area of strength?

Unfortunately, the EU’s performance with its FTA partners in the matter of services – which represent approximately 80% of the UK economy – was actually worse than its growth in services globally.

“For trade in services the latest figures are those for 2018. Trade in services with the 65 partners covered by this report grew by 1.7% in 2018, slower than total EU trade in services (+2.3%)”
- EU Commission report, 12 November 2020

Was a UK-EU trade deal mentioned in this latest report? No.

The UK is the EU27’s second-largest export market after the United States. It is 60% bigger than the third-largest market, China.

Despite this the EU’s report contains no mention of the possibility of a trade deal with the United Kingdom. It could be argued that the report relates to actual trade deals in place, but for there to be no mention of the EU’s second-largest export market is a little surprising.

Observations

As ever, the EU has singled out some examples of success in its report. Overall, however, the total figures are uninspiring to say the least.

For there to be only a 0.6% difference between export growth rates with FTA partners compared to the EU’s export growth rate globally shows how disappointing the EU Commission’s performance has been.

Furthermore, for the growth in the export of the EU's services to FTA partners to be significantly lower than the its growth in the export of services globally, just goes to show how the EU has paid scant regard to the UK’s key area of economic strength.

Canada and Japan deal templates not on offer to the UK

Interestingly, two of the trade deals which the EU singles out in its report are not available as templates for a deal with the UK.

The EU’s trade deals with Canada and Japan are regularly trumpeted by the EU Commission. If these deals are so wonderful, why isn’t the EU prepared to offer anything similar to the UK? Things become even stranger when considering the fact that the UK's Dept for International Trade has just agreed 'rollover deals' with both of these countries.

Close, but no cigar...

Earlier this year the EU suddenly came up with the bizarre notion of ‘geographical proximity’ to justify its refusal to agree a normal trade deal with the UK. This is despite the fact that the then EU Council President Donald Tusk held out the offer of a Canada-style deal when persuading the UK Government to sign up to the EU’s abominable Withdrawal Agreement.

As soon as the WA was signed by Boris Johnson on 24 January 2020, it seemed that a Canada-style trade deal was off the table. Apparently the EU had suddenly noticed that the UK was geographically close to the continent. Why that should then be a barrier to continuing the existing zero-tariff trading arrangements remains a mystery.

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The level of our donations has dropped significantly in the last month, probably partly due to the impact of the measures the Government has taken regarding COVID-19. These kind donations are currently at an unsustainably low level. We know that these are difficult times for many people but we have to ask any reader who can, to support us with a donation today so that we can continue our fight for a free, independent, and sovereign United Kingdom as we approach the end game. Quick, secure, and confidential donation methods are linked to below this article and you will receive a very warm email from a member of our team. Thank you so much.

[ Sources: EU Commission | UK Department for International Trade | UK Office for National Statistics ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Thur 26 Nov 2020

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Reader Comments 22

1. Sydney Ashurst , Wednesday, November 25, 2020, 08:57:

Whispers about a trade deal being concluded this week come from strange sources. JPMorgan has raised its odds of a Brexit trade deal to 80 percent, up from two-thirds, as negotiators from Britain and the European Union try to clinch an accord. With a week to go until the deadline to reach an agreement, Brexit talks are expected to go "down to the wire" this week as Brussels look set to compromise on Boris's Johnson's demands for fishing rights.
This of course would still leave 'level playing field' (not observed by EU members) and governance (ECJ).
The evidence you present above is that EU trade deals are of little benefit to the UK, so why continue talking.
Its pretty obvious the bickering between France and Germany over demanded fishing rights in UK waters continues.

2. Mahesh , Wednesday, November 25, 2020, 09:05:

Another small donation made to you folks.
Thanks for all the articles. They have been an inspiration for our fight for true independence from the tyrannical EU.

3. Soon 2 B Expat , Wednesday, November 25, 2020, 10:31:

Nothing here but a graph stating the obvious. Anyway, I won't donate purely out of principle. Besides, I still have to start afresh in the EU next year - will need every euro even though I won't be paying medical, school fees & day care. The house came at a good price, thanks to the Brexiteers that bought it then voted Brexit lol. At least this time I benefit from people voting against their own interests.

4. Stella , Wednesday, November 25, 2020, 10:45:

Soon 2 B Expat, so why are you obsessively reading this website then?? You are somewhat confused. Go and do your packing, you said you're on the way to Germany.
Auf Wiedersehen, pet!

5. One eyed king , Wednesday, November 25, 2020, 10:57:

The conservative party is about to have its humpty dumpty moment. And that shouldn't encourage labour as they already had theirs. It was always about democracy.
You were warned,

6. Sydney Ashurst , Wednesday, November 25, 2020, 11:39:

I thought Angela Merkel had brokered a deal (compromise) on continued fishing rights, but NO, von der Leyen in her strange English says not.
“It is when we negotiate hard, and then stick to the compromise found that we move forward fast,” she said in the European Parliament in Brussels.
“These are decisive days for negotiations with the United Kingdom. But, frankly, I cannot tell you today if in the end, there will be a deal,” she told MEPs, who must ratify the deal after it is backed by EU leaders.
She will not admit that it is the three Commission blockers that are holding up agreement.
On fisheries she said that the EU wanted a long-term, predictable agreement. British negotiators want annual negotiations over fishing stocks. (The arrangement between Norway and the EU). “No one questions the UK sovereignty in its own waters". But, she has just said the EU is.
French fishermen have compromised and accepted that a smaller quota is better than NO Quota at all with a NO DEAL.

7. Ashley Great Britain , Wednesday, November 25, 2020, 12:02:

3.soon 2 be expat.
Bon Voyage!

8. One eyed king , Wednesday, November 25, 2020, 14:35:

Seeing that its open season for turning a crisis out of a profit, i invented a machine that has a 100%success rate for detecting muff goblins. There are no symptoms but rrrrr dangerous. But only for very attractive women. Send 5 euros and pictures and i will have a good look.

9. Harry's son , Wednesday, November 25, 2020, 15:31:

The EU is constantly trying to pretend they've got something that they don't. Propaganda is their main activity. Bit like Rejoiners.

10. Diane , Wednesday, November 25, 2020, 15:32:

Aside from today's headlines concerning the EU/UK future exchanging ( or not ) of sausages & burgers ..... it's interesting to note various comments / discussion from the EU's meetings. I know there are those who do not wish to hear what's going on 'over there' as ' we've left ' and ask why should we be bothered, well, most are and we haven't ! There's a Dutch MEP suggesting the rule of law is used as a form of blackmail & asking how come certain actions by some are, and have been, seemingly ignored. A French MEP stating his opinion that ' Brussels ' is obsessed with punishment of recalcitrant states, citing persecution, blackmail, diktats by ' Brussels ' on policies, migration & the like. An Italian MEP citing dictatorship of majority. Rules effected in a political manner, punishment. Strong words it seems. Methods which are not working & questioning the kind of democracy being called for & supporting the rights of individual states to apply policies which fit individual countries' interests. A claim of being anti historic also and a suggestion that the EU should do fewer things and do them properly. I think many can identify with all of that and the total overreach we've seen & rejected. A Spanish MEP was not quite in agreement stating that the UK ' will know what it feels like to be "alone" next year ' ( Citing: No access to the Recovery Fund, no access to Single Market & no access to Donald Trump ) I didn't read that as a threat, maybe, maybe not but basically the point being from his perspective was not being able to understand why certain members of the EU ' family ' were presently upsetting the applecart.

22 comments, page 1 of 3

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