If Corbyn wins - and by less than 4% - should Boris demand a “People’s Vote”?
Brexit Facts4EU.Org contrasts the EU Referendum result with the General Election on Thursday
When is a massive vote by the British people actually valid?
It is official Labour policy to re-negotiate the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, and to tie the UK much more closely to the EU. They will then hold another Referendum, with the options being their re-negotiated de facto Remain agreement versus remaining in the EU as at present. There will be no ‘Leave’ option on the ballot paper.
Below we have analysed the raw data from the Electoral Commission to bring readers some surprising facts about democracy in the United Kingdom.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary
The EU Referendum versus the last general election
- In 2017 the Conservative government of Theresa May retained power following the General Election
- The margin between the Conservatives and Labour was just 2.35% - a difference of 758,766 votes
- The margin in the EU Referendum was 3.8% - a difference of 1,269,501 votes
- This margin to leave the EU was 67% larger than that between Conservatives and Labour at the 2017 election
© Brexit Facts4EU.Org - click to enlarge
If Jeremy Corbyn wins by 3.8% or less, should Boris Johnson demand a “People’s Vote”?
One of two men will lead a United Kingdom government after Thursday’s general election: Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn.
In either case the result could mean that they win enough seats to lead a majority government, or be forced to put together either a formal coalition or a “confidence and supply” arrangement with another party or parties. A third option is to attempt to govern with a minority in Parliament, but as the largest party.
Putting aside the politics, at what point does the margin of victory become a cause for re-running the vote?
Whatever the result on Thursday, it is worth asking questions in advance about the possible result
In the 2017 election Theresa May’s Conservative party received just ¾ million more votes than Labour. This represented a margin of just 2.35%.
In the 2016 EU Referendum, the margin between Leave and Remain was much higher. Leave won by over 1.25 million votes. That’s a margin of 3.8% and it’s a full 67% greater than the margin achieved by Theresa May which allowed her to govern the country.
Which decision of the British people had more legitimacy?
Elections versus the EU Referendum
Yes, of course we understand the differences between a binary choice referendum and a multiple choice general election, but the point about democracy is still valid.
Remainers might just want to reflect on the fact that a general election usually results in Her Majesty’s Government facing Her Majesty’s Official Opposition, so in a sense the outcome is usually binary.
Remainers might also try to argue that a government is for five years whereas a referendum decision to leave the EU is for life, but they have rather shot themselves in the foot on that argument.
They have refused to respect the result of the largest democratic vote in British history. By their own admission they now wish to have another referendum, so the EU Referendum was not a ‘once in a generation’ decision in their eyes.
In the case of the SNP this point becomes even more stark. Not only do the Remainer SNP wish to overturn the ‘once in a generation’ EU Referendum of 2016, they also wish to overturn the ‘once in a generation’ referendum of the Scottish people in 2014 to stay part of the United Kingdom.
The post-democratic revival and evolution
Great Britain led the World with the industrial revolution. The United Kingdom Parliament is still referred to as “the mother of all parliaments”.
Perhaps the EU Referendum was the start of the worldwide post-democratic revival. If this is to be the case then the fight to regain our democratic rights from those who would trample all over them has only just begun.
Judging from this general election we still have a long road ahead of us.
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[ Sources: The Electoral Commission ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.
Brexit Facts4EU.Org, 09 Dec 2019
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