What will happen in the next 48 hours?

Late EU “concession”, pro-Remain Speaker will break more rules, Remain side will take more control of Parliament

The PM will flourish a document, possibly as early as this evening but more likely to be tomorrow, purporting to contain further concessions on the draft Withdrawal Agreement (WA). This will be all fluff and the text of the WA will remain the same.

Nevertheless the Prime Minister will pretend that it somehow removes or severely mitigates the vexatious problem of the ‘Backstop’ – the mechanism which turns Northern Ireland into a protectorate of the Irish Republic and locks the UK into servitude to the EU indefinitely.

It will do no such thing. It will be a typical fudge which has no basis in law. If the EU were going to change their position why not do so in the WA, where it has legal meaning? In any event the WA is totally unacceptable on dozens of levels, even aside from the Backdrop.

The lateness of this intervention by the EU is deliberate. They will give no time for MPs to be properly briefed on its inadequacy before casting their vote.

More MPs will switch sides and back the PM

Four more Conservative MPs have switched sides this weekend and are now backing Mrs May’s atrocious deal: Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Con, Cotswolds), Sir Edward Leigh (Con, Gainsborough), Andrew Murrison (Con, South West Wiltshire), and Caroline Johnson (Con, Sleaford and North Hykeham).

Expect more MPs to defect to Mrs May’s deal based on her flimsy piece of paper from the EU. We still expect the WA to be rejected in the vote on Tuesday evening, but by a smaller majority than most commentators have indicated. ‘Rebellions’ have a habit of diminishing in size when it comes to the actual vote. We also expect to see a few abstentions, which of course shows a weak-minded MP who should not be in the job.

How the Brexiteer MPs may have miscalculated

We now know that the laid-back attitudes of some senior Brexiteer MPs in relation to the UK leaving the EU on 29th March “come what may, because it’s the law” have been grossly miscalculated.

Last week the arch-Remain Speaker John Bercow overthrew centuries of Parliamentary protocols to allow equally arch-Remain MP Dominic Grieve to amend legislation. This amendment now gives the PM three working days to come back with something better.

There is no question in our minds that this week Speaker will once again throw the rulebook out of the window. MPs are plotting to use procedures which cannot in theory be used, to block #GoWTO - an exit on WTO terms.

The anti-democratic Remainer MPs will probably win

The likes of Mr Rees-Mogg have been telling us for many months that this is not possible. We begged to differ, which is why we have been working tirelessly since the Referendum, seven days a week, and have launched public campaigns since last summer to pressure MPs using the power of ordinary people.

In the coming days we expect that wholly unprecedented, unconstitutional, and disgraceful tactics will be used by anti-democratic MPs, aided and abetted by the Speaker. In ordinary times this would turn into a constitutional crisis. Under this Government and in this Parliament, however, it almost passes for normal.

We believe that MPs will in effect try to wrestle control of Parliament from the executive (the Government) in order to revoke Article 50 or seek an extension to it, thereby prolonging the agony and risking Brexit being lost completely in the end.

The other certainty is that Mrs May will do anything to prolong her tenure as Prime Minister. Expect her to do a volte face on every promise she has ever made if she thinks it will help to keep her in power.

So is it too late to do anything?

Definitely not. Now more than ever we need to step up the pressure on MPs to respect the Referendum result.

We know many MPs who are honourable and hard-working. Sadly many more will put their jobs and their careers before the views of their electorates and the interests of the country.

This is one way we can stop and make them think. Threaten their jobs. Send one of our flyers today, preferably by post, and then follow up with calls and emails to their Westminster offices and their local associations. Leave them in doubt how you feel.

“But my MP has a huge majority, he/she won’t care”

1. Weight of opinion

There are may ways things can go this week and in the next few weeks. Every strong democratic opinion received by an MP will make a marginal difference to what they will decide to do – particularly on the more controversial actions which arch-Remain MPs will propose.

2. Power

MPs all want their party to be in government. This allows the policies they believe in to be carried out and it also offers them the chance for a job as a PPS, an Under-Secretary, a Minister or more.

If MPs feel that the support for their party will be under threat by millions of people, this can make a difference. Even if they get re-elected, they will not get a job in government if their party is not in power.

Go on, do it now

Please act today. If you’re writing your own letter rather than using one of our leaflets, even better. But please keep it short and please keep it to one main topic – democracy and respecting the vote. Don’t tell them why leaving the EU is a good idea. You are not going to change their minds now.

Just tell them to vote down the Withdrawal Agreement, respect the Referendum result in full - whatever their feelings - and #GoWTO - or they will lose your vote forever.

See the Go WTO page for a menu of links to possible flyers / letters

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