Brexit Party leads in latest poll – is it enough?
We look beneath the headlines at the challenge for Brexiteers
Nigel: Screengrab from © Brexit Party video / Chart: © Brexit Facts4EU.Org (clickable version of chart is below)
12 days to go – and is there still a mountain to climb?
Brexiteers may gain some comfort from the latest polling for the EU Parliament elections. This shows the leading pro-Brexit party at no.1, but does this mask a continuing problem?
Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party comes top in the latest UK-wide polling, conducted by Opinium between 03-07 May, with a survey size of 2,000. UKIP comes in at 7th place.
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2019
There is no doubt that a new political party which was founded just four months ago has performed a miracle, in becoming the leading party in opinion polling for the EU Parliament elections which take place in 12 days time on 23 May 2019.
That said, is it enough?
Let’s look ahead to 10pm on Sunday 26 May, when the results are announced. (See below for why there is a 3-day delay.)
Clear Brexit support:
With the Brexit Party on 26% and UKIP on 4%, the two most identifiable pro-Brexit parties account for 30% of the projected vote.
Clear Remain support:
There are five parties whose policies are unequivocally to remain in the EU: the LibDems, the Greens, the SNP, Change UK – the Independent Party, and Plaid Cymru. According to the Opinium poll, these five Remain parties will garner 24% of the vote between them.
Remain support – Labour
To this figure of 24% must be added a substantial element of the Labour vote, and a smaller proportion of the Conservative vote. Approximately two-thirds of Labour voters voted to Remain, in the EU Referendum. If we were to make a giant leap, we could therefore add two-thirds of the Labour projected vote to the ‘Remain side’.
It is worth remembering that the Labour Party’s manifesto for these elections is essentially a Remain manifesto, as we demonstrated in our analysis yesterday.
Remain support – Conservative
When it comes to the Conservative vote, approximately two-thirds of supporters voted Leave. However we know that many Conservative voters have now switched to the Brexit Party for the EU elections. It therefore seems likely that the 13% support for Conservative candidates will come mostly from Remain-supporting Conservatives. We will be generous and say that one-half of the 13% for the Conservatives is still for Brexit.
What does this mean for the pro-Brexit vote?
In our thoroughly unscientific, quick-look, ‘back of a cigarette packet’ analysis, the thoughts above would translate into:-
- Brexit Party: 26%
- UKIP : 4%
- 1/3rd of Labour vote: 8%
- Half of Conservative vote: 6.5%
- TOTAL: 44.5%
IMPORTANT: We must stress that the above is based on wide assumptions and on current polling. In no way is it typical of our usual reporting of facts from EU and Government sources. We have done this to provoke debate. It should also be noted that the Brexit Party has had a meteoric rise in recent weeks. Their vote share may well be higher by the day of the ballot, but the interesting thing will be where those votes come from. Will they affect the overall share of the pro-Brexit vote?
Finally, the EU has delayed the results of the UK vote by 3 days – why?
Readers may be puzzled by the date we gave above for the declarations of results. In the UK we are accustomed to election results being announced during the night following a vote. In the case of the EU Parliament elections, though, the UK has to wait for the rest of the EU to catch up.
Unfortunately, voting across the rest of the EU continues for three days after the UK has voted. This means that the UK can’t announce its results until the polls have closed for all EU citizens, in the late evening of Sunday 26 May.
Why isn’t the potential Brexit vote so much higher?
Since the EU Referendum nearly three years ago, all the Project Fear claims by Remainers of an instant recession, 500,000-820,000 job losses, a flight of companies moving out of the UK and a flight of locusts moving in, it has been clear that the British people were misled on an epic scale.
At the same time, the EU has behaved exactly as we predicted they would. From Juncker’s reaction the day after the vote (“This will not be an amicable divorce”) the EU has proved itself to be vindictive and thoroughly unpleasant.
So why isn’t there now an overwhelming majority for Brexit? We have several answers to this question, but here we would just like to ask one question.
Where’s the meat?
In the last couple of weeks we have been asked by readers who support certain political parties for permission to use some of the one-page leaflets and social media tiles we’ve produced.
Why is this? If you’re manning a stall in a high street, or going door-to-door, you need a range of information to give to voters, depending on what is important to them. Where is this from the parties? One glossy leaflet saying almost nothing about Brexit just doesn’t cut it – especially when voters are so turned off by ‘traditional politics’.
We have also received emails from the people coordinating things on the ground – who do the hard work – telling us that they have never even been introduced to their local MEP candidates. They don’t know their itineraries, and they don’t know which particular messages to push. They tell us communication is extremely poor and that they are being treated like mushrooms.
Now, we’re sure that there must be shining examples of the opposite in places around the country, which we haven’t heard about. All we're saying is that the picture being presented to us is not good.
There are many highly-experienced pro-Brexit organisations like us, with the tools to help. It’s a shame we are not being used effectively by pro-Brexit parties to explain and promote the Brexit cause.
If you can help to keep us producing effective output at this important time for Brexit, the quick and secure donation options are below. Thank you.
[ Sources : Opinium ]
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Sat 11 May 2019
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