EXCLUSIVE: EU Commission admits cost of Brexit – and it’s huge

Brexit will cost the EU 21% of its proposed budget increase for 2021-2027

Brexit Facts4EU.Org reveals shocking analysis from EU report yesterday

Yesterday in Brussels, the EU Commission issued a statement ahead of the EU Summit which Boris Johnson is due to attend next week. A Brexit Facts4EU.Org overnight analysis reveals the true extent of the impact of Brexit on the EU Commission’s finances.

Over ONE-FIFTH of the increase in the next EU budget
Is because of the UK no longer subsidising the EU after a clean break Brexit

This comes from official EU figures, adjusted for inflation
And it does not even include the EU’s ‘off-budget’ expenditure which the UK has been financing

“EU budget for the future - EU budget financing”

Overnight the Brexit Facts4EU.Org team analysed the ‘Communication’ released by the EU Commission yesterday (09 Oct 2019), entitled “EU budget 2021-2027: Time to decide”.

This has been released for discussion at the EU Council Summit which British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to attend next week.

The results make for shocking reading and perhaps show why the EU is so keen to keep the UK in the EU for many years to come.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

EU Budget Statement 09 Oct 2019

After allowing for inflation, Brexit will account for 21% of the increase in the EU’s next budget from Jan 2021
The total real increase is proposed to be €324 billion
€41 billion (21%) of this increase is because EU27 countries have to pay more, based on the UK’s exit
A new carbon/plastics tax is proposed to be introduced at EU level, to fund the EU
EU Defence spending is set to rocket
All rebates are to be abolished, meaning richer countries like the UK would pay far more
The cost for the EU due to Brexit does not even include the EU’s ‘off-budget’ spend, worth billions

Below we show how much the EU Commission will lose on a Clean Break Brexit :-
The loss of their legally-unsubstantiated claim of a minimum €45bn 'divorce bill';
plus the loss they have now revealed for the next budget period.

What does the EU say?

In its report, the EU frames the figures in such a way that “Around 1/8th [of the increased budget] is due to Brexit”. In fact, the EU reveals that this is not based on real numbers after allowing for inflation.

When put in real terms, after inflation, the true impact is that more than one-fifth of the increase in the EU budget will be down to the UK leaving the EU.

It is also worth mentioning that the EU’s proposed budget expects an economic growth of 23% over the period. With most economic assessments now putting the EU’s powerhouse German economy in recession when it reports next month, this growth figure may well prove to be optimistic.

Observations

Imagine if 21% of your proposed increase in household expenditure over the next few years was down to one issue from one supplier. Wouldn’t you want to prevent that from happening?

It is clear that the EU has every reason to keep the UK paying – even after any fake ‘Brexit’ – for many years to come. As things stand, any ‘Brexit’ on 31 October will still result in the UK making massive annual payments to the EU. The only way this would stop is if the UK made a clean break, characterised by some as a ‘no deal Brexit’ but known by us as a 'Clean Break Brexit'.

In reality we believe the EU Commission’s increased costs due to Brexit will be far higher, based on all of the published research we have done into the EU’s ‘off-budget’ funds.

To give one small example, the latest EU budget fails to include a new and extra Defence fund, on top of the massive increases in EU defence spending in the budget. The EU admits that “The European Peace Facility is an off-budget fund outside the Financial Framework”. It amounts to €10.5bn.

We look forward to the BBC reporting the news we have broken above.

Tomorrow we hope to publish our fifth factsheet in the ‘Brexit Fightback Initiative’. This next one will summarise the way the Single Market does not benefit the UK.

We still urgently need sponsors for this important work. Our factsheet one-pager on the Irish border yesterday reached around 100,000 people, as well as MPs. We really hope that more people will support and donate. Thank you.

[ Sources: EU Commission ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, 10 Oct 2019

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Reader Comments 12

1. Patrick F , Thursday, October 10, 2019, 06:14:

It's time to launch a crowdfunding appeal. Dig deep, Remainers. Your project needs you!

2. Carol W , Thursday, October 10, 2019, 06:27:

With the now open collusion of politicians like Bercow, who is acting like an unelected President and getting away with it, the EU has every reason to expect he UK to stay and pay...heavily, it will be vindictive whether we are in or out.
Individual countries are going to have to make their minds up soon about federalisation but the concept of 27 equal partners is laughable whilst so many are financially beholden to Germany and France.
What surprises me is the silence of countries like Sweden: will they be swallowed up by their overwhelming desire to be "nice" to everyone?

3. Faye, Maidstone , Thursday, October 10, 2019, 06:59:

All right EU, don't panic, I do have a contingency plan for you. Strip the salaries of all EU commissioners and all other EU employees to minimum wage. Stop paying expenses. Sell all luxury vehicles. Sell the unneccessary luxurious EU buildings and rent a cheap and cheerful functional office for all of you. That should allow you to replace the budget deficit. After all, the whole EU project is about solidarity, the cause and common aim - in the name of all European nations. At least that's what you tell us. Now you can prove it.

4. Sydney Ashurst , Thursday, October 10, 2019, 07:44:

Little wonder the Brussels Commission by fair means or foul have spent the last three years frightening our Parliamentarians to economic death to keep the monies of the second largest contributor flowing in.
Parliament is in Stasis with a majority of dunderheads conniving through the Benn Act to keep paying in for another three months.
The Benn Act is a delaying exercise, it can never achieve its stated purpose of renegotiating a new WA. An agreement to leave the EU is the last thing the pro-EU MP's want.

5. Concerned , Thursday, October 10, 2019, 08:31:

Each day passes and more and more evidence breaks sunlight and what a sham the European Union is and its real reasons for being.
I hope and pray for a complete exit for Britain. I hope Holland and others follow suit. We leavers love Europe but hate the EU. For me the most important thing is to ensure that the stupidity of Schengen is erased from the whole of the EU. It is a criminal act to not have effective border control and an immense stupidity. Next, the whole world does not have a right to live in the UK, the country creaks at the seams already.
The left are mad. Their dreams are so near to fruition. I sincerely hope we can kill those stupid dreams.

6. Paul A , Thursday, October 10, 2019, 09:09:

Slightly off topic;
No deal was indeed on the ballot paper in 2016, it was called Leave. Each and every Remainer and advocate of Project Fear told us voting to Leave would mean leaving the Single Market, the Customs Union, the jurisdiction of the ECJ and the political structures which is why 17.4 million people voted to Leave.
The fact that radicalised remainers have decided to consistently lie about this doesn't make what they say the truth.

7. Concerned , Thursday, October 10, 2019, 09:26:

Very well said Comment 6, Paul A.
Unfortunately for the remain side they lost the vote. As simple as that, just like every other election ever held in the UK, there is a winning vote and a losing vote.
In all previous elections, people have accepted the result and got on with their life.
However, in the referendum of 2016, we see clearly that there are outside influences and funding from a variety of sources who are diametrically opposed to the successful leave result.
We are indeed in dark times. Anything but leave 31st October 2019 will mean the end of the UK as we know it. Something the remoanians will crack the champagne corks for. Everyone else will weep at the sheer hypocrisy of the entire political establishment.

8. Not4EU●, London , Thursday, October 10, 2019, 09:31:

If a company breaks up as different going concerns, or even if a contributing member of the family leaves home, all sensible parties sit down, review their income & costs (budgets) & adjust to the new reality. Not the EU. As Facts4EU showed in May 2018 , despite knowing that their second largest contributor was leaving, the EU proposed a 17.7% INCREASE to their budget, https://facts4eu.org/articl... . This was, of course, passed by the plastic EU Parliament with promises of inflation busting pay & pension increases for themselves. Smaller EU, fewer people, increased budget. It's the EU way.
This demonstrates that, despite their posturing, that they had secretly included UK continuing contributions & were determined not to allow their Treasure Island to leave their money-laundering cabal. Be in no doubt, they will stop at nothing to prevent us leaving, & the ever more hysterical actions as the date for leaving gets closer show their fear.
This is further confirmed by the open collusion of some in Parliament and outside vested interests, & the less open 'surrender agreement' by our own Govt., to subvert & undermine our leaving, in vain bids to prevent a democratic mandate being implemented, culminating in the finally confirmed collusion of the power-mad & self-appointed God squeaker in subverting our democracy & deliberate destruction of our Constitution, all aided and abetted by 'EU' funded remainstream media & judiciary. It is treason. Plain & simple. They now need to be arrested.
The cesspit of corruption that our once proud institutions becomes ever more obvious to those who had been turning a blind eye. There must & will be retribution for this. It's looking more & more like the only way to remove these EU quizlings will be to forcefully drag them out.

9. kzb , Thursday, October 10, 2019, 09:35:

I don't really understand this article. 21% "of the increase" ? Or do you mean 21% of the whole budget? Please can someone explain the arithmetic?
Also very interested to see all rebates will be stopped, and I am surprised more is not made of this. Without our rebate we will probably be the largest NET contributor, possibly even ahead of Germany.
Although, when looking this up, there seems to be an act of pure spitefulness on the EU website. UK has been deleted from the net expenditure plot, even for previous years ! See for yourselves:
https://ec.europa.eu/budget...

10. Concerned , Thursday, October 10, 2019, 10:18:

Plus of course no successful financial audit has ever been made !!!

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