Which leadership candidates get the Brexit Seal of Approval?

Brexit Facts4EU.Org presents its summary of the Conservative leadership contest

Below is our summary of the ten current candidates for Prime Minister. We have condensed the issues surrounding Brexit in an attempt to bring some clarity to the choice facing Conservative MPs and ultimately the membership of the Party.

We started out by looking at the actions, rather than the words, of the candidates. How did they vote in the Referendum and on the key motions over the past six months?

A defining issue for us and many readers is what the candidates have said about leaving the European Union on 31 October 2019. We looked not just at what they said but how they said it, in an attempt to gauge whether they really will implement a full exit by that date.

Of necessity some of the results below involved subjective judgements, but these are based on the facts we have and on our experience in assessing true intent. Where we have answered ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to some basic questions, these might well be contested by some of the candidates, but we suggest that readers might want to see unequivocal statements on these matters before knowing if they can put their trust in them.

Brexit Facts4EU.org Summary

Candidates for leadership and Prime Minister

All candidates voted for Mrs May’s surrender treaty at least once
Only four candidates are committing to an exit on 31 October
So far we have awarded our Brexit Seal to just two of these: Esther McVey and Dominic Raab

Candidate

EU Ref vote

May's deal

Exit 31 Oct
with no deal?

Defining quote for
Leave reliability or not

Michael Gove
Environment Secretary

Remain backers: Ed Vaizey, Nicky Morgan, Oliver Letwin

Voted Leave

Constituency Leave vote:
51.9%

Voted for it
3 times

Would still negotiate May's deal: Yes

Would extend: Yes

"I'll delay leaving the EU if it gets us a better deal"

Matt Hancock
Health Secretary

Remain backers: Stephen Hammond, Damian Green, Caroline Spelman, David Lidington

Voted Remain

Constituency Leave vote:
63.25%

Voted for it
3 times

Would still negotiate May's deal: Yes

Would extend: Yes

"I'm an optimist…No Deal will not get through the House of Commons."
"We don't need a leaver, we need a leader"

Mark Harper
Former Chief Whip

Remain backers: Jackie Doyle-Price

Voted Remain

Constituency Leave vote:
57.89%

Voted for it
1 time

Would still negotiate May's deal: Yes

Would extend: Yes

"It is not going to be possible to leave on 31st October"

Jeremy Hunt
Foreign Secretary

Remain backers: Amber Rudd, Vicky Ford, Alan Duncan

Voted Remain

Constituency Remain vote:
59.25%

Voted for it
3 times

Would still negotiate May's deal: Yes

Would extend: Yes

"Without a deal, any PM who promised to leave by a certain date would have to call a General Election to change the Parliamentary arithmetic."

Sajid Javid
Home Secretary

Remain backers: Simon Hoare, Lucy Allan, Robin Walker, Stephen Crabb, Caroline Nokes, Victoria Atkins

Voted Remain

Constituency Leave vote:
55.37%

Voted for it
3 times

Would still negotiate May's deal: Yes

Would extend: Yes

"We must focus on what we need to get a deal which can be agreed... We know the only thing that has got through our Parliament successfully is the Withdrawal Agreement with backstop provisions amended to include a time limit or exit clause."

Boris Johnson
Former Foreign Secretary

Remain backers: Damian Collins, James Brokenshire, Robert Buckland

Voted Leave

Constituency Leave vote:
57.19%

Voted for it
1 time

Yes?

Would still negotiate May's deal: Yes

Would extend: No?

'“If I get in we’ll come out, deal or no deal, on October 31st.” “My duty will be to get our country ready for the very, very small possibility of coming out without a deal on WTO terms. It is only by being ready to deliver it that you will get the deal that we need.”

Andrea Leadsom
Former Leader of the House

Remain backers: None

Voted Leave

Constituency Leave vote:
53.34%

Voted for it
3 times

Yes

Would still negotiate May's deal: Yes

Would extend: No

"Leaving the EU on the 31st of October is, for me, a hard red line," "In all circumstances we are leaving the European Union on the 31st of October this year."

Esther McVey
Former Work and Pensions Secretary

Remain backers: None

Voted Leave

Constituency Remain vote:
54.37%

Voted for it
1 time

Yes

Would still negotiate May's deal: No

Would extend: No

"I think you need to have people who believe in Brexit to deliver this by 31 October."

Dominic Raab
Former Brexit Secretary

Remain backers: None

Voted Leave

Constituency Remain vote:
58.43%

Voted for it
1 time

Yes

Would still negotiate May's deal: Yes

Would extend: No

“We should revert with a final offer to overhaul the backstop… It would be a final attempt to bridge the gap with the EU ... Leaving on WTO terms is not the preferred outcome, but it is better than leaving with a flawed deal. If the EU refuse to move, we must leave by the end of October.”

Rory Stewart
International Development Secretary

Remain backers: Nicholas Soames, Ken Clarke, David Gauke

Voted Remain

Constituency Leave vote:
55.2%

Voted for it
3 times

Would still negotiate May's deal: Yes

Would extend: Yes

"... but in the end, a deal with the European Union will look quite a lot like this deal." (the WA) "Still the quickest, surest way of getting Brexit done is to get that deal [the WA] through."

Please note: After this article was published, the Daily Telegraph wrote a piece on Dominic Raab where they said “Unlike his main rivals, he never voted for the Prime Minister’s deal.” They then compounded their error by saying “The former Brexit Secretary, having never caved and voted for Mrs May’s deal, could position himself as the last of the diehards”.

The Telegraph is wrong. Mr Raab voted for Mrs May's surrender treaty ("Withdrawal Agreement") on the third occasion. Our information above is correct, as readers would expect.

Observations

Whilst Boris Johnson and Andrea Leadsom have both said they will stick to the 31 October deadline, for different reasons they don’t get a Brexit Seal just yet. In Boris’ case he flip-flopped before the Referendum before coming out for Brexit at the last minute. He has not said much in the contest so far and we are waiting to hear what he says at his campaign launch today.

In Andrea Leadsom’s case she voted for the Withdrawal Agreement three times – principally because she remained in the Cabinet. Whilst she has said that leaving on 31 October is “a hard red line” for her, it is difficult to ignore the three years that she has been supporting Mrs May’s strategy and then Mrs May's appalling surrender treaty.

Note: Where we refer to 'Remain backers' in the table above, we have only included MPs who are reasonably well-known.

Dominic Raab made it over the line and won a Brexit Seal partly because of the BBC4 documentary, where it was clear that the EU side disliked his strongly pro-Brexit negotiating style - before it was overruled by Mrs May.

We are sure that readers will have their own views on the candidates and some will differ from ours. The list above will be amended as the contest progresses and as positions become clearer.

[ Sources : Hansard | Electoral Commission | Prof Hanretty, Royal Holloway | Public statements ]

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, 12 June 2019

Something to say about this? Scroll down for reader comments

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Reader Comments 16

1. Patrick F , Wednesday, June 12, 2019, 06:12:

Of all the stats, the one that struck me most is the 10 candidates listed
represent leave voting constituencies.
My gut feel: Boris wins, we're still in the EU in 2019, the EU make a cosmetic change to the backstop, Labour get their Customs Union, the EU get our £39 billion, we sign May's rebranded WA in June 2020 and we're all told "that's Brexit" and "the country has now come together".....apart from Scotland who get their second referendum.
Keep going Facts4eu. We need you more than ever!
REPLY FROM BREXIT FACTS4EU - Thank you. Just one correction: three of the candidates represent Remain constituencies. We showed the Leave percentage in each case and where this was below 50% it meant that Remain voters were in the majority. We see how this is confusing so we will amend the table to show Remain majorities in the constituencies of the three candidates concerned.
Still, 7 out of 10 candidates represent Leave seats.

2. Sydney Ashurst , Wednesday, June 12, 2019, 06:48:

The most scathing comment in the press yesterday on the 'shower' was by Allison Pearson in the Telegraph.
Whatever Michael Gove put up his nose, he’s blown it now. Having been the Minister for Justice and authorised a draconian lifetime ban on any teacher found to have taken cocaine does, I’m afraid, set the bar pole-vaultingly high for hypocrisy. By stabbing Boris in the back during the previous 2016 leadership race, Michael Gove personally ensured that we would have to endure three hellish years of May Purgatory.
As a nation that has had it up to the back teeth with Brexit must now endure six long weeks of a leadership contest which is already almost too excruciating to watch. Seriously, you find yourself thinking, are these really the best people they can find to lead the UK out of its present predicament? Cometh the hour, cometh the shower. Several of the candidates appear frankly delusional.
The bizarre levels of self-persuasion in the higher echelons of the Conservative Party that an endorsement from Amber Rudd is viewed as a major victory for Jeremy Hunt, when any sane person knows it’s the snog of death. “Serious times require a serious leader,” announced Rudd as she backed Hunt. What, you mean a leader like the useless one Amber propped up for the past two years

3. John T, Devon , Wednesday, June 12, 2019, 07:34:

The ones who say they would still negotiate May's appalling deal but would not leave without a deal are completely deluded and learnt nothing. The EU would have no reason whatsoever to change the WA. Unless we have a new approach from a strong and charismatic leader things won't improve and all we'll have is a fudged Brexit or none at all. We can kiss goodbye to what we voted for and to democracy altogether at the same time.

4. Concerned Expat , Wednesday, June 12, 2019, 08:19:

Having read this I would not let Rory Stewart anywhere near power. I am left with two Dominic Raab and as deputy PM Esther McVey. Or Boris Johnson and Andrea Leadsom - all others fail to meet the mark. I would not trust any of the others.
My personal preference would be Dominic Raab and as deputy PM Esther McVey.
What I can say 100% for certain, if we don't leave by 31st Oct. and an extension is applied for, or no deal is forbidden or prorogue is not permitted then the Conservative party rightly will never get power again and they don't deserve to anyone after the ladt 3 years of fudge. What is at stake is the whole of the United Kingdom, thanks to the fudge and remainers who refuse to accept a vote against them. It is as serious a threat to the nation as that. Add to that the EU is dedicated to eradicating the nation state, Europe is in a bad shape and only deteriorate until the end of the EU.
To all those still clamouring for a second referendum, I can only say you have not implemented the second one yet! The first 40-odd years ago took us in thanks to that cheat Heath. The second one 3 years ago, so far has been ignored.

5. James Bertram , Wednesday, June 12, 2019, 09:43:

Off-topic: Peterborough update.
Article today in The Conservative Woman: Tories’ mysterious silence over ‘dodgy’ by-election
By Michael St George - June 12, 2019.
Extract: '...Pressure is mounting on the Electoral Commission to mount a formal investigation, and as this article was being completed unconfirmed reports were circulating that Peterborough Council had launched its own investigation after numerous complaints....'
Of wider interest, the occupations of councillors can be viewed on the Peterborough City Council website under Council - Councillors - Your Councillors - a named Councillor - Register of Interests.

6. John , Wednesday, June 12, 2019, 09:46:

It's picking the best from a bad bunch,like you if you twisted my arm up my back and forced me too pick,I too would pick Raab. Not sure about Esther McVey,would prefer some one who was not in Mays cabinet and who have stuck by honouring the result. Baker and Redwood spring to mind.

7. andy , Wednesday, June 12, 2019, 09:49:

Thank you for yet another excellent summary.
Incidentally, Rory Stewart is a male version [can I say that?] of Mrs May. I'm sure the Brexit party and Labour would welcome him as the new PM!

8. Chris , Wednesday, June 12, 2019, 10:30:

Following his recent meeting with Steve Baker, Priti Patel and others, Boris is on record as saying that May's deal is dead, and he is going with Steve's plan. He has even repeated some of the words and phrases used in the Baker document. So, unless he is lying, your summary of BJ is wrong.
We desperately need a charismatic, inspirational, pro-Brexit leader, and Boris is the only credible candidate. Crucially, he is also good friends with Trump, which should smooth the path to a speedy FTA with America.
Any attempt to recycle May's WA would be electoral suicide for the Tories, and Boris knows that.

9. Christopher , Wednesday, June 12, 2019, 10:39:

It would be great if just one of them was honest about the whole mess. What was promised was a fantasy and cannot be delivered. The new deal with the EU was always going to be far worse than the current arrangement, this fact was dismissed as "project fear" during the referendum. Brexit isn't about trade at all. It's always been about immigration. Not one of these muppets is capable of negotiating a preferential trade deal with the EU or US or Asia. We have ruined our country's economy for the next 50 years.

10. Not4EU, London , Wednesday, June 12, 2019, 11:15:

The uninspiring wet flannel list of runners and riders show that the Conservative Party have not listened, or learned anything in three years & are clearly demonstrating that they intend to continue to ignore the electorate, progress the scorched earth policies of May and remain obedient servants of their masters, the EU bureaucrats. Why don't they just call themselves Lib Dems?
The current shenanigans in Parliament also shows that the other parties too have neither listened, learned nor care about the electorate. The majority have lost any sense of objectivity where the EU is concerned. It has become their drug of choice & will blindly do anything to keep us in the EU cult. They really are unfit for public office serving this country's interests.
I would like to know the candidates' views on the current Tilbrook Court case, & whether they would cede or contest it if successful, and also on Sir Bill Cash's assertions of unlawful actions in the so-called 'extensions', and their reasoning.
I want to know what they intend to do regarding the intentional abuses of our constitutional norms & the EU bias of our senior snivel serpents and broadcast media.
I would like to know why they (except Gove who has said that it could be earlier) are all determined to keep us 'in' until the last possible second, currently 31st October.
I want to know why they are talking of 'preparing' for a possible WTO exit, when everything should have been in place by 29th March.
I want to know why those seeking to 'renegotiate' the unnegotiable Treaty seem only concerned about the 'backstop'.
All in all, a sorry shower of incompetent 'managers' with less spine than a jellyfish. One or two show some promise but will fail due to the number of non-conservatives in the conservative party.

16 comments, page 1 of 2

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