Whatever happened to support for a normal, “No Deal” Brexit?

76% of “No Deal” supporters intend to vote Conservative, says YouGov

Lucy Harris MEP, © YouTube / Lance Forman

Only 11% of “No Deal” supporters will back the Brexit Party

As all readers know, opinion polls are not elections. They give a snapshot of electors’ views, and much depends on sampling methods and the way questions are phrased. That said, an article yesterday by YouGov provides overwhelming evidence in relation to the voting intentions of those voters who favour a “no deal” Brexit.

MAJOR CAVEAT: Whilst YouGov’s article was published only yesterday, the polling data comes from 11-13 November – three weeks ago. This was before voters knew who was even standing in their constituencies. See our ‘Observations’ for more on this.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

The big switch by the strongest Brexiteers from backing the Brexit Party
to backing the Conservatives

  • In May 2019, 80% of voters favouring ‘No Deal’ intended to vote for the Brexit Party
  • Six months later, by mid-Nov 2019, 76% of voters favouring ‘No Deal’ intended to vote Conservative
  • Just 11% of ‘No Deal’ supporters intended to vote for the Brexit Party

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org - click to enlarge

Source data from article and survey by © YouGov – article published 05 Dec 2019

Four Brexit Party MEPs switch to supporting Conservatives

On Wednesday the Brexit Party whip was removed from John Longworth MEP, the former head of the British Chambers of Commerce. Yesterday (Thur 05 Dec 2019), three MEPs – Lance Forman, Annunziata Rees-Mogg, and Lucy Harris – resigned the whip of their own accord. All four went on to recommend voting Conservative in the General Election next Thursday.

Readers can watch them explain their reasons in their video below.

- Source: YouTube, original link is here.

Observations

Readers will have their own views and everyone is welcome to comment below. (Please always remember to ‘publish’ your comments after previewing them – something some readers forget to do!)

The interesting question is why the majority of Brexiteers who supported a “No Deal” Brexit as their preferred option in May, have switched to backing the Conservatives six months later in the General Election, given that this implies support (or acceptance) of Boris Johnson’s revised Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration.

There are many claims about Mr Johnson’s ‘deal’, but one thing it is not is a ‘No Deal’ Brexit. Several of his statements have been incompatible with the contents of the legal documents, and it remains to be seen how he intends to reconcile these with the EU if he is elected Prime Minister.

On 18 October 2019, the day after the Prime Minister agreed his revised ‘deal’ with Brussels, we published our first analysis of it. Readers can remind themselves of this here.

As always, Brexit Facts4EU.Org maintains a party-neutral position.

Finally, we must stress that the YouGov article published yesterday relates to data collected from 11-13 November. Nevertheless the picture it shows is so dramatic that we thought readers would like to be aware of it.

CHRISTMAS APPEAL : If you would like us to keep bringing you incisive and original articles each day, we need your support. In the last four years if we had had the massive funding enjoyed by the Remain campaigns – and to a lesser extent by some Brexit organisations – we could have done so much more.

As it is, we’ve produced more original and highly-researched articles than anyone else. You can help to keep us going with a donation, using one of the quick and secure donation methods below this article. Thank you.

[ Sources: YouGov article 05 Dec 2019 | YouTube - Lance Forman ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, 06 Dec 2019

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