The big question for Nigel Farage which no-one is asking

Brexit Facts4EU.Org looks at a watershed moment for Brexit

Difficult questions, difficult times

For days we have known something big was about to happen, when a senior individual from the Brexit Party stopped taking our Editor’s calls late last week.

We knew the crisis was about candidate selection but now we know the details. However we are still left with one big question.

The big question for Nigel Farage

The media has understandably been full of commentary about the Brexit Party in the last 24 hours. In fact, it’s the first time that some of the media have given the Party any reasonable amount of coverage in recent weeks.

Most of this coverage has centred on the possible impacts of the Brexit Party’s decision to not to stand in 317 Conservative-held seats, from three perspectives.

Firstly there has been speculation about the electoral impact on the Conservatives, Labour, and the LibDems. Secondly, there has been some discussion about what this decision says about the future of the Brexit Party. And thirdly, individual seats have been mentioned, either asking whether the Brexit Party (TBP) is allowing certain Remainer Tory MPs to go unchallenged by TBP, or why TBP is still contesting a certain marginal Labour or LibDem seat where the Tories stand the best chance.

Surely the bigger question is this:

Why have TBP chosen to stand down in all Conservative-held seats instead of choosing to stand down in around 300 seats on the basis of non-electability and the cause of Brexit?

We will return to this question in a moment, but first let’s look at the new electoral landscape.

A watershed moment

Yesterday represented a pivotal moment in British politics. A fundamental decision was made by TBP. They would no longer stand as a national party in the 2019 General Election.

Let us explain. Fast-forward to the early hours of Friday 13 December, as the results are being reported by Huw Edwards and team on the BBC. One of the key measures they use is voter share – the percentage of the overall vote that each party has received nationally.

Let’s assume for simple arithmetical purposes that the Brexit Party would broadly win 10% of the vote. If they are now only contesting half the seats, their national vote share will be 5%. Hardly impressive.

The Rubicon has been crossed

So, TBP have now made the fundamental step of accepting that one of the key headline figures will make them look insignificant – at least as far as raw statistics are concerned.

Once they have crossed that Rubicon, the next step is to work out where best to deploy resources to maximum effect. There are two main justifications for crossing the Rubicon:

To ensure a majority pro-Brexit government by not splitting the Leave vote
To win a significant number of seats, with perhaps 10 MPs who will then hold the new government to account

This brings us back to the question for Mr Farage

Given that TBP have now accepted they’ve crossed their Rubicon, why did they choose to ally themselves with the Conservative Party, thereby potentially alienating a proportion of their electorate in Labour-held constituencies?

Already the Labour Party is jumping all over this. Here is Jeremy Corbyn’s Twitter feed yesterday:

“One week ago Donald Trump told Nigel Farage to make a pact with Boris Johnson. Today, Trump got his wish. This Trump alliance is Thatcherism on steroids”

Putting aside the inaccuracy of this statement on so many levels, the Labour Party will now be attacking TBP as “the Tory Right”, or similar. This will hardly help TBP’s cause in Labour-held seats.

Observations

Surely TBP could have analysed the constituencies and worked out a plan which didn’t arbitrarily and deliberately favour all Conservative-held seats, including those where arch-Remoaner Tories are standing? If they don’t have the data to do this, we do, and they only had to ask.

Unfortunately a senior member of TBP once told our Editor that “facts don’t matter” in the Brexit debate, so perhaps therein lies part of the answer. (He said this in the context of preferring rallies preaching to the converted.)

It’s not too late

If this new TBP plan had been calculated in such a way as to present the new strategy as a way of delivering a pro-Brexit government, with a reasonable number of TBP MPs to hold it to account, we can’t help feeling this would have been a better approach.

The TBP leadership now have just two days to announce a ‘furtherance’ of the approach to the general election. On Thursday morning all candidates’ election papers must be submitted. After that, candidates’ names and party affiliations will appear on ballot papers, even if they subsequently withdraw.

This could involve a further concentration on constituencies where TBP have a good chance of success, and standing down in constituencies where the only other nominally pro-Brexit party – the Conservatives – might win seats from Labour and the LibDems.

[ Sources: TBP Hartlepool rally | Jeremy Corbyn Twitter feed ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, 12 Nov 2019

Click here to go to our news headlines

And please scroll down to COMMENT on the above article.

Something to say about this? Scroll down for reader comments

Since before the EU Referendum, Brexit Facts4EU.Org
has been the most prolific researcher and publisher of Brexit facts in the world.

Supported by MPs, MEPs, & other groups, our work has impact.

We think facts matter. Please donate today, so that we can continue to ensure a clean Brexit is finally delivered.

Any credit card user

Quick One-off

From £5 - £1,000

Monthly

From £3 per month

Paypal Users Only - Choose amount first

Quick One-off

Monthly

PLEASE NOTE IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO COMMENT : You can write your comment under any existing comments below. After you have clicked to preview your comment, you MUST then click on the CAPTCHA system and send you comment, for it to be published. Thank you!

Reader Comments 25

1. Patrick F , Tuesday, November 12, 2019, 07:57:

Thanks Nigel. You've taken away my choice between pragmatism and principle. My choice as a Leave voter in my constituency of Tunbridge Wells is Remain supporting Tory Greg Clark, Lib Dems, Labour, possibly the Greens, possibly UKIP and possibly an independent who believes newts should rule the earth.
I want to vote, but I cannot vote for these Remain candidates.
So what's left? Hide under the duvet on GE day, or spoil my ballot paper?
Nigel, you've stitched me up. You needed a nuanced seat by seat analysis, not a spreadsheet pored over in the pub.

2. James Bertram , Tuesday, November 12, 2019, 09:12:

Agreed BrexitFacts4EU team, and Patrick - this is either a very poor decision by TBP, or we shall see further developments.
There is no way the Brexit Party should have stood down for the 10 traitorous Tories who were readmitted to their party recently. Likewise, in Guildford, with the arch-remainer Anne Milton now standing as an independent, it was conceivable that the Brexit Party could have won the seat outright, and we should not have given up this seat lightly.
So I very much hope that we will see the Tories stand down in the 100 Labour seats that they have never won, giving the Brexit Party a better opportunity in these seats. That would be best for the Country, giving the Tories 317 seats in Parliament and the Brexit Party and DUP holding the balance of power. That would be the best outcome and that would be the only reason for The Brexit Party to have aligned themselves so whole-heartedly with these Tory scumbags.
Will the self-serving Tories finally put Country before Party? - we will find out by Thursday.

3. Sydney Ashurst , Tuesday, November 12, 2019, 09:51:

Patrick F,
Greg Clark does present a problem for you, you rightly are angry, he is a remainer. You have to ask, if with your vote could the Brexit Party win the seat from the Conservatives. In 2017 the Conservatives took 57% of the votes cast and a 16,465 majority.
The real answer was to have Clark deselected. Many of the remainers are not standing.
What I am angry about is the way the media have been interfering. They have been putting various connotations on how the BP vote will prevent Brexit, none of which are true. The story depends upon whether the media is pro remain or leave.
The wrangling is still going on today, who should stand down. Nigel has made his more than generous offer.
Statistics and logic has it that in a majority of leave voting Labour seats the Conservatives do not stand a cat in hell's chance. Common sense dictates it is the Conservative that should stand down to give the BP candidate a free run, as they have a chance on the LEAVE ticket.
Leave.EU has a big following, so they may be in a position outside of the Media to influence where the Leave vote goes.

4. Catherine, Dollar , Tuesday, November 12, 2019, 09:55:

Agreed. I felt for Nigel Farage when he made the speech yesterday. He was clearly upset.
But yes, he has made a blanket decision against a party set-up which, it seems to me, has no principles.
Nigel still has time to say, Tory party, you're not playing by the rules, so we will field some candidates on 'your' patch.
But the way the Brexit Party campaigns can damage the Tory vote. We individual voters can do so too.
I for one will find it very difficult to vote for the Tory candidate (was Tory MP) here, in a Scottish constituency. And I'm likely to stand up in hustings and say so.

5. tarien , Tuesday, November 12, 2019, 10:11:

Yes 3/ Sydney, it should be the Conservatives that stand down, however Boris Johnson has committed himself and his cabinet to getting the (rotten for Britain) deal cleared away with the EU, who I suspect have been at Johnson's throat continually. I like many, have read the W/A tripe and know it will absolutely ruin this nation's future for being anything other than a vassel under the boot of Europe-wouldn't Hitler be pleased. Somewhow TBP has to carry enough seats so as to strangle any thought of Britain being tied to the EU's deal. 'There will always be an England' as was sung on Rememberance Sunday-let us hope so.

6. Barbara Jell , Tuesday, November 12, 2019, 10:17:

So, Nigel has caved in to the Establishment. This leaves us with the odious choice of recycling our TRASH - some of which is more putrid than the rest - or spoiling our ballot papers. To my fury, and for the first time in my life, I will be spoiling my ballot paper.

7. Sydney Ashurst , Tuesday, November 12, 2019, 10:54:

Have the Conservatives cleaned up their Aegean Stables.
They have only two days to select their final candidates.
Will the replacements be more disciplined in their voting on Brexit.
The size of any majority is crucial to how we leave the EU.
Perhaps Boris may not have to die in ditch to get what he wanted. Come 31st January.

8. Sydney Ashurst , Tuesday, November 12, 2019, 11:43:

Read Richard Littlejohn in the Mail and the comments if you want to know how the man in the street views Nigels decision against that of the CCHQ.

9. tarien , Tuesday, November 12, 2019, 12:00:

Don't spoil your voting paper 6/Barbara Jell- much was sacrificed to give you the opportunity of having a vote-give N Farage & the Brexit party the chance to gain as many seats as is possible from the despicable worthless socialist rabble that will be the ruination of the UK if they succeed. I am an Englishman through many centuries of Englismen, and for me, There'll always be an England,,And England shall be free If England means as much to you, As England means to me. Keep faith and put your cross where your heart is- The W/A will kill us all who want Britain, to be free to make its own decisons without incumberance from those that care not a jot for us.

10. JACQUELINE HEATH , Tuesday, November 12, 2019, 12:37:

What would have been the result of TBP standing in seats where the incumbent is a Tory remainer? Surely it would have split the vote as people were pointing out it would have done had they stood in all 600+ seats. Is it better to have a remainer sneak in through the leave vote being split if that remainer is a Tory or a Labour/Libdem? I would argue that it could be the better option to have a Tory remainer even though it sticks in the craw. Those Tory remainers who are still in position are still there because they mostly haven't defied the government to such an extent that they had the whip withdrawn. Remainers, yes, but weak-willed and wet remainers who, in a push, will do as BJ wants them to do which Labour and LibDem remainers would never do. This still leaves the 10 re-instated Tories for whom there is no excuse and it still leaves thousands of potential Leave voters without a candidate to vote for - even though leave won the referendum - and it still leaves many honourable Labour Leavers unfairly up against TBP opposition and it still leaves Labour able to cry 'TBP is really the Tory Party in disguise'. Was the trade-off worthwhile? Nigel made the decision and we'll all have to live with it but flawed or not, one thing's for sure, it was a better decision than fielding 600+ candidates.

25 comments, page 1 of 3

Add comment:

Please note: Your email address is never published unless you choose to enter it.