IS THE DUP THE TEETERING DOMINO OF BREXIT?

The voice of less than 1.5% of the UK electorate could decide Brexit

The 10 DUP MPs work for the Northern Irish, not for Brexit

Cabinet abstainers

Hammond talks to the DUP yesterday

Yesterday DUP MPs in Westminster met representatives of the Government for talks about backing Mrs May’s surrender treaty. These talks were described as ‘constructive’ by Nigel Dodds MP of the DUP.

Hammond

What is alarming is who they met. Present at the talks were not only David Lidington, (Mrs May’s Remainer deputy), and former Brexiteer Michael Gove, but the Government group also included the Chancellor, arch-Remoaner Philip Hammond. The presence of the latter is the most troubling.

How many people do the 10 DUP MPs represent?

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Total electorate of 10 DUP constituencies : 688,571
Total electorate of the United Kingdom : 46,835,433
The DUP MPs represent just 1.47% of the UK electorate

DUP

Source: Latest 2017 data from the Electoral Commission

The Democratic Unionists have a disproportionate voice in the denouement of Brexit

How many times have you heard it said by pro-Brexit MPs in Westminster that it is the Northern Irish Backstop that is the ultimate red line in the opposition to Mrs May’s surrender treaty?

Yes, the more robust MPs add that Mrs May’s surrender document is unacceptable in many other ways too, but it is the danger of the division of the Union of the Kingdom which has held the ranks of pro-Brexit MPs together.

Having bound themselves to this line of defence, a retreat by one flank – the DUP – thus has the potential for a breach which could lead to a much wider retreat of all Parliamentary Brexit forces.

Could the DUP fold, and back Mrs May’s surrender treaty?

Let’s not forget that Mrs May bought the support of the DUP following her disastrous election result in 2017, in order to secure enough support to govern.

Around £1bn in extra government spending was promised for the Province, in return for a ‘confidence and supply agreement’. Without the ten DUP MPs, Mrs May had no majority in the House and could not govern.

It is hard to imagine just what form of guarantees the Government could offer the DUP over the Backstop to appease them, but if a range of measures were agreed which came with a financial sweetener on top…?

The DUP MPs represent their constituents, not the cause of Brexit. They may be pro-Brexit, but they will always put their constituents first.

Could the DUP start a domino effect amongst members of the ERG?

We have already seen key pro-Brexit figures start to fold, and back Mrs May’s constitutional abomination. Notable amongst these last week was former Brexit Secretary the Rt Hon David Davis MP. He has now said he will vote in favour when she presents her ‘deal’ for the third time next week – assuming that Speaker John Bercow allows this.

If the DUP are offered some kind of deal by the Government, it is quite possible that they will decide to back the surrender document. Having studied the latest legal advice from the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox we can’t imagine what the Government could offer that would be acceptable to the DUP, but in today’s world anything is surely possible.

If the DUP topple, it is certain that many ERG MPs will use this as sufficient justification for changing their position.

Observations

If the DUP and many ERG MPs fall, is this enough for Mrs May?

No. Even if all 10 DUP MPs and many ERG MPs then chose to back the PM’s appalling surrender treaty, she would still need the support of many dissident Labour MPs, unless Jeremy Corbyn changes the Labour Party’s position.

The arithmetic of this is discussed on many mainstream media sites and is only speculation, so we will continue to focus on our main role in promoting democracy and the cause of a true, clean WTO Brexit to deliver certainty to the British public on 29 March.

We hope you found the information above to be useful in your overall perspective on Brexit. If you can help us to keep going in these critical days, the links to donate are below.

[ Sources : Electoral Commission | ONS ]

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, 16 Mar 2019

Something to say about this? Scroll down for reader comments

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Reader Comments 14

1. Not4EU, London , Saturday, March 16, 2019, 07:46:

7 of the 10 DUP constituencies voted to leave. If they vote for May's WA they will be as guilty of betrayal of our country as the Govt and other MPs. I hope that they stand strong.
We have already seen that shovels of money have 'changed' some MPs' minds. There is a word for that, it's bribery on behalf of the EU as let's be honest, that's who the majority of our Govt represent. The people's conclusion can only be corruption. It's no different to the paid EU shills outside Parliament - the rate, I understand, appears to be £18 p day. It would seem that the only support the EU has has to be paid for.
Whether the remainstream media are to be believed - after all, they print the narrative, oops sorry 'reality' that they want to frighten MPs into believing that they are in a minority, the EU Govt appear to be trying a twin approach.
In addition to shovels of money to 'vote for the 'deal', rumours abound that May will 'promise' to go, but only if they vote through her surrender. Nothing will make it clearer to all Conservatives that the 'Party' (which will be eviscerated) is more important than the independence & sovereignty of our country. If they believe that, I have a bridge to sell them.
This woman has lied to the electorate. She has lied to the House. Think that she won't lie to you for her beloved EU? They had a chance to be in power for several terms simply for doing as instructed. They have preferred to remain a puppet regime of an unaccountable foreign power.
None will be forgiven for the treachery of handing our country to a foreign power and it won't be accepted by the people.
Many people WILL be leaving the EU on 29th March. We will not go quietly into the night. It will NEVER go back to the way it was (despite the fantasies of some). The genie is out of the bottle. Our politics will never be the same again. The corruption & political machinations for personal gain must be rooted out. MPs are either with us or against us. GoWTO.

2. OnlyTheTruth , Saturday, March 16, 2019, 09:16:

You're forgetting that Northern Ireland voted remain. They deserve to be free of all this Brexit nonsense and so do we.

3. Sydney Ashurst , Saturday, March 16, 2019, 10:39:

Raising a wry smile by Alistair Deacon - Brexpletives (noun). The considered response to the news that Parliament has now voted against every conceivable Brexit outcome.

4. Chris , Saturday, March 16, 2019, 10:47:

May lost by 149 last time, so she needs 75 MPs to change their minds. I just don't see that happening, even if Bercow allows the vote at all. He may just begrudgingly allow it, but he won't allow a fourth vote.
I can see why David Davis has sold out, and that is because he has an eye on the inevitable leadership contest when May resigns in a few weeks or months time. He needs to appeal to leavers and remainers alike.
I see that Nick Boles has resigned from his Conservative Association, pre-empting deselection, so he will presumably join the Tiggers.

5. barbara Jell , Saturday, March 16, 2019, 10:58:

I quite agree 'only the Truth', We do indeed deserve to be FREE - FREE from the sclerotic shackles of a monstrous Federalist dictatorship as was voted for by the WINNERS of the biggest democratic Referendum in history. FREE to determine our own destiny. Do yourself a favour and do your homework and also respect DEMOCRACY.

6. Patrick F , Saturday, March 16, 2019, 11:15:

Only the fake, you're forgetting that Northern Ireland is part of the UK.

7. OnlyTheTruth , Saturday, March 16, 2019, 12:19:

Yes, Patrick Fake but the people of Northern Ireland voted to remain just like the Scots. Maybe it's because they're less susceptible to the bias of the London BBC.

8. notonEUrnelly , Saturday, March 16, 2019, 13:51:

only the truth, so which way do you think the London BBC bias leans?

9. Ashley Great Britain , Saturday, March 16, 2019, 20:56:

Yes only the fake,the BBC is biased. Your living on another planet mate.

10. Steven , Sunday, March 17, 2019, 03:43:

Whatever eventually happens to the fate of Brexit, I earnestly hope this hideous fake withdrawal deal gets voted down again. ANY MP who votes for it should be utterly ashamed of themselves (this especially applies to supposed Brexit-supporting Tories who if they endorse it will reveal themselves to be totally fake Brexiters and terminally stupid to boot). So bad is this ‘Remain With Chains’/ become an effective colonial outpost of Brussels deal that those MPs who vote for it should be arrested by the security services of this realm for endangering the nation’s continued existence. On no possible account must this wretched treaty for the subjugation of our nation pass! The DUP and others MUST stand firm and reject it again though it should be as dead as a dodo at this point in time!

14 comments, page 1 of 2

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